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While we mainly focus on American races at Daily Kos Elections, 2015 offers plenty of exciting international elections. Just recently, we saw the left win in Alberta, Canada's most conservative province, for the first time in 85 years. But for every progressive victory, there are defeats. Labour looked like it might deny Conservative Prime Minister David Cameron a second term in the United Kingdom, but the polling was systematically off and the Conservatives won an overall majority.
So, what else might be on the calendar? Let's take a look at which countries might be of interest to progressive American election watchers.
• Danish Parliamentary Election - June 18th
Denmark has been governed by a minority coalition of moderate left-wing parties with other leftist parties supporting the government on confidence motions from the outside. For years, this election looked like a near-certain defeat for the collective left after they just barely won in 2011. Denmark's economy has been fairly stagnant, with a housing bubble pushing up prices and putting the squeeze on residents. And until last year, GDP growth was almost negligible compared to usual.
With the right posting consistent leads over the last four years, it looked like the governing center-left Social Democrats were in for a drubbing. However, when Prime Minister Helle Thorning-Schmidt's government suddenly called for elections a few months early, polling shifted sharply. Improving economic conditions and an acquiescence to potential changes in immigration policy have benefitted the left bloc. Now, it's a hotly contested tossup between the left and right blocs. Denmark uses proportional representation, so no party will get a majority.
Still, polls indicate that the Social Democrats will regain a plurality of the vote with roughly one fourth (they came in a close second in 2011 but were able to form the governing coalition). The center-right Venstre is in second with about 20 percent, but nipping at their heels is the ultra-nationalist, right-wing, anti-immigrant Danish People's Party. On the other side of the spectrum, the Red-Green Alliance is polling just under 10 percent, which would be the best performance for the far left in generations.
Greenland and the Faroe Islands also elect members of the Danish Parliament, with two representatives each. In 2011, both Greenland members and one Faroe Islands member voted with the left-wing bloc while the other Faroe Islands member voted with the right. These members could be crucial in a close race.
This country, in contention for the most progressive, equal, and happiest in the world will definitely be one to watch, as just like 2011 it looks likely to come down to the wire.
Head below the fold for more international elections to watch.
• Guatemalan President and Congress - September 6th
Guatemala is one of the few countries in Latin America that the left does not currently govern. Term-limited President Otto Pérez belongs to the center-right to right-wing Patriotic Party. Along with the center-right Renewed Democratic Liberty Party, the right has an overall majority in the unicameral Congress. Information on contemporary Guatemalan (or much of Latin American) politics is not readily attained for non-Spanish speakers, so input from readers is welcome.
• Portuguese Parliamentary Election - By October 11th
Parliamentary elections present a huge opportunity for the center-left Socialist Party to take back power after years of unpopular austerity forced upon Portugal by the Eurozone and EU. Currently, Prime Minister Pedro Passos Coelho's center-right Social Democratic Party and the right-wing Christian Democratic "CDS - People's Party" hold a majority.
Opinion polling has given the Socialists a consistent lead for years and they're currently in the upper 30s. The communist and green United Democratic Coalition is polling at roughly 10 percent while another left-wing party, the democratic socialist Left Bloc, is polling around 4 percent. That would give left-of-center parties a majority if the far-left will compromise with the center-left as they have done in the past.
The Social Democrats had been polling no higher than 30 percent, while their right-wing ally CDS-PP had been polling in the high single digits. After a recent announcement that the parties would contest the election through a joint coalition, initial polling has the coalition in the mid-30s. That would give the left a clear win, with the potential for a Socialist majority if minor parties fail to pass the de facto threshold. Portuguese seats are elected proportionally, but some multi-member districts effectively have a threshold simply through low seat allocation.
• Swiss Federal Assembly Election - October 18th
Switzerland's combination of direct democracy and federalism give it a fairly unique political system. Switzerland has proportional lower house, the Assembly, and a region-based upper house, the Council of States. Rather than have a unitary head of state and government, Switzerland uses a rotating presidency from among a quasi-cabinet of Federal Council members. Partisan and regional balance is effectively required, along with linguistic balance among the three major language groups: German, French, and Italian.
Opinion polling has shown barely any change for the several parties in parliament since 2011. Currently the right-wing, Euro-skeptic Swiss People's Party is maintaining its share as the most popular party with about a quarter of the vote, but they're well short of a majority. The system of Swiss federalism also ensures that they'll continue to govern together with other parties. The center-left and pro-European Social Democrats are languishing in second with just a fifth of the vote, while the left-wing Greens have a little under 10 percent support. A few more centrist parties will be represented as well.
Overall the status quo is likely to continue, with center-right, Euro-skeptic policies. Switzerland has long had very stable partisan representation with relatively few of the sharp changes that can be typical of multi-party countries.
• Canadian House of Commons Election - October 19th
With crashing oil prices hurting the Canadian economy, we could see a resounding defeat for Prime Minister Stephen Harper's Conservative Party. Polls have shown them tumbling from nearly 40 percent in 2011 to roughly 30 percent today. While the right hasn't won a majority of the vote in Canada since 1984, the country's electoral system has helped keep them in power since their 2006 victory. It only takes a simple plurality (also known as first-past-the-post) to win a seat in the House of Commons, and the larger left-wing vote is frequently split between the center-left, social democratic New Democratic Party and centrist to center-left Liberals.
Long the governing party of the left in Canada, 2011 saw the Liberals slide to third place for the first time while the NDP surged to their best result ever. After the NDP's historic landslide in Alberta a month ago, the party received a bounce in the polls and there is currently a three-way tie between the Conservatives, Liberals and NDP. Harper's recent anti-terrorism law has proven to be deeply unpopular, and the Liberals blundered badly by supporting it. The NDP, by contrast, always stood steadfastly opposed.
Because first-past-the-post typically produces a two-party system so that factions don't split the vote, many voters will vote tactically in this election, and it's hard to say what the outcome will be. The NDP effectively demolished the long-dominant, separatist Bloc Quebecois in Quebec in 2011, and it's quite possible they'll continue to secure seats in this fairly left-wing province. The Liberals led an NDP-backed minority-government after the 2004 election, so we could see the two parties join together after the election to lock out the Conservatives. But it remains to be seen if Justin Trudeau's Liberal Party or the NDP under Thomas Mulcair will have more seats, or even if low oil prices will continue to significantly hurt the incumbent Conservatives.
• Argentine Presidential and Legislative Election - October 25th
To understand Argentinian politics, you need to know that elections generally don't take place along a traditional left/right divide but between Peronist and anti-Peronist electoral alliances. Peronism, named for former President Juan Domingo Perón, is seen as mostly left-wing but also has a strong authoritarian streak and tends toward a cult of personality for whoever is leading the party. But it does have strong support within the Argentinian working classes and has taken many economically progressive actions.
Current President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner is term-limited and cannot run again. Her electoral alliance, the Peronist Front for Victory (FFV), will hold a primary to choose her replacement. The favorite is Daniel Scioli, governor of Buenos Aires, with Florencio Randazzo, the justice minister and a Kirchner ally, also in contention.
The main opposition alliance, the anti-Peronist (and mostly left-wing) Broad Front UNEN, has nominated Margarita Stolbizer, a National Deputy from Buenos Aires. However she is well back in the polls and not seen as a factor despite her alliance's strong representation in the legislature, where they are the second largest party.
There are two other major parties contesting the election. The pro-Peron but anti-Kirchner (called Dissident Peronism) United for a New Argentina was founded in 2013. It is led by former Kirchner Chief of the Cabinet of Ministers Sergio Massa, who is also their likely presidential nominee.
Finally, Republican Proposal (PRO) is the anti-Peron, center-right party. Its likely nominee, Mauricio Macri, is a prominent businessman and Chief of Government (Mayor) of Buenos Aires. Macri has gotten a party normally allied with BF UNEN alliance to support him, and he has clearly become the leading anti-Peronist candidate. Recent polling has shown him as the most competitive challenger to the current favorite Scioli and the two of them are likely to head to a runoff.
Complicating matters is the saga of Alberto Nisman. He was a high-ranking prosecutor investigating the role of President Fernandez in the fallout of the bombing of a Jewish center in 1994 that was linked to Iran. Nisman was found murdered in a manner made to look like a suicide the very day before he was to file a brief that would have implicated Fernandez in covering up Iran's role in the bombing in exchange for oil. This story is still unfolding three months later and it is unclear what the impact will be on Fernandez and her party.
Regardless of the presidential election results, FFV is expected to remain the largest party in both the House and Senate, as only one-third of Senate seats and half of House seats are up for election.
• Polish Parliamentary Election - By October 30th
Due to the legacy of communism and the devastating corruption scandals that rocked the post-communist left a decade ago, Poland's current politics are mainly a competition between the center-right Civic Platform (PO) and the more right-wing Law and Justice Party (PiS). This being Europe however, the left-right dichotomy has added layers of nuance that are not typical to the U.S.
Both PO and PiS are conservative parties, but PO is much more pro-European and somewhat more socially liberal. PiS on the other hand belongs to what we might call the populist right, wanting more generous social welfare policies for Poles and being less enamored with Europe. The added threat of Russia in neighboring Ukraine has also helped the PiS campaign on being strong on national security.
While Poland has a fairly ceremonial president, he can still delay or veto certain legislation and is commander-in-chief. After what looked like a probable re-election victory, incumbent President Bronislaw Komorowski of PO surprisingly lost to PiS challenger Andrej Duda. Subsequently, polling has been relatively volatile in the past month. Regardless of which party comes in first, Poland's proportional representation will almost certainly prevent either one from attaining a majority and it is not immediately clear which of the more minor parties would join the subsequent coalition.
One extremely fascinating fact about the geographic divide between PO and PiS is how closely it adheres to the pre-World War I border between the old German and Russian empires. PO wins by running up the score in the formerly-German west and big cities of the east like Warsaw, while PiS wins the formerly-Russian east, especially in rural areas.
• Spanish Parliamentary Election - By December 20th
As with Greece, Spain has suffered a calamity akin to the Great Depression ever since the 2008 financial crisis. Elected in 2011 over the unpopular governing center-left Socialists, the governing People's Party (PP) has become deeply unpopular over years of hard fiscal austerity. Long dominated by the Socialists and PP, Spain has seen an explosion of support for new and radical parties over the last year due to the unpopularity of austerity and corruption scandals that have rocked the two major parties.
Podemos is a new radical left-wing party formed and led by political science professor and media personality Pablo Iglesias. From its inception in early 2014 to the end of the year it rapidly grew and shot up to plurality leads in some polls, though their numbers have since stagnated. The party was formed out of the Indignados movement, or Spain's equivalent of Occupy Wall Street, and their goal is to end austerity and produce a more equitable distribution of wealth in the country.
On the right, the People's Party has dropped well below their 2011 result of 45 percent and a new centrist party, Ciudadanos, has rocketed up from near no support to roughly 15 percent since the start of the year. Polling has been more stable the last few months, with left of center parties holding a slight lead and it being unclear what coalition would be the outcome of this election.
Long the home of left-wing and far-left support in Spain, the communist United Left has seen its support collapse as its voters have flocked to Podemos. A few other regionally based parties will win seats, such as those in separatist-sympathizing Catalonia.
Aside from Canada, this is the most important election to watch this year. Access to power by radical, anti-austerity Podemos has serious implications for the future of the Eurozone and the Greek debt and currency crisis. Iglesias is an ally of radical-left Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras' Syriza-led government and both have become serious players due to the devastating economic impact of fiscal austerity forced upon peripheral Eurozone countries by Germany and the continent's financial elite.
• Venezuelan Parliamentary Election - Unknown Date
While neither free nor fair, the elections for Venezuela's parliament are interesting because of the economic calamity the incumbent Chavista regime is experiencing. Riding a tide of discontent in the early 2000s, Hugo Chavez came to power and his supposedly-socialist United Socialist Party transformed Venezuela's economy and political system.
When oil prices were high, the government spent heavily on public works and subsidies, leading to a considerable decline in poverty. But when oil volatility and economic downturn occurred, along with Chavez' untimely death from cancer in 2013, his successor as president, Nicolas Maduro, has led to an increasingly brutal crackdown over the opposition and persecution of political opponents. Years of poor economic planning have led to catastrophic shortages of common consumer goods like toilet paper and currently the opposition is staging mass protests.
While not truly a democratic process, these elections aren't completely a sham. Maduro, who only barely won his initial election under conditions the opposition alleged were fraudulent, is extremely unpopular and will weigh down on his party. The future of the Venezuelan system of political economy is increasingly uncertain as protests continue.
There are also several elections in developing countries, but in many cases these elections are neither free nor fair. Kazakhstan is one such example where the president recently won re-election with 98 percent of the vote in elections that were clearly rigged.
We may also see some other countries come onto the 2015 calendar due to a snap-election, a government collapse, or a failure to form a new government after a previous election. But no matter what, we're going to have a lot of exciting races to watch this year.
Thank you to James L, David Beard, and Tayya for their insights into these races.