Former Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland
Well, Quinnipiac has their story and they're sticking with it.
Back in April, they gave Democratic ex-Gov. Ted Strickland a hard-to-believe 48-39 lead against Republican incumbent Rob Portman in the Ohio Senate race, and their new survey gives him only a
slightly-smaller 46-40 edge.
Portman's 43-21 favorability score is comparable than Strickland's 49-29 rating, so it's pretty surprising to see him losing, especially with President Obama posting a blech 40-56 job approval rating. However, Portman nukes Cincinnati City Councilor P.G. Sittenfeld 49-24.
Only two other pollsters have surveyed this contest and while they agree that Sittenfeld would badly lose, they're completely at odds when it comes to Strickland vs. Portman. A recent PPP poll gave Portman a small 43-41 edge. However, a mid-June poll from the GOP outfit Vox Populi for the conservative website The Daily Caller painted a very different picture, giving Portman an intimidating 47-37 lead.
It's hard to account for the spread between the three groups, especially since Quinnipiac and PPP are generally reliable pollsters. At this point, the best thing to do is to wait for more data and see if a consensus emerges. However, there's little doubt that both sides will be aggressively targeting Ohio next year. The Buckeye State's seat may make the difference between a Senate majority and a Senate minority, and neither party will take it for granted.