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10:05 AM PT (Jeff Singer): OH-Sen: Wow. The Vindicator is reporting that former Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland will run for the U.S. Senate against Republican Sen. Rob Portman, though Strickland has yet to say anything publicly. Sources close to the former governor say he isn't going to announce until February.
Assuming the reports are true, Strickland is a big get for Team Blue. He has a reputation as a great campaigner: While he lost re-election in 2010 to John Kasich, he managed to keep things very close in a hellish year for Buckeye State Democrats. Strickland also is a proven vote-getter in rural eastern Ohio, an area that has turned against most Democrats in recent cycles.
Strickland will join Cincinnati Councilman P.G. Sittenfeld in the primary and will start as the clear frontrunner. Rep. Tim Ryan has also been mulling a run, but he's unlikely to challenge his old ally now. Columbus Mayor Michael Coleman and former Rep. Betty Sutton have also been talked about as candidates, though they probably won't want to take on Strickland.
Even with Strickland in, this is going to be a tough race for Democrats. Portman isn't an exciting candidate but he's one of the most formidable fundraisers in politics, and he'll have the advantage of incumbency. But Strickland gives his party a better shot at flipping this seat and perhaps the entire Senate with it. We'll be keeping a very close eye on this contest over at Daily Kos Elections as things develop.
10:55 AM PT (Jeff Singer): OH-Sen: Henry Gomez of the Plain Dealer reports that Strickland hasn't made up his mind, but is "leaning toward running." We'll see if Strickland himself says anything.
11:10 AM PT (Jeff Singer): MO-Sen: Show Me State Democrats have been focusing most of their energy to next year's gubernatorial contest, with the Senate race getting far less love. It's not hard to see why: Freshman Republican Roy Blunt has the fortune of running for re-election in a state that's largely turned against federal Democrats. Blunt also has been raising plenty of cash with the hope of scaring off any serious primary or Democratic foes.
However, Team Blue may land a credible candidate after all. The Kansas City Star reports that "sources close to" Secretary of State Jason Kander say that he's mulling a campaign here, and will make a decision by the summer. Kander won a tough open-seat race here in 2012, prevailing 49-47 even as Mitt Romney was carrying the state 54-44. Blunt is going to be a much tougher opponent than Shane Schoeller was though, and Kander would need to give up his post to run. But there aren't too many other viable Missouri Democrats who could run, and Kander would give his party at least an outside shot at an upset.
11:17 AM PT (Jeff Singer): NC-Sen: Even though Republican Sen. Richard Burr recently announced that he'd run for a third term, he's still been on a few retirement watch lists. This should put any talk of him bailing to rest though: The incumbent just hauled in $1 million in his kick-off fundraiser.
11:39 AM PT (Jeff Singer): WV-Gov, Sen: Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin has made it no secret that he's thinking about running for his old post as governor in 2016. If he won, current state law would allow him to appoint his successor to the Senate, who would serve until the seat is next up in 2018.
But state Republicans are trying to change all that, with House Speaker Tim Armstead pushing a bill that would require a special election be held instead. This would almost certainly make it easier for the GOP to take Manchin's seat: Without the benefit of incumbency, the Democratic nominee would have a tough time holding on in a state that's become very hostile to federal Democrats.
West Virginia Republican took control of the state House and Senate in November, so there's little stopping them from passing this if they want to. While Democratic Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin could veto the bill, it wouldn't do much good: Under Mountain State law, a veto can be overridden by a simple majority of both chambers. If this becomes law, national Democrats will undoubtedly pressure Manchin to stay in Washington rather than cost them a Senate seat. Whether he'd listen is another story.
12:22 PM PT (Jeff Singer): NV State Assembly: Republican Gov. Brian Sandoval recently called on his party to use their new legislative majorities to pass a tax increase, and plenty of conservatives aren't happy about it. Chuck Muth, a well-known anti-tax activist, is organizing recall campaigns against three members: Chris Edwards, Stephen Silberkraus, and Speaker-designate John Hambrick.
It's not going to be easy for Muth and his allies to unseat the three legislators. While several legislative recall campaigns have been attempted in Nevada, none of them have made it to the ballot since 1993. Over at his "The Recall Elections Blog," Joshua Spivak explained why recalls are so rare in the Silver State in a 2013 article.
Essentially, organizers need to get 25 percent of all registered voters in the district to sign the recall petition, which is not easy to do in 90 days. Nevada also requires all the signers to have actually voted in the last election for the position. By contrast, in Colorado and Wisconsin (two states where legislators were taken out in recent high-profile recalls) the number of valid signatures only needs to match 25 percent of turnout from the last election, and signers don't need to have voted then.
Edwards and Hambrick represent safe Republican seats, so Team Red won't need to worry about losing any seats if the recalls do succeed. But Stephen Silberkraus' 29th District backed Obama 50-48 and was previously held by a Democrat: If Silberkraus did go down, Democrats may be able to capitalize.
12:33 PM PT (Jeff Singer): MS-01: Very sad news from Mississippi, where Roll Call reports that Republican Rep. Alan Nunnelee's health has taken a turn for the worst. Nunnelee underwent an operation last year to remove a brain tumor, but had a stoke during the surgery. The congressman recently was diagnosed with an untreatable tumor and has been moved to hospice care.
12:40 PM PT (Jeff Singer): Great Mentioner: We continue our new Daily Kos Great Mentioner series, where we look at all the notable candidates who might run in 2016's most important races, in the First State. Former Democratic Attorney General Beau Biden, the son of the vice president, has looked like the next governor of Delaware for a while. However, while Biden's team maintains that he's running in 2016, there are new doubts if he'll actually be able to do it. While no serious Democrats want to challenge Biden in a primary, plenty are looking at running if he doesn't: Check out our post for more.
12:48 PM PT (Jeff Singer): WATN: Back in Massachusetts apparently. Republican Scott Brown, who served as a U.S. Senator from the Bay State before moving to New Hampshire to run there, is now asking for his state pension in Massachusetts.
2:20 PM PT (Jeff Singer): WATN: A year ago, Rob McCord looked like he was at least a co-frontrunner in Pennsylvania's Democratic gubernatorial primary. Now, he'll be lucky to stay out of jail. McCord recently announced he would resign as state treasurer in mid-February for unspecified reasons, though the media soon reported that he was under investigation for alleged theft of funds.
Things got even more dramatic on Friday. McCord not only immediately resigned from office, he recorded a video where he admitted to using his position as treasurer to pressure groups into donating to his campaign. McCord's lawyer announced that he will plead guilty soon. Gov. Tom Wolf, who beat McCord in the primary (to the relief of pretty much every Democrat right now) will appoint McCord's successor, who will need to be confirmed by the Republican state Senate.
3:05 PM PT (Jeff Singer): PA-Sen: Former Democratic Rep. Joe Sestak is all but certain to seek a rematch against Republican Sen. Pat Toomey, who narrowly beat him in 2010. But it's no secret that Sestak and the state Democratic establishment have a very strained relationship, and plenty of influential party leaders want someone else to serve as their standard-bearer. While Montgomery County Board of Commissioners Chair Josh Shapiro was initially touted and hasn't publicly ruled anything out, he doesn't appear to be incredibly interested in running.
Unless there's a surprise, anti-Sestak Democrats will need someone else, and they may have just found him. State Sen. Vincent Hughes got some attention after someone started buying up domain names like "Hughes4USSenate2016.com." Of course, anyone could be buying these, but not only has Hughes declined to deny his interest, his communications director has been re-tweeting the story. Maybe Hughes' team is just enjoying the attention, but it's more likely that they actually want to get his name out there.
Hughes hails from voter-rich Philadelphia and is close to labor, both of which can make a big difference in a primary. Hughes is also the ranking member of the state Senate Appropriations Committee and ran the Democrats' unsuccessful attempt to flip the chamber last year, so he can likely raise money. But Hughes will be up for re-election in 2016 and he'd need to sacrifice his influential perch in Harrisburg if he decided to run for the U.S. Senate. We'll see if he expresses interest or if the state Democratic establishment will need to resign themselves to another Sestak run.
3:27 PM PT (Jeff Singer): Maricopa County Sheriff: At 82-years old there was some speculation that Republican Joe Arpaio would call it quits when he's next up in 2016. But to the delight of many conservatives and frustration of liberals, Arpaio will seek a seventh four-year term. Arpaio won re-election in 2012 by a not-incredible 51-44 margin, but he'll be hard to beat in this huge conservative county.
His announcement has one small benefit: We get to avoid months of Arpaio flirting with a bid for higher office. In 2010 he talked about running for governor of Arizona and in the 2012 cycle he threw his name out there for U.S. Senate. Even as recently as last year, Arpaio was once again touting himself as a potential gubernatorial candidate. At least this time we'll be spared all that nonsense.