With the sad passing of King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia, the powerful Middle-Eastern Kingdom lost a quiet voice of slow progress in the face of maddening religious regulation. Unlike Western tradition, the Saudi crown passes under conditions known as "Agnatic Seniority," better known as, "the oldest brother usually takes over." In this case, that brother's name is Salman, a 79 year old veteran of the Saudi political machine who takes over at a critical time in global political chess-games. It could be a great chance for positive change, or it could be a disaster for Middle-Eastern progress for the most painful of reasons.
To really understand the importance of his ascension, we have to explore the circumstances Salman's country is facing. It is playing the leading role in a three-way price war between Russia and America (Iran being a distant fourth), an extraordinarily dangerous game in a nation held together largely by oil revenues and faith. It's no surprise that after his elder brother's death, the price of oil launched through the roof faster than a Space-X rocket. Despite having served as a defense minister and provincial governor, this geopolitical boondoggle will be a startling challenge to a country which had been dominated by Abdullah, either directly or indirectly, for decades. It may be worse than anyone has predicted.
More-over, Saudi Arabia had been cautiously liberalizing their social policies through such radical ideas as allowing women to drive (I know; horrifying, right?). His son, Sultan Bin Salman, was the first Muslim to reach outer space thanks to the American Space Shuttle, a son who would hopefully inspire his father to embrace down-to-Earth ideals. Unfortunately, as per cables released by Wikileaks, Salman has cited social reasons as justification for resisting democratization.
Coming from a man who knew he might become a king, it sounds rather convenient. It's the sort of pragmatist argument that one expects when one knows they're in the wrong, but just don't want to be right. Yet evidence exists that Salman is a generous, caring man; he's cited as spending a great deal of time with his dying brother, Sultan. Angus McDowell of Trust.Org suggests he is an ideological moderate, similar to his late brother: He will move the country forward in its own way, at its own pace.
Yet there's another side to our story. When pondering this issue back in April 2014, no less a source than The Economist proposed that Abdullah had concerns about handing the crown to Salman because Salman may be suffering from Alzheimer's disease. Simon Henderson, in another well noted publication, The Atlantic, argued back in 2010 that Salman suffered from dementia. It is tough to determine if there is any proof that he has any illness, at all, yet these rumors haven't persisted for four years on nothing. With second-hand knowledge of what elderly dementia can do to a person, having seen it in a family member, if he is incapable of ruling there will be another transition very soon.
In the end, Salman is a hard man to read, at least from a distance. He has pedigrees in both the scientific world and conservative ideology. He has experience in leadership, but takes over at a time of fast change and uncertain allegiances. He may simply be misunderstood by analysts, or he might have serious psychological illnesses.
We'll find out soon enough!