Indiana Republican Gov. Mike Pence
On Thursday, former state House Speaker and 2012 Democratic nominee John Gregg
announced that he would seek a rematch with Republican Gov. Mike Pence. Pence prevailed by a surprisingly narrow 50-47 margin last time, and the governor's popularity at home took a major hit after he started a national firestorm when he signed the Religious Freedom Restoration Act, which could have allowed businesses to refuse to serve gay people.
A few months ago, Pence looked safe in conservative Indiana, but two recent polls show him struggling in head-to-head matchups with Gregg. And while voters' anger over Pence's handling of the RFRA may fade in the next year-and-a-half, traditional Republican business groups may be less forgiving. Gregg himself says that he was encouraged to run by business people who knew that the RFRA could harm Indiana long-term: If they come to his aid, Pence will be in real trouble next year.
Still, not all Democrats are sold on Gregg. While they acknowledge he is personally very appealing, they were disappointed with his weak fundraising last time. And while Gregg opposed the RFRA, he's still quite socially conservative. A few other Democrats have been mentioned as potential primary challengers, and one of them seems to be moving toward a gubernatorial bid. Despite earlier announcing that she would run for a second term next year, state Superintendent of Public Instruction Glenda Ritz now says that a gubernatorial campaign is "on the table," and she says she'll decide by June.
A recent poll gave Pence only a 42-39 lead against Ritz, while Gregg trailed 43-37. Ritz has also won statewide once, unseating GOP incumbent Tony Bennett 53-47 in 2012. Pence and the Republican legislature have been working to strip Ritz of her duties in revenge for her opposition to their policies, claiming she badly handled a statewide test. If Ritz runs, Team Red will definitely continue to portray her as incompetent though.
It's not going to be easy to unseat even a wounded Pence in a state as red as Indiana. Still, Hoosiers have proven that they're willing to split their ballots, and if business groups take up arms against the governor, he'll be in real trouble. A few months ago this contest looked like a snoozer, but now it's become of one of 2016's must-watch races.