As discussed in a recent post, I am getting more interested in Kansas at the moment, and whether the Moderate Republicans can capitalise on the current anger against Brownback.
I had a wide range of questions when I looked at Kansas, including:
Who are the Moderate Republicans in the State House, and how many are there ? How many gains / losses did they make in the primary ? And is there (mathematically at least) a chance of a Moderate Coalition if there are enough Dems and Moderate GOP.
NOTE: I am not advocating that Kansas voters should vote for Moderate Republicans, by all means please vote for Paul Davis and the Dems ! This diary is essentially my research into trying to understand the influence of the Moderate Republicans in the State House, given so many veteran Moderates support the three Dems running for Gov, Lt Gov and SoS.
SHORT VERSION
So for those that would fall asleep reading the long version, the Kansas State House of Representatives is 125 strong. This means you need 63 for a Majority. There are 32 Dems in the current State House, and you would need 31 GOP Moderates to form a Moderate Coalition (This may not be realistic, but just trying to see what vague possibility might exist). There are currently at a fairly broad definition of Moderate, around 18 Moderates, including a recent Dem who switched parties. Although there are a several Conservative Republicans who are being targeted for not being Koch Drones who could theoretically vote for a Moderate Speaker, they would not be useful in winding back too much legislation I would have thought.
I cant see any Moderate Republicans that lost their primary. The one Moderate who retired, Vern Swanson, has his wife running in his place, who won the GOP primary.
The Moderates have picked up an Open Obama seat, with Linda Gallagher winning the 23rd (or the Dems will win it) and the open 125th seat in the South Western corner of the State. The Moderates also defeated the Conservative Incumbent Josh Powell to claim the 50th District.
Therefore there should be 21 Moderate Republicans after the elections (assuming the Moderates win their races). So combined if the Dems hold their number they will have 53, 10 short of a majority.
So it could be possible that Ray Merrick gets deposed as Speaker... but I think we will need to win those three key Statewide races, and the Dems need to win 10 seats off Conservative Republicans !
LONG VERSION
By the way I should mention that while there have been a few DKE diaries on the State Senate
here and
here by ptgkc and
here by KingofSpades, there have been none on the State House, which I need to correct, to help complete this
Ready Reckoner of State Legislature diaries... Apologies for the cross promotion !
Here is the overall map of the House of Representatives, although the Urban Districts are a bit hard to see. Don't forget to check Stephen Wolf's Legislative Districts Map for the details of how well President Obama did in 2012 as well as the incumbents margin of victory.
Historically it seems that the Moderates in recent years have been far more successful in the State Senate than the State House which they havent controlled for very long periods of time. And it has been even longer since the Dems controlled the House (1992 Cycle). Unfortunately there did not seem to be a list of Moderates vs Conservatives that I could just look at.
I though that the HB 2506 Bill was a good start to identify the Moderate Republicans (or at least sane establishment republicans) This bill prompted the teachers union recently to sue the state, because it rolled in provisions making it easier to sack teachers into the appropriations bill. While it might not be perfect whoever voted for the bill is likely pretty conservative given it only won 63 - 57 with 5 not voting (3 GOP and 2 Dems).
VOTING
The table below looks at the voting records of the GOP who voted no on HB 2506, and I have also put in there for those that voted Nay or Did Not Vote for the bill, their votes on HB-2453 and HB-2014. As a guide to who is conservative, it appears that there were 30 House Bills for the last cycle. Conservative House Speaker Ray Merrick voted Nay only three time, twice for gaming legislation, while House Majority Leader Gene Vickrey voted Nay on twice. Essentially Voting Nay 2 - 4 times means that the Republican is Koch Drone, with 4 to 6 times means that the Republican is Very Conservative and likely COC endorsed. HB-2453 is basically just an anti-gay bill, which passed the House, indicating that the house is a bunch of Kochs, fortunately the newly Conservative State Senate recognized that they should not take up the bill, so thankfully it has died (for the moment at least). Whereas HB-2014 was to repeal Gov. Sebelius's Renewable Energy Standard, a bill very popular in the Kock household but very unpopular with the people. It was defeated, a rare win for the good guys, and part of the reason why Gov. Brownback could well be defeated by Paul Davis.
Kansas State House - Looking for Moderate Republicans - Voting
HD |
Name |
General Voting Patterns |
HB 2506 Education |
HB 2453 Religious |
HB 2014 Renewable |
7 |
Richard Proehl |
23 Yays / 6 Nays |
Nay |
Yea |
Nay |
11 |
Jim Kelly |
22 Yeas / 8 Nays |
Nay |
Yea |
Nay |
13 |
Larry Hibbard |
16 Yeas / 14 Nays |
Nay |
Yea |
Nay |
19 |
Stephanie Clayton |
4 Yeas / 26 Nays |
Nay |
Nay |
Nay |
21 |
Barbara Boiler |
2 Yeas / 28 Nays |
Nay |
Nay |
Nay |
25 |
Melissa Rooker |
4 Yeas / 26 Nays |
Nay |
Nay |
Nay |
26 |
Larry Campbell |
20 Yeas / 7 Nays / 3 DNV |
Nay |
Yea |
Nay |
45 |
Tom Sloan |
9 Yeas / 20 Nays / 1 DNV |
Nay |
Nay |
Nay |
47 |
Ramon Gonzalez Jnr |
24 Yeas / 6 Nays |
Nay |
Yea |
Nay |
59 |
Blaine Finch |
11 Yeas / 13 Nays / 6 DNV |
Nay |
Nay |
Nay |
60 |
Don Hill |
8 Yeas / 21 Nays / 1 DNV |
DNV |
Nay |
Nay |
64 |
Vern Swanson |
16 Yeas / 14 Nays |
Nay |
Nay |
Nay |
67 |
Tom Phillips |
17 Yeas / 13 Nays |
Nay |
Nay |
Nay |
68 |
Tom Moxley |
13 Yeas / 17 Nays |
Nay |
Yea |
Nay |
71 |
Diana Dierks |
15 Yeas / 15 Nays |
Nay |
Nay |
Nay |
74 |
Don Schroder |
20 Yeas / 8 Nays / 2 DNV |
Nay |
Yea |
Nay |
98 |
Steven Anthimedes |
6 Yeas / 4 Nays / 1 DNV |
Nay |
Yea |
Nay |
102 |
Jan Pauls |
13 Yeas / 17 Nays |
Nay |
Yea |
Nay |
104 |
Steven Becker |
14 Yeas / 16 Nays |
Nay |
Nay |
Nay |
107 |
Susan Concannon |
20 Yeas / 8 Nays / 1 DNV |
Nay |
Nay |
Nay |
111 |
Sue Boldra |
25 Yeas / 5 Nays |
Nay |
Yea |
Nay |
112 |
John Edmonds |
18 Yeas / 11 Nays / 1 DNV |
Nay |
Yea |
Yea |
117 |
John Ewy |
24 Yeas / 6 Nays |
Nay |
Yea |
Nay |
118 |
Don Hineman |
15 Yeas / 15 Nays |
Nay |
Nay |
Nay |
122 |
Russ Jennings |
21 Yeas / 9 Nays |
Nay |
Nay |
Nay |
123 |
John Doll |
13 Yeas / 17 Nays |
Nay |
Nay |
Nay |
124 |
Stephen Alford |
22 Yeas / 8 Nays |
Nay |
Nay |
Nay |
125 |
Reid Petty |
26 Yeas / 4 Nays |
Nay |
Yea |
Nay |
So it seems a few of the Nay votes on HB-2506 are pretty Conservative, with 8-10 of these 28 Conservative.
So there you have it - the remarkable Barbara Bollier only voted Yea twice, with 28 Nays... A record better than many Democrats.
Rep. Barbara Bollier
She was the only Republican to vote against HB 2022 Prohibits Automatic Deductions by Public Labor Organizations for Political Fundraising. One Dem, Mike Peterson Did not vote for that bill.
Brandon Whipple (96), Kathy Woolfe Moore (36) and Julie Menghini (3) voted Yea more times than she did. She was one of two Republicans that voted against HB 2069 Prohibits Local Governments from Enforcing a Union Wage (along with John Doll), which had universal opposition from Dems.
Then you have the telegenic Stephanie Clayton and Melissa Rooker, who unlike Bollier voted Yea on HB 2022 and 2069, but only voted Yea 4 times overall, again better than some Dems.
Rep. Melissa Rooker
All three also voted Yea on HB 2456 Amends Property Tax Laws for Certain Equipment which passed the house 100 to 23, with the 23 Nays split between a quixotic mix of Dems and GOP. HB 2272 Amends Gaming Law which passed 84 to 36 was actually opposed by Speaker Ray Merrick who voted Nay, with most of the opposition from the GOP. So voting Yea on this one doesn't appear to be that ideological.
HB-2014
Here is some further details on HB-2014. The Map below shows the various GOP districts circled for those who voted Nay, and those not circled voted Yea. As you can see the vast majority of the western half of Kansas voted Nay. 113 is a notable exception, but the incumbent was running for State Senate seat vacated mid term, so he was trying to suck up to the Kochs no doubt (he did not win the primary). Not shown below very well is the greater Johnson County area where only 7 of the 18 Republicans voted Nay. So yes the Kochs over-reached big time with this one.
Rough Map showing who voted Nay on HB-2013 (those GOP districts circled voted Nay).
HB-2453
Well while I used HB-2506 as the 'Key" for the table above, there were a few Members who voted Yea, but who voted Nay on HB-2453. They were Troy Waymaster (HD-109) one of 7 Nay votes, Steven Johnson (HD-108) one of 4 Nay votes, John Barker (HD-70) which was one of 5 Nay Votes, and James Todd (HD-29), which was his only Nay Vote. So yeah the fact that James Todd an otherwise automatic far right conservative voted Nay must mean he is Libertarian or has a small piece of his soul not sold to the Kochs. I didnt end up putting these in the table, as they are all Conservatives, but I thought that some of you may be interested.
Kansas State House - Looking for Moderates - Endorsements
HD |
Name |
COC |
KFL |
NRA |
MC |
Sierra Club |
AFL-CIO |
AFL-CIO % |
KNEA |
7 |
Richard Proehl |
No/Yes |
No |
No |
No |
No |
No |
29% |
Yes |
11 |
Jim Kelly |
No/Yes |
No |
No |
No |
No |
No |
14% |
Yes |
13 |
Larry Hibbard |
No/No |
No |
No |
No |
No |
No |
29% |
Yes |
19 |
Stephanie Clayton |
No*/No |
No |
No |
Yes |
Yes |
No |
57% |
Yes |
21 |
Barbara Boiler |
No*/No |
No |
No |
Yes |
Yes |
No |
57% |
Yes |
25 |
Melissa Rooker |
No/No |
No |
No |
Yes |
? |
Yes |
57% |
Yes |
26 |
Larry Campbell |
No/No |
Yes |
No |
? |
No |
? |
71% |
Yes |
45 |
Tom Sloan |
No*/No |
No |
Yes |
Yes |
No |
Yes |
71% |
Yes |
47 |
Ramon Gonzalez Jnr |
Yes/Yes |
Yes |
No? |
No |
No |
No |
14% |
Yes |
59 |
Blaine Finch |
No*/No |
No |
Yes |
No |
No |
No? |
43% |
Yes |
60 |
Don Hill |
No/No |
No |
No |
No |
No |
No |
43% |
Yes |
64 |
Susie Swanson |
No*/No |
No |
No |
No |
No |
No |
N/A |
Yes |
67 |
Tom Phillips |
No/No |
No |
No |
No |
No |
No |
29% |
Yes |
68 |
Tom Moxley |
No/No |
No |
No |
No |
No |
Yes |
43% |
Yes |
71 |
Diana Dierks |
No*/No |
No |
No |
No |
No |
No |
14% |
Yes |
74 |
Don Schroder |
No/No |
Yes |
No |
No |
No |
No |
29% |
Yes |
98 |
Steven Anthimedes |
No/Yes |
Yes |
No |
No |
No |
No |
57% |
No! |
102 |
Jan Pauls |
No/No |
Yes |
No |
No |
No |
No! |
86% |
Yes |
104 |
Steven Becker |
No/No |
No |
No |
No |
No |
Yes |
57% |
Yes |
107 |
Susan Concannon |
No/Yes |
No |
No |
No |
No |
No |
43% |
No |
111 |
Sue Boldra |
No/Yes |
Yes |
No |
No |
No |
No |
14% |
Yes |
112 |
John Edmonds |
Yes/Yes |
Yes |
No |
No |
No |
No |
43% |
No! |
117 |
John Ewy |
No/Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
No |
No |
No |
29% |
No! |
118 |
Don Hineman |
No/No |
No |
No |
No |
No |
No |
29% |
Yes |
122 |
Russ Jennings |
No*/No |
No |
Yes |
No |
No |
No |
29% |
No! |
123 |
John Doll |
No/No |
No |
No |
No |
No |
No |
57% |
Yes |
124 |
Stephen Alford |
No/Yes |
No |
No |
No |
No |
No |
29% |
No! |
125 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Note: Reid Petty is not running again. Susie Swanson running instead of Vern.
So basically the Mainstream Coalition covers the three Overland Park based Republicans, and Tom Sloan from a 56% Obama District. Barbara Bollier and Stephanie Clayton are even endorsed by the Sierra Club. Tha AFL-CIO has endorsed Tom Sloan an obviously labour friendly Republican, Melissa Rooker, as well as Tom Moxley and Steven Becker.
Now that we have looked at the Endorsements, it is time to work out who are the Moderate Republicans !
MEET THE MODERATES
Liberal Republicans - 3 Bollier, Clayton and Rooker
So in the end Barbara Bollier is a Liberal Republican who votes better than many Democrats. Melissa Rooker and Stephanie Clayton are also fairly Liberal Republicans who are just as good as some of the Moderate and Conservative Democrats, albeit are best on Social issues (eg. Paul Davis voted Yea 6 times).
These three all occupy Overland Park based districts in Johnson County, with Reps Bollier and Rooker occupying 2 of the 4 GOP held districts that voted for Pres. Obama in 2012. The figure below is an extract from Stephen Wolf's Kansas Map:
Johnson County Liberal Republican Districts
Extract from Stephen Wolf's Mapping
Reps. Rooker, Bollier and Clayton
Photo: http://pvpost.com/...
Reps. Rooker and Clayton with Senator Kay Wolf, a surviving Senate Moderate. Note: Sen. Wolf's State Senate District overlaps the same area as the three Liberal Republican House Reps, and the only seat won by Pres. Obama that is held by a Republican.
Photo: http://pvpost.com/...
Really Moderate Republican - 2 Sloan and Hill
Tom Sloan (9 Yeas / 20 Nays / 1 DNV) basically votes the same as Rooker and Clayton, and in addition voted for 5 other Bills in relation to guns, A NRA friendly Moderate I guess you could say.
Rep. Tom Sloan
He occupies an Obama District.
HD-45 (Sloan's House District)
Extract from Stephen Wolf's Mapping
Hill had 8 Yeas, 21 Nays and 1 DNV on the HB 2014, and has no Conservative endorsements. Unlike Sloan though, he seem pretty low profile. Of course unlike Sloan, he does not have a seat that voted for Pres. Obama, although 46% Obama is not too bad.
Rep. Don Hill
Why are these guys really Moderate ? Well they voted Yea less times than to most conservative Democrats, Brandon Whipple who voted Yea 12 times and Julie Menghini (10 times). Although Whipple is in a 48% Obama seat and Menghini in a 47.5% Obama seat, and Sloan is from Laurence County, where those Liberals live.
Moderate Republicans - 9
These guys either vote more Nay than Yea, or only vote Yea slightly more than Nay.
Larry Hibbard (16 Yeas, 14 Nays, No Conservative Endorsements), Blaine Finch (11 Yeas, 13 Nays 6 DNV, Endorsed by NRA), Vern Swanson (16 Yeas / 14 Nays), Tom Phillips (17 Yeas / 13 Nays), Tom Moxley (13 Yeas / 17 Nays), Diana Dierks (15 Yeas / 15 Nays), Stephen Becker (14 Yeas / 16 Nays), Don Hineman (15 Yeas / 15 Nays), and John Doll (13 Yeas / 17 Nays). The COC does not endorse any of these republicans running either in the primary election or the general election.
Of course Tom Moxley (HD-68) and Stephen Becker (HD-104) are AFL-CIO endorsed, with Becker having a 31% Obama district and Moxley a 35.2% Obama seat, I think that is a pretty good deal...
Rep. John Doll
Check out HERE for a great speech from John Doll. Honestly he seems like someone who join a coalition with Democrats ahead of Conservative Republicans if they could get the numbers. He is in a 32.9% Obama district.
Conserva Dem turned Republican - Pauls
The member for the 102nd (Hutchinson), Janice Pauls is a former Conserva Dem and was the last elected Democrat House Rep in Western Kansas until switching to the GOP recently. So perhaps not surprising that she is not endorsed by the COC, as she still votes Nay more than Yea. She also represents the only seat above 45% Obama in Western Kansas (and basically the only seat above 35% Obama). She has Dem opposition for the election. She seems like a character... and a bigot.
Establishment Republicans
Larry Campbell (20 Yeas / 7 Nays / 3 DNV) voted Nay on some big votes, and seems to essentially be a somewhat Union friendly Republican (71% Rating by AFL-CIO), but otherwise votes Yea a lot more than Nay. Endorsed by KFL.
Rep. Russ Jennings
Russ Jennings (21 Yeas / 9 Nays) voted Nay on some big votes, and was the leader of the successful insurrection against the Koch drive to repeal the Renewable Energy Standard. Endorsed by NRA. He worked on the transition for Dem Governor Mark Parkinson.
Don Schroder (20 Yeas / 8 Nays / 2 DNV) also voted Nay on some big votes and has not been endorsed by the COC for either the Primary or the General.
Conservative Republicans Who are Not Koch Drones
And who else failed to get endorsed by the COC in the General Election ? Kent Thompson was not endorsed in the Primary or the General (7 Yeas, 4 Nays). Scott Schwab was also not endorsed for the Primary or the General (A whopping 27 Yeas, 2 Nays and 1 DNV). Yes thats right even when you vote as a Koch Drone Republican, it is still not enough... Schwab claims it was not even the Nay Vote on HB 2014 (Renewable Energy) that was the problem... It was that he asked the Koch Lobbyists to testify on the public record...
You then have the pretty Conservative Republicans, who didnt get COC endorsement in the Primary, but did in the General. Presumably this is meant to be a signal that while the COC considers them okay, and wont spend money on primary challengers, they are happy for a more conservative candidate to come along. These Republicans not endorsed in the Primary Election were: Richard Proehl-7th (23 Yeas / 6 Nays / 1 DNV), Jim Kelly-11th (22 Yeas / 8 Nays), Steven Anthimedes-98th (6 Yeas / 4 Nay / 1 DNV), Susan Concannon-107th (20 Yeas / 8 Nays / 1 DNV), Troy Waymaster-109th, Sue Boldra-111th (25 Yeas / 5 Nays), Ronald Ryckman Snr-115th, John Ewy-117th (24 Yeas / 6 Nays), Bud Estes-119th (10 Yeas / 1 Nay), Stephen Alford-124th (22 Yeas / 8 Nays)
Sue Boldra voted Yea all year, until the very end, when obviously in response to public opinion voted Nay on various Education Bills and HB 2014. She was penalised by not being endorsed in the Primary, although she was in the General, now that she is running againts a Dem. Likewise for Bud Estes, whose only crime was to vote Nay on HB 2014 and for Ronald Ryckman Snr who voted Nay four times (twice on bills Ray Merrick also voted Nay on). Looking at past endorsements Susan Concannon was endorsed by COC and KFL for the last cycle, and probably votes Yea more than Nay. Steven Anthimedes wasn't endorsed by the KNEA despite not voting for HB-2506. Richard Proehl was endorsed by COC and NRA last cycle. Jim Kelly had all three conservative endorsements last time, and voted Yea a lot more than Nay through the cycle. Sue Boldra votes Yea a lot more than Nay. Stephen Alford in the past has had all three conservative endorsements.
John Edmonds must be liked... with 18 Yea / 11 Nays / 1 DNV, he was still endorsed by the COC for the Primary and the General Election ! That is the best we can hope for in a 23.5% Obama district I guess ! Ramon Gonzalez Jnr also got Primary and General Election endorsement with 24 Yeas / 6 Nays.
For those that want a different test to find moderates, there was only 20 Republican Nay votes on HB2453, a typical GOP sexual orientation discrimination bill - those that voted Nay can be found here - there. Please note that 3 Dems supported the Bill.
PRIMARY & GENERAL ELECTION ENDORSEMENT LINKS
AFL-CIO Primary Election Endorsements are
here.
Kansas Sierra Club General Election Endorsements are
here.
Kansas Sierra Club General Election Endorsements are
here.
Main PAC Primary Election Endorsements are
here.
KNEA PAC Primary Election Endorsement are
here.
Chamber of Commerce Primary Election Endorsements are here.
Chamber of Commerce General Election Endorsements are here.
THE ENEMY
For an interesting profile on House Speaker Ray Merrick, go
here.
ONWARDS
So over the orange squiggly line I go through the primary election results and work out how well the broader Moderate coalition have gone.
PRIMARY ELECTION RESULTS
In this section we look at where Moderates tried or should have tried to go on offence.
I divide this by sections:
- Open Seats (Some Yea, some Nay on HB-2506)
- Incumbents Challenged by Moderates
- Incumbents Challenged by even more Conservative Challengers.
Open Seats - Where Incumbent Voted Yea
Essentially there was not a mass retirement among Conservatives, with most Representatives running for re-election. However incumbents did not run for re-election in the following 8 seats: 23 (Kelly Meigs), 30 (Lance Kinzer), 52 (Shanti Ghandi), 61 (Richard Carlson), 77 (David Crum), 81 (Jim Howell), 113 (Marshall Christmann), 120 (Ward Cassidy). Of those there was no GOP Primary in the following 5 seats : 23 (Linda Gallagher), 52 (Dick Jones), 61 (Becky Hutchins), 81 (Blake Carpenter), 113 (Jeremy "Basil" Dannebohm). Obviously in general open seats represent a great opportunity, but in only one seat did it flip to the Moderates, in District 23... an Obama 2012 District.
23. In this district, Kelly Meigs a COC backed freshman (well freshwoman) did not run for re-election... perhaps due to being the only conservative Republican in one of the 4 Obama seats held by the GOP.
HD-23 - one of the few House Seats won by Obama and held by a Republican.
This is an Extract from Stephen Wolf's Mapping.
Linda Gallagher is the Republican running in this district. VoteSmart shows that she is endorsed by the Kansas National Education Association who endorsed many of the Nay votes on the Education Bill. It certainly seems from her website that she is a Moderate Republican. Certainly the absence of COC endorsement and lack of rabid teabag talking points seems telling. +1 to the Moderates here (or +1 to the Dems, but either way we will get an upgrade of some sort).
30. Here, Kinzer who seems to have been a fairly solid enough conservative has retired, after losing the contest for House Speaker in 2012 against Ray Merrick. Randy Powell (1150 votes) defeated Ron Worley (912 votes). This was the one victory for the Conservatives, with Powell being endorsed by the COC, Kansans for Life and the NRA. Vote Smart identifies his biggest mission is to save Kansas families from high taxes. Powell though was endorsed by the retiring incumbent who redistricting placed in with Worley for the 2012 elections. Worley is a scumbag who dared oppose Brownback's tax cuts! So the Conservatives hold the line there.
52. In this district Shanti Ghandi, a retired heart surgeon and quixotic freshman who didnt want the media to mention that he is related to Mahatma Ghandi is retiring after a single term. He has endorsed 72 year old Dick Jones, who lost the primary to him originally. It sounds like Ghandi wasnt a great fan of the way things were done in the house (He was also one of 20 GOP Nay votes on HB 2453 Religous Liberty Bill). It also sounds like Jones is a bit of a tool, and that the Conservatives have kept this seat.
61. Richard Carlson retired here, to be replaced unopposed in the GOP primary by Becky Hutchins. Carlson seems to have been a reliable conservative yea vote. Hutchins looks like she has served briefly before and while there is not a lot of info on her, she looks far right conservative.
77 Kristey Williams (1,820 votes) defeated Kenneth Bratton (1,169 votes) in the GOP Primary to succeed Dave Crum, who appears to have been a reliable conservative yea vote. Williams is a former Mayor of Augusta, and Bratton a former Councillor. Neither were endorsed by Kansas Families for Education. The CAC did not endorse either candidate, but both seem to be pretty conservative. Conservatives have kept this seat, although Bratton seems to have been if anything slightly more conservative.
81 Blake Carpenter was unopposed in the GOP primary to succeed Jim Howell who appears to have been a reliable conservative yea vote and had all three conservative endorsements. He does have a Dem opponent for the general. Carpenter has picked up COC endorsement already. Again, Conservatives have kept this seat.
113 Jeremy "Basil" Dannebohm was unopposed in the GOP primary to succeed Marshall Christmann who ran unsuccessfully for a State Senate seat. He came in third in a competitive GOP primary for the Special Election for the 35th State Senate district. Dannebohn has no Dem opponent and will be the new member for the 113th House Seat. He was Chief of Staff to Christmann so presumably will be similarly conservative. Conservatives have kept this seat.
In the 120th District, Ward Cassidy did not run for re-election. Rick Billinger 2,197 votes defeated Adam Smith 1,447 votes. Unfortunately Smith was the one who was endorsed by Kansas Families for Education. He was clearly the Moderate in this race. So the conservatives have kept this seat.
Open Seats - Where Incumbent Voted Nay
And what about the seats vacated by the Nay Votes ? There were only two seats vacated by Nay Voters, the 64th District and the 125th District, with only one moderate retiring in Vern Swanson.
64 - 7 year incumbent Vern Swanson retired, with the GOP primary won by his wife Susie 1097 votes to 955 votes over creationist Kathy Martin. Given Susie Swanson was endorsed by the Kansas National Education Association, the Moderates win again here.
125 - Rookie incumbent Reid Petty retired, as he got a higher paying job elsewhere, with his nay vote on HB-2014, one of his very few Nay votes.
HD-125 is located in the South-Western corner of the State, where quite a few of the Moderates hail from, including John Doll and Russ Jennings.
Extract from Stephen Wolf's Mapping
Shannon Francis a moderate defeated Chamber of Commerce backed conservative Jim Rice in this open seat. Francis was also endorsed by the Kansas National Education Association. The moderates make a gain here, as while the incumbent Reid Petty voted Nay on the Education Bill, he was otherwise reasonably conservative. The COC refused to endorse Francis whatsoever which is a great sign !
Conservative Yea Vote Incumbents Challenged by Moderates
For some reason, there were quite a few challengers to outer suburban Wichita Republicans...
8. Incumbent Craig McPherson (1,272 votes) defeated Stacey Schlimmer (1,010 votes). While both candidates are Conservative, and Kansas Families for Education did not endorse Schlimmer, it is clear that the challenger would have been far more Moderate, or at least a more thoughtful conservative rather than a Koch stooge. McPherson has all three conservative endorsements. Conservatives retain this Johnson County seat here.
16. Amanda Grosserode (1,552 votes) survived a challenge by Jameia Haines (977 Votes) and Ray Marshall (279 votes). No other incumbent scored two challengers. Amanda has the three conservative endorsement locked up. Haines was the Moderate challenger endorsed by Kansas Families for Education. Conservatives retain this Johnson County seat, directly adjacent to the 8th District here.
50. Incumbent conservative Josh Powell (1,636 votes) fell to Moderate challenger Fred C. Patton (1,698 votes). Powell had all three conservative endorsements. Moderates pick up this exurban Topeka seat.
HD-50 - An outer Topeka District.
Extract from Stephen Wolf Mapping.
Strangely, The Physician Hospitals of Kansas PAC were pretty effective in that Powell and Rothlisberg were the two incumbents they targeted. Otherwise they seemed happy to back conservative incumbents.
65. Incumbent conservative Allan Rothlisberg (317 Votes) fell to Moderate challenger Lonnie G. Clark (464 votes) in what has to be an unusually low turnout for a GOP primary. Most other seats had far more votes. Rothlisberg had all three conservative endorsements, but notably did not vote at all for the Renewable Energy Standard Repeal, which may have made the COC support lackluster. Clark is still apparently pretty conservative.
70. John Barker 2286 votes, easily defeated Brian Huwiler 649 votes.
72. Marc Rhoades 2,082 Votes defeated Barbara Bunting 1,520 votes. Bunting was endorsed by Kansas Families for Education and by the Kansas National Education Association, due to Rhoades originally chairing the Appropriations committee that pushed HB 2506. Ms Bunting got endorsed by former Governor Bill Graves.
80. Unfortunately conservative incumbent Kasha Kelley 1,206 votes defeated Moderate challenger Andrew Lawson 889 votes. Story here. Lawson was endorsed by Kansas Families for Education. Conservatives retain the seat here.
99. Unfortunately conservative Dennis Hedke 1,686 votes just survived a challenge by Randy Banwart 1,538 votes. Banwart was endorsed by Kansas Families for Education. Conservatives retain this seat. Details on the race here, but it sounds like the Kansas Values Insitute heavily targeted Hedke.
Conservative Nay Vote Incumbent Challenged by Moderates
117. John Ewy 2,849 votes (87.5%) smashed Moderate challenger M.T. Liggett with 405 votes (12.4%). Despite Ewy being a Nay vote on HB 2506, Liggett was endorsed by Kansas Families for Education. In the end the COC endorsed Ewy for the General Election, perhaps realising that they could do worse in the district. Ewy is endorsed by the NRA and Kansans for Life. Of course Ewy voted Yea 24 times, so he is conservative enough.
Conservatives Incumbents Challenged by Conservative Challengers
9. The lone representative who voted yea but was still considered a Moderate was Kent Thompson, the incumbent appointed rep of the 9th District. Thompson who is endorsed by the NRA and has a 0% rating from the AFL-CIO (but no COC endorsement the sign of a Moderate) managed to offend Secretary of State Kris Kobach by not supporting the Turn Gay Away legislation... tmservo has a decent summary here. Which shows you can be pretty conservative but if you are not a Koch drone who votes are ordered on every bill you are a 'Moderate'. Thompson won 1,524 votes to Chad Van Houden 1,019 votes.
49. Scott Schwab (945 votes) easily defeated John Wilson (361 votes). Schwab did not get an endorsement from the COC.
76. Peggy Mast (1,663 votes) defeated challenger Jeffrey Freeman. Mast was endorsed by the COC, but her challenger was not endorsed by any left wing groups.
91 Gene Suellentrop, 1,493 Votes defeated challenger Eric Henderson 816 votes. Suellentrop had all three endorsements - COC, Kansans For Life and NRA. Kansas Families for Education issued no endorsement here. Based on the story here, it seems there was no policy differences between the candidates. Nothing to see here.
93. The late incumbent George F. (Joe) Edwards II 935 votes(45.4%) fell to John Whitmer 1,124 votes (54.5%), one of the rare successful defeats of an incumbent in the primary. Kansas Families for Education issued no endorsement here. This seat is an exurban Wichita seat. John Whitmer picked up the COC endorsement, but for the primary Edwards had been endorsed by the COC, Kansans for Life and the NRA. After losing the primary Edwards died of a heart attack. It seems that the freshman Edwards hadn't locked down the district yet, and I suspect got into some mischief based on some hints in the story here nothing to see here really, Conservatives retain the seat.
97. Incumbent Leslie Osterman 938 votes just survived against Michael Walker. Kansas Families for Education issued no endorsement here. It seems that Osterman was a conservative democrat. Osterman resides in an outer Suburban Wichita seat that is 37% Obama. It seems he failed to win as a Dem and so changed parties. In the end the COC endorsed him, so they are happy enough with him, and with NRA and Kansas for Life endorsements Osterman has the holy trinity of conservative endorsements. Possibly he is the best we could hope for here, given he has a 43% rating by the AFL-CIO he is one of the more labor friendly Republicans.
4. Moderate Nay Vote Incumbents Challenged by Conservatives
Basically, unlike last cycle's purge of moderates in the State Senate, this time the Moderate incumbents survived solidly, and made modest gains with a few challengers. This is described here and here. It seems that there were 6 reps that were strongly challenged by the COC and the Koch PAC Americans for Prosperity.
19. Stephanie Clayton beat a conservative challenger Jennifer Flood 2344 to 1121. Clayton has no endorsements from the big three conservative groups (COC, NRA of Kansas for Life), but she is endorsed by the Sierra Club. Clayton has a 46% Obama 2012 District, which I presume would normally be won by Democrats though.
21. Barbara Bollier had a primary challenge from Neil Melton who she beat 1819 to 1232, with Dem Amy Bell only getting 925 votes (Bell ran last time). Boiler has no endorsements from the big three conservative groups (COC, NRA of Kansas for Life), but she is endorsed by the Sierra Club. Bollier has one of the four GOP held Obama districts.
45. Tim Sloan got 1431 with Dem Jeremy Ryan Pierce getting 449. Sloan has a rating of 71% from the AFL-CIO, one of two Republicans (the other is Larry Campbell) to have this rating, which is the same as the lowest rating for a Dem (Emily Perry). No other Republican has a rating higher than 57%. At 56.2%, Sloan holds down the highest % of the four Obama seats held by the GOP.
122 - Russ Jennings defeated Koch backed challenger, and was singled out due to his leadership on the energy bill. Not endorsed by COC or Kansas for Life, but does have NRA support. Jennings holds a far western rural seat with a 22.3% Obama showing in 2012. So yeah this guy is awesome.
71. Dianna Dierks 1832 survived against conservative challenger Tom Bell 1,565, and now has no general election opponent. She was endorsed by the Kansas National Education Association. She seems to have 0/3 of the Conservative endorsements, although the NRA gives her a 74%. She was a former Democratic party candidate for Lt Gov.
59. Blaine Finch 1,972 votes easily dispatched conservative challenger Bob Fluke 1,103 votes. Finch seems to be a reliable moderate. He is not endorsed by COC or Kansas for Life but does have a NRA endorsement. His AFL-CIO rating is 43% making him one of the higher rated republicans.
CONCLUSION - RECAP
So in conclusion the Kansas State House of Representatives is 125 strong. This means you need 63 for a Majority. There are 32 Dems in the current State House, and you would need 31 GOP Moderates to form a Moderate Coalition (This may not be realistic, but just trying to see what vague possibility might exist). There are currently at a fairly broad definition of Moderate, around 18 Moderates, including a recent Dem who switched parties. Although there are a several Conservative Republicans who are being targeted for not being Koch Drones who could theoretically vote for a Moderate Speaker, they would not be useful in winding back too much legislation I would have thought.
I cant see any Moderate Republicans that lost their primary. The one Moderate who retired, Vern Swanson, has his wife running in his place, who won the GOP primary.
The Moderates have picked up an Open Obama seat, with Linda Gallagher winning the 23rd (or the Dems will win it) and the open 125th seat in the South Western corner of the State. The Moderates also defeated the Conservative Incumbent Josh Powell to claim the 50th District.
Therefore there should be 21 Moderate Republicans after the elections (assuming the Moderates win their races). So combined if the Dems hold their number they will have 53, 10 short of a majority.
So it could be possible that Ray Merrick gets deposed as Speaker... but I think we will need to win those three key Statewide races, and the Dems need to win 10 seats off Conservative Republicans !
WOULD LOVE FEEDBACK - BUT PLEASE BE GENTLE WITH THE SPELLING ERRORS & BE AWARE THAT THIS IS A DAILY KOS ELECTIONS DIARY... SO FORGIVE ME IF I DONT BELIEVE THAT LIBERAL DEMS WILL WIN EVERY SEAT IN THE HOUSE...