Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker (R)
PPP's newest poll of the Republican Party's nascent presidential primary shows thrice-elected Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker breaking away from the peloton and shooting into the lead. Here's where Walker and his brethren stand, with January's poll numbers in parentheses:
Scott Walker: 25 (11)
Ben Carson: 18 (15)
Jeb Bush: 17 (17)
Mike Huckabee: 10 (9)
Chris Christie: 5 (7)
Ted Cruz: 5 (9)
Rand Paul: 4 (4)
Rick Perry: 3 (2)
Marco Rubio: 3 (--)
Other/undecided: 11 (5)
Two key things happened since PPP last tested the field. The first is that Mitt Romney, who'd previously led with 21 percent, said adios, leaving the rest of the gang to try to scoop up his supporters. The only candidates to materially benefit, though, were Walker (who shot up 14 points), and the mythical "someone else," whose support doubled. Quite interestingly, the other establishment stalwart in the race—Jeb Bush—didn't benefit one whit from Romney's departure.
But that's because Bush's supporters hail from the more liberal (don't laugh) wing of the GOP while Romney, despite being the father of Obamacare, actually had a fair bit of support from more conservative quarters. And it's those conservative cohorts that are now cottoning to Walker, because he knows exactly how to stoke their resentments and has had ample opportunity to do so of late—the second crucial development in this race.
Indeed, you know exactly how he's been doing this. After all, you've been reading Daily Kos. Walker kicked off the month by proposing huge funding cuts for the University of Wisconsin—to the right-wing purists, a foul bastion of liberalism. And to make sure the tea partiers were paying attention, he also tried to delete the school's mission to "extend knowledge," foster "public service," and "improve the human condition" from state law—and replace it with a directive that the university should strive to "meet the state's workforce needs."
When the Disneyland-generated measles outbreak became national news, Walker made sure not to offend freedom-loving conservatives, offering an incoherent multiple-choice response when asked if vaccinations should be mandatory. He maintained his passive-aggressive scientific cluelessness on a trip to London shortly thereafter, when he famously declared he would "punt" on the question of whether he believed in evolution (at a Darwin Day event, no less).
Head below the fold to see how Walker has surged ahead.
And last week, when former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani slandered Barack Obama—at a Scott Walker fundraiser—by saying he didn't think the president "loves America," Walker again refused to condemn Giuliani or comment in any way. Walker can go on offense with this know-nothing shtick, though, too: He had no problem wondering out loud just a couple of days later that he didn't "know" whether Obama is a Christian.
On a more traditional note, Walker tacked back to the right on abortion, telling Iowa Republicans he now supports a fetal personhood amendment (even though he'd run ads in his re-election campaign last year saying he thought "the final decision" belongs "to a woman and her doctor"). Meanwhile, back home, his fellow Republicans in the legislature have prepared so-called "right-to-work" legislation, the GOP's favorite tool to sabotage unions, for his signature.
All in all, it's been a great February for Walker, who has managed to make himself look like a fool to progressives and even a good swath of the traditional media, but who has taken advantage of every opportunity to burnish his credentials with conservative voters. And it's paid off handsomely, as PPP's poll shows.
Do not mistake Walker for a clown, though. He knows exactly what he's doing. He backed off the University of Wisconsin shenanigans, for instance, making up a story about a "drafting error." And a staffer later "clarified" that of course Walker knows Obama is a Christian. The conservatives that Walker is playing to hear the original remarks and ignore the clarifications; the media then downplays the original remarks because of the clarifications, so they have less of an impact with ordinary folks (who, in any event, won't tune into the presidential race for quite some time).
Add in Walker's sleepy-eyed appearance—he certainly doesn't look like a crazy screamer—and he could fool a lot of people. After all, he's already won three times in swingy Wisconsin, and he has an extraordinarily large fundraising list, made up of small donors and big Koches alike. If there's a Republican contender I'm most worried about in 2016, it's Scott Walker. He's crafty, he's canny, and while it's early yet, this poll at least shows he could very well be the GOP nominee, so watch out for him, very closely.