Head below the pretzel for the breakdown that supports my inflammatory headline.
Firstly, we know that the governor's race was seen as much more competitive. On the Senate side, Terri Lynn Land had imploded, basically stopped campaigning, and was relying heavily on outside money, which later dried up. All polls had Peters up by huge margins. (Kind of like Mark Warner in Virginia, but that's another argument for another day.)
What I am really focused on is the disparity between Mark Schauer's unsuccessful vote total, and Gary Peters' successful one. Of course, the incumbency factor is at work in the governor's race, and the GOP supernova factor is at play in the Senate race, but let's break down the numbers and see what effects they may have had.
34,915 voters (1.1%) of the Governor electorate skipped the Senate race.
56,437 voters (1.8%) picked Schauer or Snyder in the Governor's race but voted third party for Senate.
Let's assume, for the sake of argument, that all of that drop-off was due to the incumbency/supernova factors mentioned previously, and give all of those votes to Terri Land. That would make the Senate race:
Peters: 1,702,460 55%
Land: 1,379,478 43%
3rd: 69,897 2%
Having equalized the two races, that still leaves 97,426 (roughly 3.1%) of Michiganders who likely split their ticket for right-wing Republican Rick Snyder and progressive, Daily Kos-endorsed Democrat Gary Peters.
W. T. F. Michigan?
Three percent of Michigan voted for both regressive and progressive taxation.
Three percent of Michigan voted for higher taxes on seniors and for lower taxes on seniors.
Three percent of Michigan voted for right-to-work laws and for strong unions.
Three percent of Michigan voted for clean energy and big oil.
The list goes on. These 3% of voters are exactly who we need to reach on an emotional level, because that is the reason for their split. It has nothing to do with policy or a candidate's record, it is how they feel about the person they are voting for. I don't mean to sound like this is bad, or that they are stupid. This is very normal, very human behavior.
If we are passionate about our cause and can connect emotionally, we can get that 3%. If we are wishy-washy and run from our own achievements as so many Dems did in 2014, splits like this will keep happening.
For you graph nerds like me, I also included 4 more, breaking down Oakland and Macomb counties in both races. For those unfamiliar with the lay of Michigan, these counties make up the north suburbs of Detroit, are socially, economically, and racially diverse, and are generally a good indicator of how a statewide race will play out. They definitely performed that task this time.