Last week
The New York Times and its partners
released a poll that on the surface seemed surprising and encouraging. The poll found 83 percent of Americans, including 86 percent of independents and 61 percent of Republicans saying that if action isn't taken to cut greenhouse gas emissions, climate change is going to cause a very serious or somewhat serious outcome in the future. It also found that 91 percent of Democrats, 78 percent of independents and 51 percent of Republicans saying they think the government should take action to fight global warming.
What's more, 48 percent of Republicans said they would be less likely to vote for someone who claims that human-caused climate change is “a hoax.” This is so even though 47 percent said they think policies designed to deal with global warming will harm the economy.
What little media coverage there was on the poll made it seem as if this reflects a sea change among rank-and-file Republicans. But it doesn't. Nearly two years ago, Yale conducted a poll—A National Survey of Republicans and Republican-Leaning Independents on Energy and Climate Change—that found:
A large majority of respondents (77%) support using renewable energy in America much more or somewhat more than it is used today (51% and 26%, respectively). Among those who support expanded use of renewable energy, the most common preferred timing for taking such action is “immediately” (69%).
A slight majority of all respondents (52%) support using fossil fuels in American much less or somewhat less than it is used today (21% and 31%, respectively). Among those who support reduced use of fossil fuels, the most common preferred timing is “immediately” (52%). By a margin of almost 2 to 1 (64% vs. 35%), respondents say America should take action to reduce our fossil fuel use. […]
Only a minority of respondents agree with the Republican Party’s position on climate change (35%), while a slight majority of respondents agree with the Party’s position on meeting America’s energy needs (51%).
Saying in the abstract that one wants to see the government more involved in doing something about climate change is a lot different than supporting specific policies and specific candidates. When Republicans get into the voting booth, the reality is that climate change—environmental issues in general—aren't high on their list of priorities. Thus do we end up with majority of the Republican congressional caucus rejecting the science behind human-caused climate change.
There's more about this after the orange oil spill.
There's another problem. It's not just Republicans who put climate change well down the list of issues needing attention. That's an American stance. And it's one of the reasons President Obama's confused "all of the above" energy policy hasn't been effectively challenged from within the Democratic Party.
If the global warming crisis were taken as seriously as it deserves, the president, all the governors, every member of Congress and every state legislator would be a climate hawk. But, in fact, the majority of them repeatedly prove by their votes and what they pay attention to when campaigning that they'd rather we all go the way of another bird—the Dodo—than enact climate policies that would make a difference as quickly as a difference needs to be made.
There are exceptions, to be sure. Secular blessings on them, including Gov. Jay Inslee of Washington and the 60 or so Democratic senators and representatives who are members of the two houses' climate-change caucuses or the handful—like Senators Barbara Boxer and Sheldon Whitehouse—who have introduced good legislation. But there are nowhere nearly enough of them.
So, despite these polls, short of a climate-change-motivated uprising, what we'll see for the foreseeable future at the national level are attacks on existing and proposed rules curtailing emissions and a failure to put forth a policy and accompanying public investment in a nationwide green-energy infrastructure. Sen. Sanders' modest bill pushing 10 million solar rooftops, for instance, will be DOA, just as it has been in the past.
We currently spend—if you take into account all costs, including caring for veterans of past wars—about a trillion dollars annually from the public purse to feed the military industrial complex. But to propose that Congress authorize an investment of a trillion dollars a year for 10 years to build green infrastructure would get one laughed out of the room. As for a carbon tax? Deeper, louder laughter.
The Times points out that in a 2011 poll, Stanford University found 72 percent of those surveyed thought climate change was caused at least in part by human activities. In the current Times' poll that figure is 81 percent—with 88 percent of Democrats, 83 percent of independents and 71 percent of Republicans saying climate change is caused at least partly by human activities.
The statistics in all three of the above polls would suggest that extensive climate change legislation ought to be a no-brainer for our lawmakers. But it's not. And they will know it's no big deal until voters put serious pressure on them to take action. The climate change movement, while populated by tens of thousands of dedicated activists, has yet to figure out a way to elicit enough of that pressure.