Rep. Frank Guinta, NH-01, is under fire from is own party. This follows his settlement with the Federal Elections Commission in which he effectively conceded that he had illegally funded his own campaign back in 2010, to the tune of some $240,000.
The right-wing Manchester Union Leader ran an editorial: "Frank Guinta Is a Dirty Liar." I'd provide a link, but that's the editorial in its entirety. The next day the paper called on him to resign. The state's junior Senator, Kelly Ayotte, and the Republican leaders of the state House and Senate, have joined in the call.
Guinta is holding fast. But how would a resignation play out?
The calendar.
The federal Constitution allows states to grant the governor authority to appoint Senators to fill vacancies, but it sets a different process for House vacancies:
When vacancies happen in the Representation from any state, the executive authority thereof shall issue writs of election to fill such vacancies.[emphasis mine]
You're probably thinking "Executive authority? Oh, the Governor." You haven't met New Hampshire's Executive Council.
It's a five member body that (theoretically) acts as a check on gubernatorial power. State law requires that the writs of election be issued by the Governor and Council. First comes a primary - unless only one candidate files in each party. Expect a primary; there are few barriers to running.
State law call for the general election to be held "on a Tuesday not less than 110 nor more than 124 days following the day that the governor and council declare that there shall be a special election". The primary election must be held exactly seven weeks earlier.
If Guinta resigned tonight, and the Governor and Council called for a special election next week, the primary would be held between July 28th and August 11th, with the special election itself held between September 15th and September 29th.
The politics.
But this assumes the election gets scheduled quickly. The Constitutional text doesn't impose a clock on the state (I don't know whether there have been cases litigating for one). Even if everybody wanted to move quickly, we have a Democratic Governor and and a 3-2 Republican majority on the Council.
There's only about two months between calling for the election and the primary vote: it seems entirely possible that the Council, or the Governor, may want to let the matter sit for a while, to see who may run and to give them a chance to get started. They might want to do that in the interest of An Informed Electorate (heh). Or they might think the delay would help their candidate, or party.
And some of the Councilors might think about running.
The later a special election is held, the more it becomes an issue in the Presidential primary. The GOP candidates may be lured into endorsements: a local pol who has endorsed them earlier may run, or a strong candidate may seem to have coattails (when the Presidential field is polling about 12% each, and the Congressional candidate is likely to polls 35-55% before the primary, that sure seems tempting.)
That seven week general election campaign, after the candidate is chosen, would be either a major distraction or a major opportunity for the Republican field. Lots of speaking opportunities and face time - but maybe a little more focus on local New Hampshire issues than the field is comfortable with.
So how does all this play out? Not well for the Grand Old Party, as I see it. They would be better off if Guinta stayed in place. All the Republican candidates could just condemn him - the state party leaders have effectively given permission. They would be in their favorite place: just Saying No, but to Guinta rather than to Obama. If there's a special election, though, they will have to place their bets - or risk alienating the same True Believers they need in February.