Interactive map of the Virginia state Senate
This fall, both parties will be working hard to take control of the Virginia state Senate. The GOP holds a bare 21-19 majority and Team Blue only needs to net one seat to take control because Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam would break ties for the Democrats. But both parties have several targets, and Democrats have very little room for error.
Gov. Terry McAuliffe is focusing on flipping the chamber, but it's not going to be easy. While Obama won 21 of the 40 Senate seats, Democratic turnout usually falls disproportionately in off-years, and Republicans will be making the most of their advantage. While the GOP is expected to hold the House of Delegates without any trouble, a Democratic state Senate would give McAuliffe and his allies more influence and a better negotiating position in the state government. Old Dominion Democrats also believe that this year's state Senate races will help them improve the party's infrastructure for the 2016 presidential contest.
Mid-year campaign finance reports are in, giving us some insights into how the battle for several key Senate seats is going. At this point in the cycle money gives us a good idea of which campaigns are becoming competitive and which ones are going to be left by the wayside, though there's always the potential for surprises. We've included Stephen Wolf's interactive map of the state Senate above: You can find the rest of his maps here. The two light red seats are districts that Obama carried but are held by a GOP (there are no Romney seats in Democratic hands anymore).
Unsurprisingly, both of those light red seats are top Democratic targets. The open Richmond-area SD-10, which Obama carried 50-48 but McAuliffe took 47-42 the next year, may be the commonwealth's most important race, and both candidates will have plenty of money. Democratic Chesterfield County Supervisor Dan Gecker outraised Richmond School Board member Glen Sturtevant over the last month, but the June primary drained some of Gecker's resources. The Republican holds a $96,000 to $72,000 cash on hand advantage, though both candidates will be hauling in a whole lot more before too long.
Head below the fold for more on both parties' targets.
Frank Wagner is the only Republican state senator seeking re-election in an Obama seat. The president took the Hampton Roads SD-07 by 327 votes (49.5-49.1) while McAuliffe and Democratic Sen. Mark Warner narrowly lost it in 2013 and 2014 respectively. Team Blue has landed Cox Communications executive Gary McCollum, who has been raising real money. Wagner still holds a $513,000 to $403,000 cash on hand edge, and this may be the most expensive contest in the commonwealth.
Democrats are also hoping to unseat Republican state Sen. Dick Black in Northern Virginia's SD-13. Romney carried this district 51-48 and 2013 GOP gubernatorial nominee Ken Cuccinelli took it by a similar margin, and Ed Gillespie won SD-10 by a hefty 54-44 last year, so this isn't going to be easy. But Black has a well-earned reputation for extremism: Among other things, he argued that a husband could never be convicted of raping his wife "when they're living together, sleeping in the same bed, she's in a nightie, and so forth." Pediatrician Jill McCabe is challenging Black and she easily raised Black over the last month. But Black still holds a $252,000 to $191,000 cash edge, and he won 57-43 in 2011 against another Democrat who tried to make this race a referendum on Black's views.
Democrats have a few other reach targets, but it's hard to feel optimistic about them. Democrats do have a well-funded candidate, Dave Belote, running against Republican Del. Bill DeSteph in Virginia Beach's open SD-08. Belote currently leads DeSteph in cash $72,000 to $47,000, but this is still a tough seat. Romney carried this district 53-46 (though Cuccinelli took it by a more modest 49-44), so Belote would need a lot to go right to prevail here. (Update: This paragraph originally said that incumbent Jeff McWaters was running for re-election.)
Freshman Republican Bryce Reeves only narrowly won in 2011, and Romney barely carried SD-17. But Cuccinelli and especially Gillespie both did better in this central Virginia seat, and Democratic Albemarle County School Board Chairman Ned Gallaway hasn't been raising much cash: Via the Virginia Public Access Project, Reeves holds a massive $534,000 to $29,000 financial edge. SD-20's Bill Stanley is another Republican who narrowly won in 2011, but Romney and Gillespie both took his southern Virginia seat by a stronger 51-47, and Cuccinelli won it 54-40. Stanley leads former Martinsville Mayor Kim Adkins $104,000 to $50,000, and the Republican nature of his seat gives him a good shot.
Republicans have two major targets next year. Obama carried the open SD-29 64-35 and both McAuliffe and Warner also took it by double digits. But this is an area where Democrats are worried about off-year turnout, and Republicans have a strong candidate in Manassas Mayor Hal Parrish. Parrish leads Democrat Jeremy McPike $213,000 to $42,000 in cash on hand, though McPike should make up some ground now that he doesn't need to spend on his competitive primary.
Team Red also is going after state Sen. John Edwards in SD-21. This is the bluest part of southwest Virginia and all three major statewide Democrats took it by at least 8 points. However, a prominent former Democrat, Roanoke Commonwealth’s Attorney Don Caldwell, is running as an independent. Caldwell doesn't have much money but Edwards actually narrowly trails GOP physician Nancy Dye $118,000 to $117,000 in cash.
The GOP has a few other targets in mind. SD-06's Lynwood Lewis only won his 2014 special election by 11 votes in what's usually a Democratic leaning seat. Lewis leads Republican Richard Ottinger in cash $174,000 to $49,000 but Team Blue can't take this Norfolk-area seat for granted. The GOP made some noises about putting the open SD-36 in play in Northern Virginia, but the Republican hasn't brought in much.
Right now, it looks like each party will have two major seats to defend. The GOP needs to hold SD-07 and SD-10, while the Democrats need SD-21 and SD-29. The GOP will make a play for Lewis in SD-07 and Democrats are hoping they can beat Black in SD-13 and each side has a few reach targets, but this quartet will likely decide the majority. It's easy to see each side's path to a majority and the GOP probably has the edge due to off-year turnout, but we're going to see some expensive and hard-fought races first.