The Committee for Skeptical Inquiry (CSI) has thrown down the gauntlet, challenging the Heartland Institute to stand behind its claim that global warming has stopped. They've issued a $25,000 Climate Challenge, promising to donate $25,000 to a science education nonprofit of Heartland's choosing if the 30-year average global land surface temperature fails to set a new record in 2015, as well as every year thereafter. It's important to note that the 30-year average means that this is about climate, not weather. The challenge isn't just taking into account whether or not it's a record hot year, but whether the larger (climatic) trend continues. In essence, CSI is making a point about Heartland's misleading attempts to portray warming in terms of 15-year "pause" instead of a climatically relevant 30-year trend.
CSI got significant press last December when they issued a letter to media to stop calling deniers "skeptics," perhaps thanks to high-profile signatories like Bill Nye and Richard Dawkins. Attention over this challenge will likely rely on what sort of response Heartland provides.
Will they stand by their "no warming" talking points and take the bet? Or will they admit their claims are dishonest by refusing?
While the odds that Heartland win the wager are basically zero, the odds that they even accept the challenge probably aren't much better. Either way, they've been betting against anyone calling their bluff for far too long.
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