The GOP Gets Serious
I have read a number of diaries recently that shed light on some interesting phenomena that exist in the democratic primary. The GOP may have the more entertaining primary process brewing, what with the clown car filled with bigots, greed-addled nuts that would make daffy duck proud and of course the christian zealots… but WE have a process that is bound to filled with intrigue.
Already, we have jockeying in the blogosphere, and here at Kos between the Hillary and Bernie camps. So far, it has not descended to the horrors of 2008 where the Obama and Hillary tribes broke out their E-shivs early and often. But nonetheless, there are diaries and comments that are characterized by implication. Come along with Invisible woman and I, Mr. Fantastic to examine one of the more compelling implications!
There are a number of diaries and comments where the given writer opines that once the Sanders campaign fails, as it most certainly will…that Bernie's infrastructure will also certainly accommodate the Hillary convoy all the way to the White House; that HRC will benefit mightily from Senator Sanders' established progressive organization.
IF…IF these diarists/commenters are correct about the endgame, I certainly hope that enough goodwill will still exist between HRC's loyalists and Bernie's ever-expanding and newly diverse flock that will allow for such. But let's examine two particular thoughts that are at the core of the "Hillary-inherits-Bernie's-voters-and-turf-after-his-inevitable-loss" presumption, shall we? To wit:
1) Endgame:
The diarist and the more robust Hillary folk may well be underestimating what is really going on here. Hillary has done a marvelous job as a politician in creating her new Presidential convoy. She has a well-oiled and maintained fleet of vehicles and fuel (media and money), not to mention a great map (Obama's playbook..the one that bested two gifted politicians …she in 08 and Romney in 12). Those are impressive tools, I gotta admit; 'specially if it were 2008 or 2012. And there, constant reader, is the proverbial fly in the soup. It's neither the past, nor is her opponent a "politician".
2008 and 2012 may as well be 1808 and 1812, given the sheer amount of change (both obvious and subtle) that has occurred in the last 7 years; change which have shifted the winds considerably in favor of a new and truly progressive movement. All around us, we see it: Marriage equality is accepted by a majority of the country, changes in attitudes towards social programs (ACA is pretty popular conceptually for example), marijuana legalization, acceptance of climate change, and many more… all indicate that progressive ideals are being embraced by the public whether they realize it or not. But not only have the social constructs which provide context and insight to a people, the people themselves have changed.
I believe it was in an article written by Ryan Lizza for the New Yorker right after the 2014 midterm disaster (Thanks, voter apathy!), where he declared that there were two types of democratic voters; those on the on the beer track - blue collar, perhaps poor and getting poorer workin' folk whose sphere of influence is proudly small (someone cue up the early Springsteen catalog!) AND those on the wine track - college educated, intellectually curious professionals who are plugged into a larger world (someone cue up recent Springsteen!). I would argue that there is another, relatively new elixir in the american socio-political beverage menu; those on the water track. But, aside from the metaphorical lack of fermentation, who are these people? Where did they come from?
Lordy, I am Thirsty for Change!
Those on Mr. Fantastic's "water track" are those of us who can no longer afford beer, much less wine; the people who can't find meaningful work courtesy of the jobless recovery, or have just graduated college with debt the size of a 1972 Buick. They may have been a former wine or beer track participant, but their medical bills, climate change-based disaster or some other outside influence that could have been weathered 10-20 years ago… has left them well, thirsty for a new direction. Certainly, the existing working poor of all colors and creeds are on the water track as well.
These people are most open to the sort of progressive movement that Sanders has been calling for. Sanders' outreach to these folks is paying dividends. In his most recent rallies more and more people of color are showing up to listen to him and for my own experience, many people I spoke to in Madison said it was their first political rally. Put THEIR number in with the members of the wine and beer tracks who are increasingly listening to Senator Sanders, and you have a very different potential endgame. The other factor that undermines Hillary's playbook, perhaps most compellingly is her designed/anticipated opponent.
2) Planned Opponent:
Much has been made over how Obama bested Hillary. Frankly, he was the better politician…and yes, he still is. Ask Mittens Romney, no slouch in his own right, binders full of women not withstanding. The truth of the matter is simply this: The playbook anticipates facing another politician and besting them politically. Politicians in the modern, post-Carter age win not so much for their record and standing as public servants (their alleged job, you see), but first and foremost for their skills as a politician (gathering donors, message crafting, polling, remaining consistently malleable; able to change positions with the speed and flexibility of a contortionist working their way through the Kama Sutra).
Senator Sanders represents anathema to Obama's playbook as he is, without a doubt a committed and passionate Public Servant. One who happens to be a shrewd politician, yes. But his history, his record, and most importantly his abject and unflinching commitment to telling the truth makes him very hard to play politics with. Why?
He will not play dirty. Sanders understands full well, citing a time many years ago he went negative and lost, that he undermines his strength as a public servant by being a politician. If he runs negative ad or goes negative on HRC, the water track folk will certainly abandon him. Also, HRC would be foolish to attack HIM. This puts her in a sticky spot. You can bet her pollsters are watching how Claire McKaskell's vapid criticisms of Sanders play with voters… but an all out 2008 style anti-Bernie carpet bombing would do her a disservice as well BECAUSE of Sanders' standing as the resident truth-telling public servant. Rather than looking like "politics as usual", that is politico vs. politico…such an attack will smack of desperation. If it comes, you will know that Hillary's internals are going badly.
The Quote That Those on the "Water Track" Exemplify.
It will indeed be interesting to see how the next few months play out. Do not get me wrong here, dear reader, myself and Invisiblewoman are all-in for Bernie, but to be honest, all things remaining EQUAL, given the shallow nature of the media, the anti-corporate nature of Bernie's campaign along with HRC's pro-corporate bona fides AND of course Hillary's profound money advantage as a function of her standing as arguably the best pure politician in the race (either side)..it is still Hillary's nomination and the Presidency to lose. But this is of course the point.
Things are not equal to what they were when the playbook was written, and of course in the socio-political sense things are growing even MORE UNEQUAL… hence the "water track" voters. I submit that given the changes since 2008/2012 in our society in conjunction with Senator Sanders' own intrinsic gifts and circumstances, any notion that the end of Senator Sanders' campaign is a certitude that will parley Secretary Clinton many boons is… well, premature at best and perhaps flat-out wrong.
No matter what, though… for the love of Pete… let's all remember to play nice and respect one another through the process, OK? There's a lot at stake, as there always is, of course. But hurting each other does little to support your candidate. Meow.
Again ,I want to remind you all that I, Mr. Fantastic and Invisiblewoman will be at the Madison Farmer's Market NEXT Saturday looking for and signing up volunteers, hopefully passing out literature and selling Bernie merch, and drinking copious amounts of coffee. There will likely be a diary afterward!
Much Love.
Don't Destroy the City of Progressive Brotherly Love Everybody!