Last night's GOP debate was chock full of comedic material, but in terms of the race itself, here's my top five takeaways:
1) Trump as independent
This revelation came on the first question and is perhaps the most consequential piece of news coming out of the debate: Donald Trump refused to pledge that he wouldn't run as an independent.
2) Jeb! failed to excite, repeatedly
Clearly the most exciting thing about Jeb! is the exclamation point behind his name. That's it. Though expectations were high that he would distinguish himself as the serious candidate on stage, he was decidedly ho-hum and couldn't even get the crowd excited about repealing Obamacare. Jeb! appears to be as daft as his brother but without the charisma.
3) Ohio Gov. John Kasich made an impression
It's hard to know whether John Kasich's relatively reasonable and informed answers will resonate with the GOP base, but he completely upstaged Jeb! Here he is on a gotcha question about accepting a Medicaid expansion for Ohio (GOP apostasy!):
I had an opportunity to bring resources back to Ohio to do what? To treat the mentally ill. Ten thousand of them sit in our prisons. It costs $22,500 a year to keep them in prison. I’d rather get them their medication so they could lead a decent life. Secondly, we are rehabbing the drug-addicted. Eighty percent of the people in our prisons have addictions or problems. We now treat them in the prisons, release them in the community and the recidivism rate is 10 percent and everybody across this country knows that the tsunami of drugs is — is threatening their very families. So we’re treating them and getting them on their feet. And, finally, the working poor, instead of them having come into the emergency rooms where it costs more, where they’re sicker and we end up paying, we brought a program in here to make sure that people could get on their feet. And do you know what? Everybody has a right to their God-given purpose. And finally, our Medicaid is growing at one of the lowest rates in the country.
It's sure not the full Kasich story. Nonetheless, with responses like that—informed yet impassioned enough to avoid excessive wonkiness—and his
nuanced answer on same-sex marriage (which he doesn't support), he is perhaps the GOP candidate that's the scariest in a potential match up against Hillary Clinton. He could actually go toe-to-toe with her on substance without boring the Jeb! out of people.
4) Scott Walker's "no exceptions" baggage
Scott Walker was good last night and entirely on script. Though his ability to handle answers off the cuff is dubious, if he did get the GOP nod, his "no exceptions" abortion answer last night is a general election disqualifier. Bottom line, even if a woman's life is in danger, he opposes abortion in every instance. There's nothing mainstream about that.
5) Carly Fiorina for VP?
Pundits seem to agree that Carly Fiorina "shot the lights out" last night during the GOP Jr. debate. That doesn't necessarily mean she did, but this post-debate interview she did with Chris Matthews suggests that she could be deployed as an attack dog against Hillary Clinton. Fiorina's wrong on substance, of course, but she might be distinguishing herself as a GOP VP contender, especially if Hillary Clinton is the Democratic nominee. If Bernie's the nominee, that's an entirely different race.