Hi folks, I have been watching the DK Senate tracker, which has been steady at 48 D for several weeks. Today it dipped to 47 D. Is this correct? More under the squiggly.
Both Sam Wang and 538 have showed a recent uptick in Dem chances. For example, in Sam Wang's Sentate trendline (here), the Dems' number of simulated seats has risen for several days straight. And at 538, I can't find the history, but I know that today's chances for Dem control (here) is 39.3%, and earlier in the week it was in the low thirties.
So according to Wang and 538, Dems are on a upward trajectory, but our own tracker shows the opposite. What gives?