Daniel Donovan looks like the clear Republican frontrunner for the NY-11 special election
Leading Off:
• NY-11: On Monday night, Republican Rep. Michael Grimm announced that he would resign from Congress. A special election will be held at a later date to replace Grimm, who recently pleaded guilty to tax fraud. Obama won this Staten Island seat 52-47 but it's quite ancestrally Republican: McCain carried it 51-48, and it has been represented almost entirely by Republicans throughout the last few decades.
Under New York special election law, the county parties will select their nominees. On the Republican side, Richmond County District Attorney Daniel Donovan quickly emerged as the frontrunner. Donovan has a very good relationship with the Staten Island GOP and he is widely viewed as a rising star in the party. On Tuesday Donovan confirmed his interest, declaring that he is "very seriously considering" a run.
And sure enough prominent Republicans, including Borough President James Oddo, wasted little time backing Donovan. Assemblywoman Nicole Malliotakis also quickly declared that she is "taking a serious look at the seat," though her reportedly poor relationship with the local party may harm her chances of getting picked. State Sen. Andrew Lanza is also a potential candidate but right now Donovan looks like the man to beat.
On the Democratic side, former Rep. Michael McMahon and Assemblyman Michael Cusick are the two most likely candidates. On Tuesday McMahon once again confirmed that he's interested in running, while Cusick has been a bit more quiet. However, Jillian Jorgensen of The Observer reports that Cusick would be the Democratic frontrunner if he jumps in.
Local Democrats think that Cusick is the more electable of the two, noting that he's repeatedly and easily won re-election in a swingy assembly seat. By contrast, there's still some anger with McMahon over his vote against Obamacare and concern that an old city council vote to raise property taxes could come back to haunt him. There are a lot of questions left, but right now a Cusick-Donovan matchup looks like the most likely outcome.
Senate:
• AZ-Sen: A few months ago it looked like Republican Sen. John McCain was getting ready to call it a career, but that's no longer the case. McCain hasn't announced his re-election intentions but he's been sounding more and more like a candidate, and he's backing up his talk with action. Alex Isenstadt at Politico reports that not only is McCain meeting with his fundraisers, he's working to purge his enemies from the state party and install his own allies. So far McCain's efforts are paying off, with his operation ousting the activist who was behind a resolution that censured the senator.
There's been plenty of talk of McCain receiving a primary challenge, though no one's stepped up just yet. Rep. David Schweikert has attracted the most attention but in recent weeks fellow congressman Matt Salmon has emerged as a potential rival. McCain may very well be vulnerable: A March PPP poll gave him a wretched 35-55 approval rating with his fellow Republicans. However, McCain looks like he's taking his campaign very seriously, and he very well could pull off one more win.
• Senate: Politico's Kyle Cheney takes a look at pretty much every candidate who could run in 2016's competitive Senate races, and believe me, there are a lot of them. The entire thing is worth reading for a good lay of the land.
Gubernatorial:
• ND-Gov, Sen: Back in mid-2013, Democratic Sen. Heidi Heitkamp did not rule out the possibility that she would run for governor in 2016 rather than for re-election two years later. Heitkamp hasn't said much about her plans since then, but Peace Garden State Republicans appear to be taking the idea seriously. Rob Port of SayAnythingBlog reports that a Republican legislator is drafting a bill that would forbid governors from making Senate appointments. If this bill became law, a Gov. Heitkamp would not be able to appoint another Democrat to her vacant Senate seat. Instead, a special election would be held, and the GOP would likely start out as the favorites in this conservative state.
The GOP holds the governorship and supermajorities in both legislative chambers so there's nothing stopping them from passing this, though it's unclear how much support there is for the proposal among the leadership. If this did go forward, national Democrats would almost certainly do whatever they could to dissuade Heitkamp from running for governor. Beyond Heitkamp there isn't much of a Democratic bench left in North Dakota and if Team Blue needs to choose between controlling the governorship or the Senate seat, there's really no question which one they'll pick.
For his part, Republican Gov. Jack Dalrymple is eligible to run again in 2016 but he hasn't announced his intentions. Dalrymple won 63-34 in 2012 and he doesn't appear to have done anything to alienate his constituents, and he'd almost certainly be favored for another term. If Dalrymple does call it quits, there's really no shortage of Republicans who could replace him.
House:
• NH-01: A few weeks ago, outgoing Democratic Rep. Carol Shea-Porter did not rule out yet another campaign against Republican Frank Guinta, who unseated her last month. However, Roll Call gives us some other potential Democratic names for this very swingy seat. Executive Councilor Chris Pappas is getting the most attention of all the non-Shea-Porter's, though he's also recently been mentioned as a potential Senate candidate.
Some other possible contenders include state Sens. Andrew Hosmer, Martha Fuller Clark, and Donna Soucy. Clark was the Democratic nominee twice here before she was elected to the state Senate, losing 53-45 in 2000 and 58-39 in 2002. Clark currently represents a safely Democratic seat, and Hosmer and Soucy hold much more competitive territory.
Other Races:
• Charlotte Mayor: Until recently, former Mecklenburg County Commissioner Jennifer Roberts had the Democratic field to herself. However, Councilor David Howard recently formed a campaign committee, though he says he has not made a firm decision on whether he'll run or not. On Tuesday, interim Mayor Dan Clodfelter also filed to run. Clodfelter was appointed to his post after Patrick Cannon resigned in disgrace, and has been hinting for months that he'll seek a full two-year term in 2015. Other potential Democratic candidates include Mayor Pro Tem Michael Barnes and Councilor Vi Lyles.
Unlike many major cities, general election candidates in Charlotte are chosen in partisan primaries. The first round is set for Sept. 15, and an Oct. 6 primary runoff will be held if no one takes 40 percent or more in the first round. The filing deadline isn't until July, so it will probably be a while before we know who is in and who is out. While the GOP came close to winning this seat in 2009 and 2013, there hasn't been any real action on the Republican side. 2013 nominee Edwin Peacock hasn't ruled anything out but he hasn't made any moves to run, and no one else looks ready to jump in.
Grab Bag:
• WATN: You can't make this up: Former Alaska Democratic Sen. Mike Gravel, who ran for president as a Democrat and a Libertarian in 2008, will take over as head of KUSH. If that wasn't subtle enough, KUSH is a subsidiary of Cannabis Sativa, Inc.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir and Jeff Singer, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Taniel, and Dreaminonempty.