Supporters of Michelle Nunn GOTV in Georgia. What are YOU doing to get out the vote?
Last week I took a look at just how close this election is, where a swing of just 2-3 points in Democratic performance is the difference between a great night and a nightmare scenario. This post is an update based on the latest batch of polling.
Using the poll aggregator at the Huffington Post, I've compiled the current state of the hottest races this cycle, as well as what would happen if Dems shift the numbers a mere two points, then three points.
There hasn't been much major movement since the last poll. Republicans seem to be expanding their lead in the Arizona governor's race, while Democrats seem to have pulled away in the Rhode Island governor's race. Everything else? We're talking float, or even crappy polling. For example, Republican incumbent Gov. Sean Parnell in Alaska has gone from a 4-point deficit in the last writeup to a one-point advantage this time. What changed? A CBS/NYT/YouGov poll showing Parnell leading 42-39. The margin of error on that poll? NINE PERCENT.
But again, I like these numbers as a worst-case scenario baseline, so despite myriad caveats we could assign, let's take these numbers at face value. Because whether they're spot on or undercounting Democratic numbers based on likely voter screens assuming 2010 turnout, fact is, this is still a 50-50 election, and everything will hinge on turnout.
In the Senate, the numbers have us losing every battleground state except for North Carolina (where Dems are rocking the early vote) and Michigan. That means loses in Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Iowa, Louisiana, Montana, South Dakota, and West Virginia, and no pickups in either Georgia, Kansas, or Kentucky. Thus, a 53-47 Mitch McConnell Senate.
But if we GOTV like hell and outperform the polls (which already appears to be happening in several places), and suddenly we hold Iowa, pick up Kansas and (maybe) Georgia, and we have a tied race in Colorado. That likely means a Democratic Senate. And at that point, the rest of the races are just 1-2 point GOP leads, so Dems would be within reach of holding the bulk of these seats.
In the governor races, Dems can go from a ho-hum night to a blockbuster night. Take the data at face value, and Democrats pick up Pennsylvania and Kansas, lose Arkansas, and are tied in Connecticut (D), Florida (R), and Maine (R). So basically, anywhere from a net gain of 0-3 seats. However, gain those three GOTV points, and we're looking at gains in Alaska, Florida, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, with just that single loss in Arkansas. Georgia is also tied. So a net gain of 6-7 seats.
Of course, we could always underperform the polls because we sat on our asses and watched from the sidelines. And in that case ... you can do the math.
This all comes down to GOTV. We work harder than they do, turn out more people than they do, we can really take this lemon of an election cycle and make delicious, refreshing lemonade out of it. And just imagine, if Republicans can't win this cycle, when everything is stacked in their favor, forget about them winning any other time.
The most effective GOTV you can do? Talk to your friends, families, and co-workers. No one has more influence in how they vote than YOU. (Seriously, that's been scientifically proven.) And that's something everyone here can do, no excuses. It doesn't take money, it takes minimal time.
For those who can do more, you can make calls to get our partisans to the polls, or you can donate those last three bucks to a worthy campaign. In an election when hundreds of votes may decide key races, every last bit of effort on your part makes a real difference.