How good are the RCP primary poll aggregation algorithms? The national poll shows Hillary Clinton in a free fall since the start of the month. Down from 63.0 to 56.8 Sanders is climbing steadily while Biden continues to be in a narrow range.
Details below.
The poll I am referring to is: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/...
Here are the numbers:
July 01: HRC - 63.0 Sanders - 12.7 Biden - 13.5
July 15: HRC - 56.8 Sanders - 16.3 Biden - 11.3
While this looks good for those in the Democratic wing of the Democratic Party, I wonder how good RCP is, and has been, as a poll aggregator. In the past, during the general elections or even during the primaries, I have used Nate Silver's 538 and Sam Wang's Princeton site for the poll info. But this time, it is way too early in the season. 538 has not started yet and Sam Wang hasn't begun either. RCP seems to be one of the few that are out there.
On the one hand, the poll trajectory is entirely believable. More and more primary voters are seeing how inauthentic Hillary Clinton is, with her vague and obfuscatory statements on practically any issue, her robotic rehearsed lines and her fake, plastic smiles. Especially when contrasted against a genuine and authentic opponent like Sanders. But on the other hand, it almost seems like a case of too good to be true!