There is a new study out in Nature that's gotten some attention. According to the coverage, the study proves that not only will global warming stop, but the next decade is going to actually get cooler.
Sound wrong? Well, it is. Sou at "Hot Whopper" has a lengthy post that dives into the issue and debunks a Bob Tisdale post at WUWT. The Nature paper looks at the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, a medium-term trend in Atlantic Ocean temperatures, and comes to the conclusion that we can expect 0.5°C of cooling in the coming decades, at least according to the press release.
It's all rather complicated, but the controversy comes down to the fact that the paper uses linear detrending to come to its conclusion. As Sou details, there are a number of papers in the scientific literature explaining why that is not a proper way to separate natural variability from external forces (like pollution).
But if you are overwhelmed by Sou's post and the conversation around this study, you're in luck, because Michael Mann didn't mince words in his tweet about it. Mann points to studies from 2014 and 2015 that found the use of linear detrending of sea surface temperatures to define the AMO to be "fatally flawed."
Mann is undoubtedly someone who would know about the AMO, considering he's the one that coined the term.
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