Republican David Vitter is one of many candidates looking to succeed Bobby Jindal as governor of Louisiana
With the 2014 elections over and the 2016 cycle starting to take shape, it's easy to ignore next year's major races. While the White House and Congress won't be at stake, there is plenty of action to expect for 2015. There will be exciting gubernatorial contests, and several big cities will hold mayoral elections.
What follows is a look at five elections to watch in 2015. These are far from the only important races that will happen next year, and a future post will take a look at some of the other major contests. However, these races have already begun to take shape and look like they will be exciting and unpredictable fights to the finish.
• Chicago Mayor: We'll get our first big race on Feb. 24. Mayor Rahm Emanuel has had a shaky tenure, with plenty of voters unhappy with his approach to crime and the local economy. Multiple polls show him unpopular and very vulnerable, and there's a realistic chance he could be unseated.
Rahm's main challenger looks like fellow Democrat Cook County Commissioner Jesus "Chuy" Garcia (whom Daily Kos has endorsed), with Alderman Robert Fioretti also in the mix. If no candidate takes a majority of the vote, the top-two contenders will advance to an April 7 runoff. Rahm's poor approvals could cost him a second term but he is incredibly well funded and has earned a reputation as a formidable campaigner, and he should not be underestimated.
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• Indianapolis Mayor: In 2007 Democrats unexpectedly lost this seat, but Republican Mayor Greg Ballard's retirement gives them the chance to win it back. Former U.S. Attorney Joe Hogsett currently has the Democratic field to himself. There are currently no Republican candidates, though a few are considering. The Rev. Charles Harrison, a well-connected minister, is also considering running as a Democrat or an independent.
Democrats would very much love to win here. The party's bench in the Hoosier State is not particularly deep, and a victory here would give Team Blue a potential contender for statewide office. Indianapolis leans Democratic, but in a low-turnout fall election, another GOP win isn't out of the question.
• KY-Gov: We have an open seat race here, with popular Democratic Gov. Steve Beshear termed out. Kentucky is a very conservative state (okay, commonwealth), but it's still willing to vote for Democrats at the state level.
For Team Blue, Attorney General and 2010 Senate nominee Jack Conway is in. Conway entered the race early and appears to have cleared the field. The filing deadline for the May primary is Jan. 27, so there is still time for other candidates to jump in, but not much.
Things look a bit more unsettled on the GOP side. State Agriculture Commissioner James Comer is in, as is former Louisville Metro Councilman Hal Heiner. Comer has experience winning statewide but Heiner is wealthy, and he came close to winning the mayor's office in Democratic-leaning Louisville back in 2010. State Supreme Court Justice Will Scott is also considering. Both national parties are expected to focus on Kentucky, and we should expect an expensive and competitive battle.
• LA-Gov: Republican Gov. Bobby Jindal is termed out, and we have a wild race to succeed him. In Louisiana all candidates will run on one ballot in the Oct. 24 jungle primary—if no one takes a majority, the top two contenders will advance to a Nov. 21 runoff, regardless of party.
On the GOP side, Sen. David Vitter, Lt. Gov. Jay Dardenne, and Public Service Commissioner Scott Angelle are all in. There are plenty of other potential candidates, with state Treasurer and 2008 Senate nominee John Kennedy definitely thinking about it. For the Democrats, House Minority Leader John Bell Edwards and Public Service Commissioner Foster Campbell are running. Team Blue's strongest candidate would almost certainly be New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu, though it's not clear if he's willing to run in what would be a very tough race. The candidate filing deadline is not until Sept. 10, and it's not uncommon in Louisiana for credible contenders to jump in late.
At the moment, Vitter looks like the man to beat, but the jungle primary complicates things. If Vitter makes it to a runoff with a Democrat, he'd almost certainly be the clear favorite in this conservative state. However, if Vitter faces Dardenne, things could get interesting. Dardenne has a reputation as a relatively moderate Republican, and he could conceivably forge a winning coalition of Democrats, independents, and some Republicans. Angelle isn't well-known statewide but he has some powerful allies and he shouldn't be counted out. This is likely to be a chaotic race and one very worth watching all year long.
• VA State Senate: Both the Virginia House of Delegates and state Senate will be up this November. The House has a massive Republican majority and is almost certain to remain red, but the Senate is another story.
Currently, Republicans hold a 21-to-19 edge in the Senate. If Democrats can net just one seat, Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam will break the deadlock in favor of the blue team. However, that's easier said than done. Republican voters are more likely to turn out in an off-year election, and it won't be easy for Democrats. As Daily Kos community member Johnny Longtorso recently documented, Democrats are on the defensive in a number of seats.
However, they did get one piece of good news recently when Republican Sen. John Watkins announced his retirement. Watkins represents a suburban Richmond seat that Obama won 50-48, and his departure gives Democrats a potential pickup. Democrats have absolutely no room for error if they want to retake the majority and the odds are very much against them, but there is a narrow path to victory here.
Have another 2015 race you're looking forward to? Post it in the comments!