These are my final ratings and predictions for the 2014 general election. As is popular among election pundits, I've divided all the races into categories based upon the likelihood of either party winning (not by winning margin):
Safe - That party has over a 95 percent percent chance of winning. The other party has no realistic options for victory under present circumstances.
Likely - That party has over an 80 percent chance of winning and is the heavy favorite. However an upset is possible and the other party has a potential but unlikely path to victory.
Lean - That party has over a 65 percent chance of winning and is a narrow, but clear favorite. This race is be competitive and it is very plausible that the other party could win.
Tossup - Both parties have less than a 65 percent chance of winning and the heavily contested race could easily go either way.
Furthermore I've chosen a winner for every race and have mapped out both the race ratings and predicted winner. Let's start with the US Senate:
I am predicting that Republicans gain seven Senate seats in Alaska, Arkansas, Iowa, Louisiana, Montana, South Dakota, and West Virginia, thus giving Republicans 52 seats and control of the chamber. However unlike the last few cycles there are more states that will be very close and could go either way, meaning a range of R+4 to R+8 is quite plausible. Georgia and Louisiana should both go to runoffs and with the slow counting in Alaska and Colorado we almost certainly won't know for sure who won on Wednesday.
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In the House I have Democrats gaining CA-31, FL-02, and NE-02, while Republicans flip FL-26, IL-12, NC-07, NY-21, UT-04, and WV-03 which would be a net gain of R+3. However I am expecting to miss a few races and that the net result will be R+6 if I had to pick a number, but when I went individually district by district I came up with R+3. Additionally, while some polls have had the generic ballot tied or D+ while others have had 2010 wave levels, I believe Republicans will only narrowly win the popular vote.
While Republicans are set for gains in congressional elections, the opposite looks likely at the gubernatorial level in a mirror of the 1986 elections. I have Republicans flipping Arkansas and Massachusetts, but losing Alaska, Florida, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, giving Democrats (plus Bill Walker) a net gain of four and control of 25 states to Republicans' 25, but now a majority of the country's population.