Sen. Heidi Heitkamp is eying the governor's mansion once again
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North Dakota's last three gubernatorial elections have all been dull affairs, with Republican incumbents John Hoeven and Jack Dalrymple winning more than 60 percent of the vote each time. But we may be in for a much more exciting race in 2016. Dalrymple is eligible to run for another term but hasn't discussed his plans yet; if he leaves, he'll set off a wide-open race.
Even if Dalrymple stays put, he may draw a tough Democratic opponent. Sen. Heidi Heitkamp won her seat by a razor's edge in one of the biggest upsets of 2012, but she's made it no secret that she'd rather be governor. Heitkamp ran for the governorship in 2000 and actually looked poised to win until she announced she was fighting breast cancer in the final month of the campaign. (She lost by 10 points to Hoeven, who is now her Senate colleague.) Heitkamp is reportedly frustrated with Capitol Hill, especially now that she's in the minority, and would rather be an executive.
North Dakota is a very red state (Romney won 58-39 here), and Dalrymple hasn't done much to alienate conservative voters. But while he'd likely be favored if he faces Heitkamp, he would need to work for re-election. Heitkamp ran perhaps the best campaign of 2012, casting herself as a friendly and compelling candidate who would work across party lines and stand up for the middle class (see this ad for an example). Heitkamp managed to eke out a stunning 1-point win in a contest that had once looked unwinnable for Democrats, and she can definitely give Dalrymple a tough race.
Heitkamp is not up for re-election to the Senate until 2018, so she would not need to risk her spot in Washington to run for governor. If Heitkamp were to become governor, under current state law, she could appoint her successor to the Senate. But some legislative Republicans have proposed a bill that would force a special Senate election instead. Republicans would be heavily favored to pick up Heitkamp's seat in such a scenario, something national Democrats would hate to see happen.
The bill so far hasn't gone very far and it may not ever make it to Dalrymple's desk. But if North Dakota Republicans want to keep Heitkamp out of the race or at least snag her Senate seat as a consolation prize, this is how they'll do it. Indeed, West Virginia Republicans are trying to do the exact same thing to keep Sen. Joe Manchin at bay. The DSCC obviously would want Heitkamp to stay put to save her seat, but as with Manchin, it's hard to see what leverage the committee might have.
If Dalrymple runs for another term, he's unlikely to face much primary opposition. But if he leaves, he'll open the floodgates for ambitious Republicans looking to succeed him. Two of the big names to watch are Lt. Gov. Drew Wrigley and Attorney General Wayne Stenehjem. Stenehjem has long been rumored to be interested in a promotion, and he also wouldn't need to risk his current job to run. However, he recently scored a big pay raise and actually makes more money than the governor, which could compel him to stay where he is.
Public Service Commissioner Brian Kalk is also a possibility. Kalk lost the 2012 primary for the state's lone House seat, so he definitely aspires for higher office. We could also conceivably see a comeback bid from former Rep. Rick Berg, who narrowly lost to Heitkamp in the 2012 Senate race. North Dakota is littered with Republican politicians, and there are plenty more who would look at running for governor if Dalrymple calls it quits.
Heitkamp would almost certainly be the Democratic nominee if she runs, but Team Blue doesn't have too many backup options if she passes. Acting state USDA Rural Development Director Jasper Schneider came very close to winning the 2008 insurance commissioner race, and he might be interested in another statewide bid. U.S. Attorney Tim Purdon just stepped down from his post, which could free him up for a campaign. Former state Senate Minority Leader Ryan Taylor ran for the job in 2012 and waged an unsuccessful campaign for agriculture commissioner in 2014, but he may not want to risk three losses in a row. It's unlikely any serious Democrat will challenge Dalrymple if he runs again, but an open seat is another story.
It may be a while before we learn if Dalrymple seeks re-election and if Heitkamp will seek this seat again, but we'll be keeping a close eye on what happens at Daily Kos Elections.
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