Last night serves to further prove what I have been saying for years.
The Democratic Party has abandoned its base, in it's ongoing quest for Independents, it has ignored the base...and last night...the base ignored the Democrats and stayed home.
Last night was an unmitigated disaster that could have been lessened, but not totally prevented. See below the squiggle for my own analysis, for whatever it is worth - bearing in mind that I was a Political Science / Paralegal double-major in college.
Last night, we were GOING to lose Senate seats. There was no way to avoid this. Class II Senate seats were up last night, and Class II totally favors the Republicans, as many of those races are in traditionally red states.
Class III races, which will be up in 2016...tend to massively favor Team Blue. Most of those races are in traditionally blue and purple states. Class I seats, due up again in 2018...are more evenly split, but still track towards D slightly.
In 2016, there are 24 R seats up for grabs, and only 10 D seats. So Team Blue should make gains in 2016....especially with the help of it being a Presidential year. We do have a turnout problem with midterms.
I am hoping last night served as a wake-up call to Team Blue that midterms DO matter. They matter very much!!
We started the night with a Senate of 53 D + 2 I that caucus D. And 45 R.
Our best-case scenario right now will nearly completely reverse that...leaving R with 54 seats. And if Angus King bolts...it could be 55. I am pretty sure Mary Landrieu is done in LA, and it does not look good for Begich in Alaska, even though Parnell would seem to have lost.
As a side note, I do not think Angus King will bolt. His endorsement of Michaud In the Maine Governor's Race - after abandoning Cutler...would seem to indicate he will stay in the D caucus.
Some ticket-splitting was going on in Alaska, it would seem....but the most amazing ticket-splitting of the night has GOT to be in Pennsylvania. As a former Pennsylvanian (now North Carolinian) I know what laid Corbett low: In two words...PENN STATE.
Corbett's loss was NOT a political thing. It was Penn State and nothing else that laid Corbett low. By my best estimate, fully ONE THIRD of people who voted R in their House race...did not vote for Corbett! That's a hell of a lot of ticket-splitting!
Consider this: PA has 18 House Districts...three of the races were uncontested, and so I don't have numbers for them. Two of those Districts were R....and one was D.
Of the remaining 15 Districts...
Team Blue got about 1.25 million votes.
Yet Tom Wolf got almost 1.9 million votes!!
That means almost 700,000 votes different.
Considering the two non-contested (R) Districts, you still have about half a million R's splitting their ticket.
In 15 House races in PA....R got just over 1.5 million votes. Corbett also got just over 1.55 million votes (some of those from the uncontested races I am sure)
So...Corbett being the lone bright spot for us last night (all other wins were pretty much expected...and we got some unexpected losses) What can we take away from this?
WHEN DEMOCRATS DO NOT RUN AS LOUD AND PROUD PROGRESSIVES....WHEN TEAM BLUE DOES NOT EXCITE THE BASE....WE LOSE!!
It is that simple. There's no other take away here.
Consider:
Franken won re-election handily. He ran on an unabashed Progressive platform.
Wasserman-Schultz won in a state that re=elected Lord Voldemort.
We say we want jobs, yet we sent job outsourcer and former CEO of Dollar General, David Purdue, to the Senate from Georgia. Because Michelle Nunn DID NOT HAMMER PURDUE HARD ENOUGH ON HIS JOB OUTSOURCING.
Lundergan-Grimes lost in KY. She would not even admit voting for Obama.
We like worker rights, yet we re-elected union-buster Scott Walker in Wisconsin. Mary Burke DID NOT HAMMER HIM HARD ENOUGH ON HIS UNION-BUSTING AND HIS BROKEN PROMISES TO CREATE A LOT OF NEW JOBS. Walker has not created even 25% as many jobs as he SAID he would. Yet he was re-elected.
The takeaway should be that when we play nice, we lose.
Last night's heartbreaker was a very personal one for me, as a North Carolinian.
Tillis WAS NOT expected to win here. We all knew it would be close. And it was. 45,000 votes out of 2.9 million cast made the difference.
We say we like education here in North Carolina...yet we send the guy who cut half a billion from public education here in North Carolina to the Seante! Why? Kay Hagan did not excite THE BASE. She tried too hard to be moderate and centrist....and that does not excite the base.
So Jesse Helms' Senate seat remains cursed: Nobody since Helms has held the seat more than one term. Liddy Dole, now Kay Hagan. With any luck, the curse will hold, and Tillis will be another one-termer. But now I am stuck with two Republican Senators until 2020 at least, because Richard Burr isn't going anywhere.
Cory Gardner wins in Colorado, while a Personhood Amendment not just goes down....but goes down in flames!! Who splits their ticket THAT way?? Udall made his campaign too much about reproductive rights and did not focus on anything else. He failed to excite much of his base as a result. And as a result he lost....even as his brother WON in New Mexico.
Every indication I have pointed to tells me that, when we try to be Centrist....when we fail to excite our base....WE LOSE.
When will the Democratic Party wake up to this basic fact?
One more example before I put this Diary to rest:
Virginia....which nobody expected to be close. It WAS close! Why? Warner did not run a STRONG, PROGRESSIVE campaign. He ran as if it was 2004, not 2014. We would seem to have squeaked by in Virginia, but this one wasn't supposed to be close.
More proof that when we don't excite our base....WE LOSE.