So this is one of my first diaries here, and it's my first redistricting one. I found Dave's Redistricting App, and I'm practically glued to it.
Republicans have a massive majority in the House, despite Democrats winning the House popular vote by quite a lot. Why? Gerrymandering. Republicans, fresh off the 2010 wave, drew aggressive gerrymanders in many states---so this series is my answer to that (other DK users have answers to it, too---they're all pretty interesting.) This diary is going to be my redistricting plans for three small New England states that weren't gerrymandered: New Hampshire, Maine, and Rhode Island. After all, I have to start somewhere.
Just a note: my districts aren't numbered to match the old ones, so, if a district has a clear incumbent Rep./an obvious predecessor, I'll say so.
NEW HAMPSHIRE
New Hampshire's new districts
Close-up of NH-02
NH-01
Obama-McCain: 57-42
Total population: 660,782
Total VAP: 520,836
Race (VAP): 96% white, 1% Asian, 1% Hisp., 1% Other, <1% Af-Am., <1% Nat.
Incumbent: Ann McLane Kuster (D)
Predecessor district: NH-02
Based in: Concord
Includes: Concord, Keene, Hanover, Claremont, Lebanon, northern NH
This district should be a little easier to hold than NH-02. That said, it's New Hampshire, so it's not easy to hold anyway. Overwhelmingly white. Rep. Kuster survived the 2014 tsunami, so she should be safe here. Likely D with her, Lean D without her.
NH-02
Obama-McCain: 52-47
Total population: 655,688
Total VAP: 508,400
Race (VAP): 91% white, 3% Hisp., 3% Asian, 1% Af-Am., 1% Other, <1% Nat.
Incumbent: Frank Guinta (R)
Predecessor district: NH-01
Based in: Manchester, Nashua
Includes: Manchester, Nashua, Seacoast
This district is a true tossup at best, and it could be argued that it leans a little Republican. For all intents and purposes, though, it's just a swing district that likes to vote its incumbents out of office. Overwhelmingly white. Lean D with Guinta, because scandal, Tossup without him, since he might lose his primary or retire.
MAINE
Maine's new districts
Close-up of ME-02
ME-01
Obama-McCain: 55-43
Total population: 664,229
Total VAP: 530,345
Race (VAP): 95% white, 1% other, 1% Hisp., 1% Nat., <1% Asian, <1% Af-Am.
Incumbent: Bruce Poliquin (R), Chellie Pingree (D)
Predecessor district: ME-02
Based in: Bangor, Augusta, Presque Isle
Includes: All of Maine except for the Portland-dominated southwestern corner
This district is swingy, but leans towards us. Overwhelmingly white, very rural. Unfortunately, Rep. Chellie Pingree gets drawn into this district, meaning she either has to knock out an incumbent (Poliquin) in a district that isn't hers (in all fairness, she could probably do that), move to the new 2nd district, or wait for a statewide race. Tossup if Poliquin stays and Pingree goes, Lean D if anything else happens.
ME-02
Obama-McCain: 61-38
Total population: 664,132
Total VAP: 523,483
Race (VAP): 95% white, 1% Asian, 1% Af-Am., 1% Hisp., 1% Other, <1% Nat.
Incumbent: None
Predecessor district: ME-01
Based in: Portland
Includes: Portland metro area & the rest of southwestern Maine
This district is ours. We either get a new incumbent or we keep Pingree. Overwhelmingly white, Safe D no matter what.
RHODE ISLAND
Rhode Island's new districts
RI-01
Obama-McCain: 59-39
Total population: 519,689
Total VAP: 412,082
Race (VAP): 92% white, 3% Hisp., 2% Asian, 2% Af-Am., 1% other, <1% Nat.
Incumbent: James Langevin (D)
Predecessor district: RI-02
Based in: Warwick, Bristol, Newport, Woonsocket
Includes: all of southern RI, Warwick, West Warwick, western Providence County, Woonsocket
I have no idea why Rhode Island's current districts (RI-01 and RI-02) are so contorted, and it makes no sense to split up the city of Providence, considering it fits into one district. It wasn't incumbent protection/gerrymandering or the VRA. If anyone knows why Rhode Island did that, please tell me.
Anyway, the new RI-01 includes most of the state outside Providence, from Block Island to the northern border with Massachusetts. Overwhelmingly white. Safe D.
RI-02
Obama-McCain: 68-30
Total population: 532,878
Total VAP: 416,529
Race (VAP): 68% white, 18% Hisp., 7% Af-Am., 4% Asian, 3% other, <1% Nat.
Incumbent: David Cicilline (D)
Predecessor district: RI-01
Based in: Providence, Cranston
Includes: Providence, Cranston, Pawtucket, some Providence suburbs
Majority white, but not overwhelmingly so. The Democratic primary electorate might be close to majority-minority. Safe D.
And I'm done for today. Next up is Massachusetts, which gets its own diary because it's a bigger state. Thanks for reading!