In what will probably be the last of my “Polls-That-Don’t-Mean-Much-This-Early-On-But-Look-At-Bernie’s-Early-Traction” series (I just made that up), I thought it’d be appropriate to highlight what the Morning Consult polling folks have just discovered (survey period was Sunday, May 31st through Monday, June 8th, online and by phone): Clinton’s still kicking everyone’s ass in Iowa (Clinton 54%, Sanders 12%, Biden 9%) and South Carolina (Clinton 56%, Biden 15%, Sanders 10%), but it may already be turning into a horse race in New Hampshire (Clinton 44%, Sanders 32%). (MoE 6%.)
Clinton Leads in Early States,
But Sanders Popular in New Hampshire
Reid Wilson
Morning Consult
June 14, 2015
Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton leads the Democratic primary field by a wide margin in three early nominating states — though any Democrat who captures the party’s presidential title could be saddled with an albatross named Barack Obama.
Clinton takes 54 percent of the vote in Iowa, compared with just 12 percent for Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and 9 percent for Vice President Joe Biden. In South Carolina, Clinton leads Biden by a 56 percent to 15 percent margin, with Sanders trailing at 10 percent…
…
… But in the state that provided Clinton her biggest boost in 2008, the margin is much closer: Among voters who say they will participate in New Hampshire’s Democratic primary, 44 percent choose Clinton, while 32 percent pick Sanders, who hails from neighboring Vermont.
In the New Hampshire survey, Biden takes 8 percent of the vote…
In all three states, Morning Consult noted: “Former Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley (D), former Sen. Jim Webb (D-Va.) and former Rhode Island Gov. Lincoln Chafee are still struggling to register in all three early states. O’Malley takes 3 percent of the vote in South Carolina, 2 percent in New Hampshire and 1 percent in Iowa.”
So, in the past week, in addition to the newest story, above--which, by the way, is the first legitimate indication that Bernie may pull more than 30%, which runs against our site owner's, and many Kossacks' conventional wisdom--we’ve learned:
• Sanders is just eight points behind Clinton among Wisconsin’s Democratic Party leaders (via results from their convention’s straw poll);
• the Working Families Party is taking a serious look at endorsing Sanders’ presidential run (but, whomever they endorse, it won’t be determined until early 2016);
• Reuters/Ipsos national poll: Clinton 53%, Sanders 22%, Biden 19%.
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Show Bernie some love!
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