Now that the trade adjustment program for workers is dead and probably will end this year for good, House Republicans and the White House are moving forward with Fast Track authority as a stand alone measure:
“That would be a very good option,” House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R., Calif.) said at The Wall Street Journal’s CFO Network Conference in Washington. GOP leaders said no final decisions have yet been made and timing remained fluid.
The plan would require the House to vote again on the fast-track legislation, which narrowly passed there on Friday in a 219-211 vote. That measure would then be sent back to the Senate, potentially sparking a fresh intraparty fight among Democrats.
The proposal under consideration would include the workers’ aid program in a trade preferences bill that also would be voted on in the Senate, aides said.
An Obama administration official said the White House is involved in the latest discussions about moving forward on fast track and the workers aid program. The administration is willing to consider a variety of ways of advancing the legislation, the official said.
In a related matter, the House voted in a
new rule to extend the window for a revote on the worker assistance until the end of July. But they aren't waiting until then to move the presidential authority bill. There is a backstory to the rule vote and its robustness. Many of the House votes against the trade authority were because of dislike of the previous rule that linked the two bills. The two bills were linked together to atteact Democrats to the trade measure, a gambit that came from the White House that failed. Conservatives didn't like it as they felt it conceded too much to Obama and Pelosi. House ultra conservatives balked and 3 ultra right wing members of the whip team did not whip the vote as they opposed the rule. Well, those three
whips were fired today:
House GOP leaders booted three members off the whip team for voting against a procedural rule that structured how a critical trade package was brought to the House floor last week.
Majority Whip Steve Scalise (R-La.) informed Reps. Cynthia Lummis (Wyo.), Steve Pearce (N.M.) and Trent Franks (Ariz.) on Monday that they were no longer a part of the GOP’s vote-counting operation, a source close to the whip team confirmed.
Scalise’s decision was based on longstanding whip team rules that stated members must “vote as a team on procedural matters” but are free to vote against leadership on underlying legislation, the source said.
The rule passed today indicates discipline has been restored, which is making it incresingly likely that Republicans will need a lot less Democrats to move the stand alone fast track bill. If any. Reports are Boehner is not negotiating with Pelosi but is in constant communication with the White House.
Pro TPP House and Senate Democrats met this evening, but so far are taking a wait and see approach :
“I want to hear what the Senate Democrats have to say about it,” said Rep. John Delaney (D., Md.), who supports the trade package.
House and Senate Democrats who back Mr. Obama’s trade policy met Tuesday evening to discuss the proposal and were expected to reconvene Wednesday morning.
“We’re just trying to figure out the best way” to pass both measures, said Rep. Ron Kind (D., Wis.), chairman of the New Democrat Coalition, a group of centrist, business-friendly Democrats. “The tough vote was already taken” on the fast-track measure, he said.
The tough vote was already taken. In other words, if you supported fast track before, you'd be a fool not to support it now. You've already made yourself a target for labor. Change your vote and you'll be a target for big business too. That sounds like politician calculation if I've ever heard it.
The question is what happens in the Senate to a new fast track stand alone bill. So far, Wyden, widely considered the bellwether on this matter, has been neutral and playing it close to the vest. 'Wont engage in hypotheticals' and all that. To me, that's a 'send the bill over here and then we talk' move. But we will hear more in thr morning for clarity.
There were 62 votes for the Senate combined bill, clearing cloture. There 5 Republicans who voted no. Paul is probably a certain repeat no, and possibly Lee too. But Sessions, Collins, and Shelby can probably be brought around for a stand alone bill with no worker assistance. They hate assisting workers. But there might be some Dem votes that would or could peel off from Fast Track, but Wyden will probably make that call. There are some Senate Dems who are going to be for it regardless, especially those from states that have high exports of agriculture and minerals.
All in all, I'd say the fast track phase of this looks like its headed for the Resolute Desk.
As for the worker assistance, now that House Democrats have killed it its going to be hard to revive it.
For the record, I am a staunch protectionist and opposed to TPP, NAFTA, the WTO, the European Union and free trade and globalization generally. America is the one nation blessed enough to be able to grow, manufacture, and consume everything it needs internally. But, I also realize that is very much a minority viewpoint. Most Americans love buying cheap, foreign shit so that's why we have free trade. I will obviously have to live with it.