As I understand it, on July 21, Gov. John Kasich (R-OH) will announce his candidacy for the Presidency. His Super PAC is managed by former Senator John Sununu (R-NH) and Kasich ran once before in 2000 for the nomination, but dropped out early because George W. Bush had taken the air out of the room.
He was the Chair of the Budget Committee in the House that allegedly created a balanced federal budget in the late 1990s. I say allegedly because the GAO numbers suggest otherwise, but the myth is that there was a surplus in the late 1990s and the Clintons will not dispute that as a fact.
Given the fact that Sununu's father was Bush 41's Chief of Staff, it would appear likely that Kasich is the powers that be in the Republican Party's alternative to Bush.
As Jeb has stumbled despite significant fundraising by his Super PAC, I would not be surprised that Kasich is the nominee.
Why this should worry you is obvious -he is the two term Governor of Ohio.
What is more, he turned an $8 billion deficit in Ohio into a $2 billion surplus and the state has actually been one of the few Republican lead states to create jobs.
He is a moderate and expanded Medicaid and adopted Common Core.
You are thinking there is no way that he will be the Republican nominee and you are wrong.
Mitt Romney and John McCain were both moderates. The Republicans do a very good job of selecting the most presentable candidate to be their standard bearer.
Romney had a problem of inserting his foot in his mouth and McCain had two problems 1) running in a year the economy imploded while his party held the White House, and 2) having the most inept VP vetting team in history.
Kasich presently has a big advantage, the right track/track polling numbers suggest the vast majority believe we are on the wrong track. This is almost never good for the party in the White House during the next election cycle because people blame the President and not the Congress. Add to that the fact that China's economy is in trouble, the EU is still trying to sort out the problems with Greece, and the fact that we had negative GDP growth earlier this year and the economic picture looks unlikely to improve between now and Election Day which bodes badly for the party.
Kasich is less likely to make the bonehead mistakes that McCain or Romney made and he doesn't have the Romney fortune to explain in a time when plutocracy is an issue. He did however work for Lehman Brothers, and does have a questionable economic development plan for Ohio with a private corporation running the plan.
Despite potentially exploitable weaknesses, Kasich's strengths should worry you.
He has Washington experience. He has executive experience as a Governor. He has a record to run on and looks like an adult compared to the rest of the Republican also rans.
Now let's assume Marco Rubio doesn't say anything too crazy and he is the VP nominee of a Presidential candidate who favors a path to citizenship for undocumented workers as Kasich does, and a moderate who expanded Medicaid as Kasich did. This could help sway Hispanic votes towards the Republicans.
Are you worried yet?
According to CNN exit polls in 2014 Kasich got 26% of the African Americsn vote in Ohio. Are you worried yet?
How does one beat a John Kasich?
You must expand the tent.
In 2008 Obama expanded the tent by bringing in a lot more young people and a lot more African American voters. In 2012, he lost 7 million voters and the Republicans gained 1.5 million voters.
Republicans made significant gains with working class white males in 2012, and whites who had voted for Obama in 2008 stayed home, but so by estimates did 1.5 million African American voters. If the first black President couldn't turn out African American voters for his re-election, what chance do old white people have of turning them out?
In addition to the loss of African American voters, a sharp drop off in Millenial and Gen X voting in the MidTerm Elections played a significant roll in the rise of the Tea Party.
With more than 60% of 18-29 year olds and a high percentage of Gen X also voting for Obama, the loss of young voters presents a significant challenge for the party going forward. Voters between ages 18-49 made up more than 50% of the voters in 2008, in the mid terms their numbers fell to 30%.
The drop off of young voters and African Americans is a problem for the party unless the nominee can excite those two constituencies and potentially expand the base in other age and demographic cohorts as well.
What I'm telling you right now is that the Democratic Party needs stronger candidates.