Welcome to Sin City, where the dice are hot, the women are hotter, and the temperature is just freakin' ridiculous. Nevada is not normally considered, even passingly, as a "swing state", not enough electoral votes, it just doesn't get more than passing coverage on election night. But this year is different, if not on the Presidential front. The 2016 Republican Senate map for retention is the payback for the 2014 Democratic Senate map. It's brutal. And with Republican popularity rivaling the Ebola virus for the cellar spot in polling, the Democrats are licking their chops. Especially with loose cannons like Ron Johnson (R-WI) and Mark Kirk (R-IL), the Republicans are doing their part. But a rare ray of sunshine has presented itself to the Republicans, a pickup chance in NV with Senator Harry Reid's retirement. Follow me below the orange sand dune for an early report on the principals.
This is already shaping up to be a good old fashioned two way race. And on the Democratic side, it already appears settled. The candidate will be Catherine Cortez Masto. She served two terms as the state Attorney General, followed by a stint as the Chancellor of higher education. She has a strong support base, statewide name recognition, and good campaign and fundraising skills. Harry Reid has already given her public benediction, and she is widely regarded as the party's top tier choice, she'll get full support. Popular Democratic congresswoman Dina Titus from Las Vegas vaguely flirted with the idea early on, but after seeing the way the wind was blowing decided to defend her safe congressional seat instead. I haven't heard even a whisper of anyone else on the Democratic side even considering a run at her,.
Things are a little muddier on the Republican side. When the Reid vacancy was announced, the Republican elite, both state and national did everything short of set themselves on fire in his waiting room to get current Governor Brian Sandoval to run for the spot. He is a dream candidate, well spoken, considered one of the most popular Governors in the country, a moderate for a Republican, having been only the 2nd GOP Governor in the country to accept the Medicaid expansion for his state, a good campaigner and a great fundraiser who trounced Harry Reid's son Rory 58-35 in 2010 to get his first term. Just one problem. Sandoval didn't want the job. He likes being Governor just fine, he's good at it, and he had no taste for a pier 9 brawl just to move to Washington.
The field thins some after that. The next choice is 3rd term Congressman Dr. Joe Heck, from Henderson. He was swept into congress in the pick-a-fool tea party wave of 2010 and has been re-elected twice. He isn't revered in his district, but for the most part he keeps his head down, responds well to constituents, doesn't say anything overtly stupid and has been rewarded with comfortable if not impressive re-election results.
Heck comes with a little baggage. He is still considered to be a "tea party guy", and Nevadans can be a little prickly when it comes to demagoguery and extremism. His bigger problem is statewide name recognition. Catherine Masto has already won twice on a statewide ballot, and garnered lots of positive press in her tenure as Attorney General. Joe Heck is by profession a brigadier general and army surgeon, he has never run for anything but his district. He is going to have to do something to get his name in circulation, either inflammatory statements that get statewide press or a big splash in the House of Representatives of some kind that garners widespread coverage. Another problem for Heck is the state Republican party itself. In the heavily populated southern part of Nevada, Clark County, which encompasses Las Vegas and the suburbs, their operation on the ground is a train wreck, while the Democrats have an ironclad operation there. Heck might be better served by simply asking the Republicans to shoot him the cash to simply expand his own already proven successful ground game. There are a couple of other names out there on the Republican side floating the possibility of a primary challenge to Heck, but none of them have either the name recognition nor the deep pockets and organization to seriously challenge Heck. Unless a PAC or some other outside group sticks their noses in with a couple of mil, it should be Heck vs Cortez Masto.
Make no mistake. This is going to be expensive, and it's going to be bloody. The Republicans are going to go all in on this one, they can't afford to let a pick up open seat opportunity pass them by if they want to maintain control of the Senate, not with a terrible campaign map, a weak Presidential field, and the weak links they already have in traditionally "blue states". The Democrats are going to be just as voracious to keep the seat in their control, if for nothing more than to keep the Reid legacy going. Both Heck and Cortez Masto are experienced politicians, intelligent and well spoken, the debates should be lively and interesting, with plenty of feisty exchanges.
My very preliminary estimate? Moderate lean Democratic. Cortez Masto's Hispanic heritage in a heavily Hispanic populated state, her name recognition, her success as Attorney General all play in her favor. The Democratic juggernaut will get out the votes in Clark and surrounding counties in huge numbers. Heck's lack of statewide name recognition means he will have to spend a lot of time in northern and northwest NV if he has any hopes of offsetting Masto's huge advantage in the south. But then again, this is Vegas, and there's nothing we love more than a good crapshoot.
I'll follow up on this diary periodically as events occur, but in all honesty I believe it will be quiet for quite a while yet. With both candidates apparently comfortable locks, why start lobbing shells and blowing cash this far out? Keep those hole cards for when it counts.