Joe Sestak don't care
Leading Off:
• PA-Sen: Democrat Joe Sestak has been preparing for a 2016 rematch with Republican Sen. Pat Toomey almost from the moment he narrowly lost to him in 2010. However, Roll Call's Emily Cahn reports that plenty of Keystone State Democrats are looking for an alternative candidate.
Sestak doesn't have a particularly good relationship with the party establishment, especially since he unseated their preferred candidate Arlen Specter in the 2010 primary. And as we've noted, Sestak's personal style often causes problems for his party. In 2012 he stubbornly refused to say if he was running for his old House seat. By the time he declared he wouldn't make a comeback, it was too late for Democrats to find a different candidate. Sestak is truly the Honey Badger of Pennsylvania politics: He doesn't care, he just takes what he wants.
Of course you can't beat Sestak with no one, and right now that's whom the state party has. Rep. Matt Cartwright and outgoing Rep. Allyson Schwartz aren't interested in running, nor is Treasurer Rob McCord. Attorney General Kathleen Kane and Montgomery County Commissioner Josh Shapiro have been named as potential contenders, but Kane's recent travails in office probably take her out of the running. We'll see if Shapiro or someone else rides in to stop Sestak, or if the Honey Badger tears his intraparty opponents apart like a king cobra.
Senate:
• LA-Sen: On behalf of Independent Women's Voice, the conservative pollster WPA Opinion Research gives us our first look at this contest in a while. Unsurprisingly they find Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu thoroughly screwed ahead of Saturday's runoff with Republican Bill Cassidy, trailing 57-33. This is a wider margin than any other runoff poll has shown but when Landrieu's best poll shows her down 11 points, that's not much comfort.
Indeed, national Democrats all but conceded this seat days after the November jungle primary, where Landrieu took only 42 percent. According to a new report from the Center for Public Integrity, conservative outside groups have aired almost 6,000 ads in the runoff compared to the 100 spots from pro-Landrieu outside groups. Cassidy himself has aired 5,000 ads to Landrieu's 3,000. The good news for Democrats is that this will all be over on Saturday.
• NC-Sen: As soon as Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan's defeat was called last month, speculation turned to her 2016 intentions. For the first time Hagan herself is commenting on her plans for next cycle, or lack of plans. In an interview with the Charlotte Observer Hagan did not rule out challenging Republican Sen. Richard Burr, saying "I am not making any decisions right now." While Hagan lost re-election she definitely ran a solid race, and she'd be a good get for the DSCC.
• NH-Sen: As the 2016 cycle begins, Republican Sen. Kelly Ayotte looks like a tough but beatable target. Democrats are hoping they can recruit Gov. Maggie Hassan, who just won re-election 52-47 in a tough environment for Team Blue. New England College wastes little time taking a look at this hypothetical clash of the titans, and they give Ayotte a 48-43 lead over Hassan.
NEC frequently polled its home state of New Hampshire during the 2014 cycle, so here's a look at their final surveys so that we can judge how accurate they were:
• NH-Sen: NEC: Brown (R) 49-48; Actual: Shaheen (D) 51-48; error +4 R
• NH-Gov: NEC: Hassan (D) 51-44; Actual: Hassan 52-47; error +2 D
• NH-01: NEC: Guinta (R) 52-43; Actual: Guinta (R) 52-48; error +5 R
• NH-02: NEC: Kuster (D) 53-42; Actual: Kuster (D) 55-45; error +1 D
NEC did quite well in the gubernatorial race and NH-02 contest, but overestimated the GOP's performance in the Senate race and in NH-01. It's also worth noting that NEC found Scott Brown up by 1 point for
four weeks in a row prior to Election Day; he ultimately lost by 3 points. We'll see if other pollsters weigh in on 2016's Senate contest, and what Hassan ultimately decides.
Gubernatorial:
• IN-Gov: We recently noted that former Democratic Rep. Baron Hill is contemplating a run against Republican Gov. Mike Pence in 2016. It turns out there's another familiar name thinking about a campaign: former state House Speaker and 2012 nominee John Gregg.
Back in October of 2013 Gregg announced he wouldn't run again, but he's been reconsidering his options over the past year. Back in May Gregg acknowledged plenty of Democrats were trying to change his mind, though he was non-committal about another run. Since then Gregg has been very active on behalf of Hoosier Democrats, and he's been talking about ways to improve the party. Gregg's actions don't necessarily foreshadow a 2016 run, but it definitely sounds like he hasn't given up on state politics.
Gregg came unexpectedly close to beating Pence in 2012, losing only 50-47 after most Democrats had given up on him. However, Pence will not be an easy target. A recent Ball State University poll gave the governor a 62 percent approval rating in this red state, and Pence will have the advantages of incumbency. It's possible that Pence will run for president instead and give us an open seat, but right now it's hard to see him losing if he seeks re-election.
House:
• ME-02: Emily Cain, who suffered one of the more surprising losses last month in Maine's open 2nd District, is reportedly in D.C. this week meeting with Nancy Pelosi and the DCCC to discuss a rematch with Republican Bruce Poliquin. After her 5-point loss, national Democrats immediately turned their eye on Cain for a repeat bid, and she's already said she's "contemplating 2016," when presidential-year demographics ought to favor her.
But even if the D-Trip gets their woman, she may not have the field to herself. State House Majority Leader Jeff McCabe, who just won a fourth term last month, says he's considering a bid, too. However, Democratic chances at picking up this seat could get completely bollixed up if former state Senate Majority Leader Troy Jackson, who lost this year's primary to Cain, tries again. That's because Jackson, bitter that establishment interests lined up against him, says he may run as an independent. If he indulges his pique, that could continue Democrat's long string of failures in Maine thanks to third-party candidates.
There is one guy, though, who pretty much seems like he won't be running: Rep. Mike Michaud, who gave up this seat to wage an unsuccessful bid for governor. According to his chief of staff, Michaud is "unlikely" to ever run for Congress again.
Other Races:
• Anchorage Mayor: Since he narrowly lost re-election last month, Democratic Sen. Mark Begich has been named as a potential candidate for the state's other Senate seat as well as its lone House district. However, Begich may instead run for his old job as mayor of Anchorage, a position he held until he won his Senate seat in 2008. Begich is rumored to be interested in running for this open seat next year, and in a Wednesday interview he did not rule it out.
Plenty of candidates from both parties are considering a run, and they're anxiously watching to see what Begich does next. The filing deadline isn't until February but as Nathaniel Herz of the Alaska Dispatch News notes, serious candidates tend to enter in December: This lets them raise as much money as they are legally allowed in both calendar years. The first round of the mayoral race is set for April 7, and it should be an interesting contest whether or not Begich runs.
• Indianapolis Mayor: Former U.S. Attorney Joe Hogsett has looked like the Democratic frontrunner in next year's open seat race for a while, and on Thursday his chief rival, state Rep. Ed DeLaney, dropped out. For now Hogsett has the field to himself, but that may not last long. The Rev. Charles Harrison is now contemplating a run, either as a Democrat or as an independent. If Harrison decides to campaign without a party label he could cost Hogsett votes in the general election, which could make all the difference in a tight race. Currently no Republicans are running, though several are mulling it over.
Grab Bag:
• Congress: Now that the elections are over, Stephen Wolf takes a close look at the membership of the 114th Congress. In his guide, Wolf has pronunciation guides to each member's name, maps of women and minority members of the House, representatives who defected on key votes, and much, much more. The entire thing is worth a look as we familiarize ourselves with the new Congress, and it will be a great resource for the next two years.
• OH Redistricting: This is moving awfully fast for anyone's comfort—except the GOP's. Ohio Republicans are pushing forward with plans to change how the state's legislative districts are drawn, one whose ramifications are somewhat difficult to discern beyond the fact that they'd almost assuredly favor the GOP. Right now, the state House and Senate are working on different plans, but they all seem to revolve around creating a commission that would pretty much always include more Republican members, though maps would require minority support to pass into law.
But before imagining that cats and dogs are lying down together upon a bed of post-partisan roses, there are contingencies in place that would allow majority-only maps to be used at least temporarily. Those majority-only maps would then be placed on the ballot and voters would have to give their approval. If they say yes, then Republicans are all set. If they say nix, then the panel just goes back to the drawing board, and whether the next set of maps it produces also needs minority support isn't clear. Otherwise it could just be back to the whole ballot measure thing again.
Yet even if the GOP has to wash, rinse, and repeat indefinitely, what do they care? They can keep forcing through maps that protect their majority every single time. What's definitely not clear is why Republicans even want to bother with this charade. Maybe they'll earn a few goo-goo points from the most clueless newspaper editorial boards, but who cares? Normal voters don't cast their votes based on issues like this. Republicans already control the entire redistricting process, so there's no upside to tweaking, especially since this new system wouldn't protect them if they get smashed in a wave election just before the Census. The whole thing is very strange.
P.S. One thing you'll notice is that these proposals only apply to legislative maps. Why? Well, Ohio Republicans are pretty pleased that they managed to gerrymander up some congressional lines that shoehorn in a delegation of 12 Republicans and just four Democrats, even though the state twice went for Barack Obama. With that in mind, House Speaker John Boehner (who of course is from Ohio himself) said he doesn't think that the congressional process needs to be changed, and Boehner's pronouncements tend to be pretty definitive when it comes to the Buckeye State.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir and Jeff Singer, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Taniel, and Dreaminonempty.