Scott Walker has apparently been anointed as the frontrunner in the GOP race for 2016, and the past few days have given him a raft of polls to prove it.
But don't look back, Scotty. It appears the Wisconsin natives are on to you.
Oh, Scotty makes a good first impression. But the more you know about the preacher's son, the less you like him.
Below the fold for the polling fun.
A recent series of polls appear to put Scott Walker in a commanding lead for the republican nomination (as much as that means at this point):
South Carolina (Winthrop)
ROCK HILL, SOUTH CAROLINA – In the early horse race for the 2016 S.C. Republican Presidential primary, Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker and former Florida Governor Jeb Bush lead the pack with 13.6% and 12.7% of the voters, respectively, if the vote were held today, according to the latest Winthrop Poll.
The remaining dozen other candidates garnered single digit support or less in the poll of likely GOP voters. (See Table T10) However, former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee and Bush show the most potential support in a series of questions that asked respondents whether they would consider voting for each candidate.
Other politicians close behind if the election were held today are the U.S. senators - Ted Cruz of Texas, Lindsey Graham of South Carolina and Rand Paul of Kentucky. Bush appears to have converted more of his potential support into active support, said Poll Director Scott Huffmon.
Everyone else in single digits. Even Lindsey Graham... remind me again what state he's from?
New Hampshire (Public Policy Polling)
Raleigh, N.C. – Public Policy Polling's newest survey of the Republican primary for President in New Hampshire finds Scott Walker in a tier by himself- 24% of voters say he's their top choice to 14% for Ted Cruz, 12% for Rand Paul, 10% for Jeb Bush, 8% each for Marco Rubio and Chris Christie, 7% each for Mike Huckabee and Ben Carson,
and 4% for Rick Perry.
Walker is easily the best liked of the potential GOP contenders in New Hampshire. 57% of voters have a favorable opinion of him to only 13% with a negative one. Walker's strength lies in his ability to appeal to the different ideological factions within the Republican electorate- he leads with voters identifying themselves as moderates, 'somewhat conservative,' and 'very conservative' alike.
“Hillary Clinton is still the overwhelming favorite in New Hampshire even though her
support isn’t quite what it used to be,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy
Polling®. “Meanwhile Scott Walker has a clear lead on the Republican side- who knows where he’ll be a year from now but he’s at least proven to be the flavor of two months in contrast to many contenders who shot to the top for very short periods of time in 2012.”
Whoa. 24% for Walker vs. 10% for Jeb. That burnt smell you're smelling might be coming from the Bush III campaign.
And, of course, Iowa (Quinnipiac) (although it's a little older):
An early look at likely Iowa Republican Caucus participants shows a strong conservative tilt as Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker leads the pack with 25 percent, twice as high as his nearest rival, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. (Feb. 25)
There is a horse race for second place, with 13 percent for U.S. Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky, 11 percent each for Michigan physician Ben Carson and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and 10 percent for former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush. No other candidate is above 5 percent and 9 percent are undecided.
OK. So Walker leads in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. So much for his good news.
The very bad news for Scott Walker.
We also saw the release of a poll in Wisconsin - the Marquette Law poll -
Marquette Law School Poll finds Walker job approval down.
Some tidbits:
MILWAUKEE – A new Marquette Law School Poll finds Gov. Scott Walker’s job approval rating has fallen to 41 percent, with 56 percent of registered voters in Wisconsin saying they disapprove of how he is handling his job as governor. In the previous poll, in October 2014, Walker’s approval among registered voters was 49 percent, with 47 percent disapproving.
To look ahead to a possible 2016 presidential matchup, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton leads Walker in Wisconsin, 52 percent to 40 percent.
(snip)
Clinton leads five potential Republican opponents in hypothetical 2016 matchups among registered voters. Clinton leads Paul 49-41, leads Bush 49-38, leads Walker 52-40, leads Rubio 50-38 and leads Cruz 52-36.
That's right. Walker's 12 point underwater with Clinton
in his own state. What's more,
he underperforms the field.
Poopdogcomedy already diaried on this: WI-Sen: New Marquette University Poll Has Russ Feingold (D) Leading Ron Johnson (R) 54-38
In a possible 2016 U.S. Senate race, former Sen. Russ Feingold has the support of 54 percent of registered voter, leading incumbent Sen. Ron Johnson, who has 38 percent, with 9 percent not expressing a preference.
That's gonna leave a mark. Feingold's already over 50%.
Some other tidbits:
Voters’ views of the direction of the state have taken a downturn since October. Fifty-three percent say that the state is now on the wrong track while 43 percent say the state is headed in the right direction...
Voters also see the state’s employment situation as turning down compared to other states, with 52 percent saying that Wisconsin is lagging behind other states in job creation...
Opinion about the state’s budget situation has also turned more negative...
Good Morning Wisconsin! People are paying attention to Walker's actual policies.
Asked which is more important, reducing property taxes or increasing spending on public schools, 40 percent say reducing property taxes is more important while 54 percent say increasing spending on schools is more important.
A majority believes it's more important to spend money on schools than to cut taxes. I believe we are here at the turn of the tide.
Analysis.
My own spin on this - Walker is beloved by extreme conservatives. He's their darling. He doesn't have the silver spoon in his mouth that Jeb does, he sounds more reasonable than Cruz or Huckabee, and he's (ahem) whiter than Rubio. The divisiveness, the bait-and-switch, that he's brought to Wisconsin are features for the average/extreme republican voter, not a bug. They are tired of "moderate" candidates like John McCain and Mitt Romney, and they want to go full-throated conservative.
At the same time, the more independents and midstream Republicans look at his policies, and the divisiveness he's brought to Wisconsin, the less they like him and his radical politics.
I see the potential for a perfect storm. I think Walker, at this point, could have a clear path to the nomination. And if he wins, I think Hillary will destroy him in one of the epic electoral smackdowns of all time (if he doesn't do himself in with unforced errors).
I'm just hoping it has coattails.
3:49 PM PT: You can see Puddytat's excellent diary focusing on the polling for Feingold vs. Dumb Ron Johnson at http://www.dailykos.com/...