There's nothing all that surprising about last night. Second-term presidents almost always lose ground in off-year elections. The polls have been saying for months that something like this was possible. We worked our asses off to make sure things weren't even worse than they were, and for that we should be proud. And yeah, there's lots of data to dig into and lessons to be learned over the coming weeks and months.
But here's the big takeaway for me:
The next two years are a critical time for progressives, because of how blue the map will be in 2016.
Election 2016 is going to be viewed as a rejection of something and an embrace of something else.
The GOP will take care of the "rejection" part – with gridlock, useless repeals, shutdowns, Benghazi, primaries, and impeachment, we know they will – but it's up to us to spend the next two years making sure that the "embrace" part is clear and unambiguous.
Because the public's perception of those results will then be absorbed into the American mainstream, and reckoned with as a new President moves into his/her first term. Like it or not, most Americans are low-information voters. Almost no one is aware of the things everyone reading this blog is aware – how favorable the 2016 map is, how close to 270 the Democratic candidate starts off with in 2016, how gerrymandering affects the House, etc.
All they know is headlines.
And we know what the headlines on November 2, 2016 are going to be.
And because we know that, we can now begin to control why they are what they are.
So the GOP now controls Congress. The average citizen may think that they're about to start actually doing things! Maybe they'll fix things that are broken, or work with the President where they can find common ground.
But you and I know that's not going to happen.
Most elected Republicans are so extreme in their own views that they couldn't compromise with President Obama on pizza toppings, let alone immigration reform – and even if they personally favor compromise, they're forced to talk up the crazy to please their base and funders. During a Presidential election, those tendencies will be more on display than ever, as candidates jockey for support among primary voters and supporters work to curry favor and tow the party line.
Fine. We know the 2016 election results are going to be seen as a rejection of something. Viewers are going to see a sea of blue, graphs showing the Democrats retaking the Senate in commanding fashion. And winning back the White House! And gaining ground in the House! These things are all virtual certainties (note: GOTV GOTV GOTV! But they are. Because math.).
But then we get the average voter's attention for maybe another 8 seconds, or two sentences. Why, precisely, has America returned government to Democrats?
Let's make sure we've spent the last two years making that answer incredibly obvious to everyone.
Let's make sure Republicans are the thing being rejected. Not "bipartisan" legislation. Not pox-on-both-their-houses inaction. Republicans. We state that we would move on immigration reform, tax policy, minimum wage, energy reform, infrastructure, etc. When voters see those 2016 results, they will see that the public wanted action, not stalling.
Let's make sure we're talking incessantly but clearly about the progressive things we actually want to do. No watered-down Republican-lite. Be bold! It won't cause us to lose races! (It probably never does -- but certainly not in 2016.)Stay on message. Keep your eye on the ball. When voters see those 2016 results, they will have to admit that the public wanted whatever it was that Democrats were selling. So let's sell the good stuff -- and then do it.
Let's make sure we're not agreeing to ridiculous compromises between now and then that muddy the waters. I'm not saying filibuster everything, obstruct-obstruct-obstruct. Let's not stoop to the opposition's level, and let's deal with crises we have to address. But let's remain true to our ideals. That way when voters see those 2016 results, they will see them as affirming the public's preference for the clearly stated progressive approach to unresolved issues facing the nation.
Let's make sure we continue pushing our candidates at all levels to make the counter-argument. Let's move the Overton window. Let's craft workable policies and talk about why they're superior to the GOP approach – as well as superior to doing nothing at all (in the unlikely event that doing nothing at all in fact isn't the entire GOP approach). That way when voters see those 2016 results, they'll appreciate the direction the country is about to go in.
In short: let's put the pieces of the mandate together now. Start writing the headlines you want to see two years from today. Lay out the agenda. Be specific. Let's give Hillary (or Elizabeth or Joe or whomever else the new President will be – heck Clay Aiken could beat the GOP's candidates) all the necessary pieces of puzzle to take office and begin working on meaningful, impactful things.
You know that the Democratic party is going to stage a huge "comeback" in 2016. You know it's baked in. The average voter doesn't, and will instead assume that when his TV screen displays a sea of blue two years from now, it's actually because whatever it is that Democrats have been talking about recently is actually preferred by the nation – and now officially where we're headed.
That big Democratic return to power will be a rejection of something, and embrace of something.
Let's start that conversation today.