Democratic Rep. Jim Costa
Rep. Jim Costa is one of the biggest pains in the Democratic caucus. Despite representing a seat
Obama won 59-39, Costa has one of the
most conservative voting records of any House Democrat, with him
voting for the Keystone Pipeline this year.
Costa is also a notoriously bad campaigner who nearly cost his party a seat last year. Costa had barely scrapped by in 2010 against a little-known Republican foe, so he should have known better than anyone how bad Democratic turnout in the Central Valley gets in midterms. But instead, Costa barely spent any money against another little-known Republican foe, only to win by just 1,334 votes. While Costa should be safer in a presidential cycle he still is taking his re-election for granted, raising just $80,000 in the last quarter. However, Costa's voting record and weak wins may finally be about to catch up with him.
Emily Cahn reports that Democratic Assemblyman Henry Perea was already thinking about challenging Costa, and the congressman's recent votes for the Trade Promotion Authority has only encouraged labor groups to work even harder to court him. Perea tells Roll Call that he hasn't met with anyone about a Costa challenge and refused to say anything else, but he notably did not rule anything out. About 31 percent of CA-16 overlaps with Perea's Assembly seat, so he'd start out with decent name recognition if he got in. However, an upcoming U.S. Supreme Court decision could force California to redraw its congressional districts, and no one's going to make any moves until they know who their would-be constituents are.
Labor sounds pissed enough at Costa that they'll try recruiting someone else if Perea passes. Labor has already spent money against Democratic Rep. Ami Bera as a warning over trade, and they're likely to spend even more in the cheaper Fresno market if they think they have a shot to replace Costa with a better Democrat. However, beating Costa isn't a sure thing. Because of California's top-two primary law, we could see a general election between Costa and a more liberal Democrat, and Republican voters could definitely help put him over the top. Obama has also pledged to help members like Costa who draw primary challengers over the trade deal, and his support could make a real difference. There are a lot of unknowns here, but the prospect of replacing Costa with a stronger and more progressive option is just too good to ignore.