Senate:
• AR-Sen: PPP (D): Tom Cotton (R) 49, Mark Pryor (D-inc) 41 (Sept.: 43-38 Cotton)
• GA-Sen: Marist: David Perdue (R) 48, Michelle Nunn (D) 44, Amanda Swafford (L) 3 (May: 45-41 Perdue)
• IA-Sen: Selzer & Co.: Joni Ernst (R) 51, Bruce Braley (D) 44 (Oct. 12: 47-46 Ernst)
• KY-Sen: Marist: Mitch McConnell (R-inc) 50, Alison Grimes (D) 41 (Sept.: 47-39 McConnell)
• KY-Sen: PPP (D): McConnell (R-inc) 50, Grimes (D) 42 (Aug.: 44-40 McConnell)
• LA-Sen: Marist: Bill Cassidy (R) 50, Mary Landrieu (D-inc) 45
• LA-Sen: PPP (D): Cassidy (R) 48, Landrieu (D-inc) 47 (Oct.: 48-45 Cassidy)
Note that both Louisiana polls are for the December runoff between Landrieu and Cassidy. Both pollsters tested the Tuesday jungle primary between those two candidates, tea partying Republican Rob Maness, and a few minor candidates and found the same result every other pollster has been
finding for months: No candidate is anywhere close to taking the 50 percent plus one vote they would need to win outright, and a Landrieu-Cassidy runoff is all but assured.
Selzer's Iowa poll giving Ernst a 7-point lead made a huge splash when it was released on Saturday. As we've noted in the past, Selzer has a very good record in Iowa, though like any pollster they have had some missteps along the way.
The good news for Democrats is that this poll is the only one to give Ernst a sizable lead in a long time. The bad news is that most independent polls give Ernst a consistent lead. Even a recent Democratic poll from Garin-Hart-Yang could only give Braley a tie. Braley's reaction to this new Selzer survey also did not inspire much confidence. His camp released a memo critiquing the poll, but didn't release any numbers of their own. Instead, they argued that the race was close but Braley's early vote lead and Democrats superior ground game would carry them to victory. However as Taniel has noted, Democrats early vote lead is not as large as it usually is. Even if Selzer is completely wrong, Ernst does look better positioned.
As for Pryor and Grimes: Either they're goners or we're about to see one of the biggest polling fails ever. Sadly, I'm not betting on option two.
Gubernatorial:
• AK-Gov: Rasmussen: Bill Walker (I) 50, Sean Parnell (R-inc) 43 (Sept.: 47-42 Walker)
• AR-Gov: PPP (D): Asa Hutchinson (R) 51, Mike Ross (D) 41 (Sept.: 44-38 Hutchinson)
• CT-Gov: PPP (D): Dan Malloy (D-inc) 44, Tom Foley (R) 41, Joe Visconti (I) 6 (Oct. 6: 43-35 Malloy)
• GA-Gov: Marist: Nathan Deal (R-inc) 48, Jason Carter (D) 43, Andrew Hunt (L) 3 (May: 50-40 Deal)
• ID-Gov: PPP (D): Butch Otter (R-inc) 49, A.J. Balukoff (D) 37, Others 10 (Oct. 14: 39-35 Otter)
• IL-Gov: We Ask America (R): Pat Quinn (D-inc) 50, Bruce Rauner (R) 45 (Oct. 12: 44-41 Quinn) (Conducted for the Illinois Observer
• MA-Gov: PPP (D): Charlie Baker (R) 46, Martha Coakley (D) 42 (Sept. 2013: 51-38 Coakley)
• NH-Gov: Rasmussen: Maggie Hassan (D-inc) 51, Walt Havenstein (R) 42 (Sept.: 51-40 Hassan)
• OK-Gov: SoonerPoll.Com: Mary Fallin (R-inc) 48, Joe Dorman (D) 40 (Oct. 6: 50-36 Fallin)
On Sunday, Visconti dropped out of the race and endorsed Foley, though his name will
remain on the ballot. The PPP found that Malloy would maintain his 3-point edge if Visconti were not in the race. A recent Quinnipiac poll found the race going from a tie to a
1-point Foley lead if Visconti dropped out. With Visconti backing Foley his small group of supporters could break to the GOP at a greater rate, which could make all the difference in this tight contest.
Idaho was fun while it lasted, but it looks Idaho's red hue will carry Otter to another term. The last PPP poll gave the governor only a 4-point edge, but found Otter with more room to grow than Balukoff. In the last few weeks, the undecided voters appear to have overwhelmingly broken for Otter. The one good sign for Democrats is that the RGA was still airing ads here as late as last week, which may indicate that they don't think Otter has this race locked up. Even so, it would be a massive shock if Otter goes down.
There isn't much good polling news for Democrats here, but one diamond in the rough comes from Illinois, where WAA finds Quinn up by 5. WAA has traditionally favored Republicans, sometimes to the point of absurdity, so it is a good sign that even they give Quinn a tangible edge. Over the summer WAA was incredibly bullish for Rauner, giving his a double-digit lead as late as August. Over the past few months Quinn has closed the gap, with recent polls giving him at worst a 2-point deficit. In fact, this is Quinn's best poll since an APC Research survey showed him up 11 in mid-September (that poll was almost certainly an outlier, especially since their most recent one gave Rauner a 2-point edge). We'll see how things go Tuesday but it looks like Quinn can pull this off after being left for dead over the summer.
House:
• GA-12: Landmark Communications (R): Rick Allen (R) 48, John Barrow (D-inc) 44
• NY-01: Siena: Lee Zeldin (R) 50, Tim Bishop (D-inc) 45 (Sept.: 51-41 Bishop)
• NY-11: Siena: Michael Grimm (R-inc) 53, Domenic Recchia (D) 34 (Sept.: 44-40 Grimm)
If Siena is anywhere close to being right, Grimm is on track to win easily despite being under indictment and even threatening to
throw a reporter over a balcony. Early last week House Majority PAC announced a
$1.7 million ad buy against Grimm. It's very unlikely they'd spend this much if they though Grimm had anything resembling a 19-point lead, though we'll find out soon enough.
Even if Siena is wrong though, a Grimm victory is far from implausible. As we've noted before, plenty of Staten Islanders believe Grimm when he says that the government is out to get him. A recent Staten Island Advance editorial endorsing Grimm spoke to these kind of voters:
Frankly, the long lag time between the alleged commission of these crimes and the indictment for them makes the indictment suspect in our eyes, especially given the highly charged political atmosphere and the degree to which his seat is coveted by the Democrats.
Recchia is also a very flawed candidate. He started the race with a geographical disadvantage, hailing from Brooklyn rather than Staten Island. Recchia has also made a
few notable gaffes. In a different district Grimm's indictment may have rendered these flaws meaningless but they certainly aren't helping the Democrats here.