Taylor Bennett
Leading Off:
• GA State House: Georgia's 80th State House District ought to be safely Republican. Mitt Romney carried it by a 56-43 margin, and in a special election, when Democratic turnout almost always suffers, the GOP shouldn't have had to flex a muscle to keep this seat in their hands.
But on Tuesday night, Democrat Taylor Bennett not only won, he crushed his Republican opponent, former Brookhaven Mayor Max Davis, by a 55-45 spread—despite getting outspent 2-to-1. And not only that, Bennett rode to victory by explicitly running on his opposition to a proposed "religious freedom restoration act," citing his mother and sister, both of whom are gay.
A big part of Bennett's victory was due to the district: Though it's heavily Republican, it's located in Atlanta's wealthy northern suburbs, the kind of place where anti-gay attitudes are very much out of fashion. In fact, the lawmaker that Bennett will succeed, Mike Jacobs, actually torpedoed the last version of RFRA that went before the legislature by amending the bill to include an anti-discrimination clause—and Jacobs is a Republican. (He was later appointed to a judgeship, prompting this special election.)
RFRA wasn't the whole story: Bennett, an employment lawyer, also enjoyed some minor celebrity status as a former star quarterback at Georgia Tech. And then there was the matter of sexual harassment allegations against Davis, who was accused of "spraying a women's buttocks with an aerosol can filled with air freshener," then allegedly threatening to fire that same woman (a city employee).
Bennett's win isn't only a victory for gay rights. Georgia Democrats are still deep in the minority in the state legislature, but now they have 61 seats in the 180-member state House, which means that Republicans can no longer achieve super-majorities on their own. As a result, the GOP should have a much harder time advancing any amendments to the state constitution.
Bennett will immediately have a huge target on his back, as he just became the only Democrat to represent a Romney seat in the entire state of Georgia, but for now, he and his supporters get to celebrate a big—and important—accomplishment.
Senate:
• MO-Sen: One of the greatest acts of political ratfucking came in 2012, when Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill ran a series of ads that successfully boosted Rep. Todd Akin in Missouri's GOP primary, powering him to an unexpected victory. Akin, of course, then went on to claim that "the female body has ways to try to shut that whole thing down" in the event of a "legitimate rape"—remarks that led to his crushing 16-point defeat that fall.
At the time, McCaskill's motives were transparent, though some of her supporters still react angrily whenever her efforts to help Akin get brought up, claiming she'd never have done anything so underhanded, and in any event, even if she did, Democrats still shouldn't talk about it. McCaskill, however, disagrees, because she just gleefully confirmed the entire saga in an excerpt from her new memoir published by Politico. It's worth reading the entire thing in full, because it fills in the complete backstory not just on what McCaskill and her team were trying to accomplish but how exactly they went about it.
It also adds some heretofore unknown details about McCaskill sharing her own polling of the Republican primary "in broad generalities" with Akin himself, in order to encourage him to keep running an ad featuring Mike Huckabee that was a big positive for Akin. (Akin had taken the spot off the air because he couldn't afford his own polls.) Akin listened, and he went on to beat his nearest opponent by 6 points. The rest is, of course, history. McCaskill not only saved her own political neck, but she provided a great lesson for fellow Democrats in how fight bare-knuckled—and win.
• NC-Sen: In a newly released 16-word statement, former Democratic Rep. Heath Shuler, who's reportedly considering a run for Senate, did not rule out the idea. Said Shuler: "I am enjoying my work at Duke Energy, a great company, and that is my focus."
• NH-Sen: Republican groups have dropped a lot of money on ads trying to discourage Democratic Gov. Maggie Hassan from running for Senate, and now the Senate Majority PAC is firing back. The pro-Democratic group is spending $250,000 to air an ad that hits on pretty much exactly this point: Says the narrator, "It's 15 months before the election and the out-of-state oil billionaire Koch Brothers have already spent $1.2 million dollars here in New Hampshire to keep Kelly Ayotte in the Senate." The spot goes on to accuse Ayotte of supporting tax breaks for oil companies to benefit the likes of the Kochs.
Gubernatorial:
• LA-Gov: Burl Cain, the warden of the Louisiana State Penitentiary at Angola, is still toying with a run for governor, even if the local press is insisting otherwise. Cain, a Republican whose name first sprang up all the way back in December when a random Facebook page started encouraging him to run, said Wednesday that he's "still looking at" a bid. Somehow, in the very same paragraph that relayed this quote, one reporter concluded this means he's "quelling rumors" about his interest! While Cain is unlikely to run at this late date, what he did there is the exact opposite of quelling rumors.
House:
• CO-06, FL-26: EMILY's List just issued two endorsements in blue-leaning seats that Democrats really, really need to pick up if they're to have any shot of reclaiming a majority in the House. One is in Colorado's 6th, where they're backing state Sen. Morgan Carroll against GOP Rep. Mike Coffman; the other is in Florida's 26th, where businesswoman Annette Taddeo is trying to unseat freshman Republican Rep. Carlos Curbelo.
Both candidates may face primaries. Wealthy physician Perry Haney filed to run in CO-06 a while back, but he hasn't made any kind of formal announcement; meanwhile, ex-Rep. Joe Garcia recently refused to rule out a rematch in FL-26. So EMILY's involvement in both races might deter these men from running.
• FL-05: While Rep. Corrine Brown is busy with futile redistricting challenges (see our FL Redistricting item below), former state Sen. Al Lawson says he's thinking about challenging her in the Democratic primary next year. Lawson ran for the current 2nd District in 2012 and performed surprisingly well, losing to then-Rep. Republican Steve Southerland by just 5 points. He also ran against Alan Boyd in the Democratic primary in 2010 and came within 3 points of unseating the Blue Dog incumbent.
The 5th will almost certainly be redrawn to include Lawson's base of Tallahassee, something Brown is incredibly bitter about. And if she plans on running in the revised district, she certainly didn't start off her outreach efforts to her new constituents very well. "Jacksonville, Florida," declared Brown of her hometown, "has nothing in common with North Florida." It's reminiscent of when former Ohio Rep. Dennis Kucinich insulted the city of Toledo after his Cleveland-based district got mashed up with Rep. Marcy Kaptur's Toledo turf. Kaptur absolutely walloped Kucinich; if Brown keeps it up, she'll be cruising for a similar bruising.
• FL-18: With the entry of farm owner Rick Roth into the race, it'd be quicker just to name the Republicans who are not running for Florida's open 18th Congressional District at this point. Roth seems fairly well-connected in the state's agribusiness committee, having served as vice president of the Florida Farm Bureau. But he'll have a lot of work ahead of him harvesting votes in what is now a nine-candidate GOP field.
• IA-03: Democrats don't usually breathe a sigh of relief when a candidate from their own party declines a bid for higher office, but in this case, they probably are. State Sen. Matt McCoy had talked been considering a run against GOP Rep. David Young but on Wednesday he said he'd stay put in the legislature.
McCoy had a number of things in his record that made Democrats nervous about him: He was tried for attempted extortion by federal prosecutors in 2007, though he was acquitted by a jury; he paid a fine to the state ethics commission in 2008 for making an illegal campaign contribution; and he had a poor attendance record as a state lawmaker. In response to concerns about him, McCoy said one reason the DCCC was hostile to him is because he is gay.
Still, Democrats very badly need someone to run here. So far, only businessman Desmund Adams is running, thought a few more prominent names are still circulating. They include ex-Gov. Chet Culver, 2014 IA-04 nominee Jim Mowrer, and U.S Attorney Nick Klinefeldt.
• MI-06: Political science professor Paul Clements, a Democrat who unsuccessfully challenged GOP Rep. Fred Upton last year, says he'll try again in 2016. Last year, Upton prevailed by a 56-40 margin, and he'll still be very difficult to beat this time. But Mitt Romney only carried this district by a 50-49 spread, so Democrats in theory would have a shot if Upton, who's been in the House since 1987, were to retire. However, a spokesman said earlier this year that Upton is "100 percent running for re-election."
• NC-09: On Tuesday, Republican Rep. Robert Pittenger acknowledged that his family's real estate company, Pittenger Land Investments, is the target of an FBI investigation, though he claims he has no idea what it's about, and the bureau isn't explaining, either. While Pittenger's district is seemingly uncompetitive—it went for Romney 56-43—he won his first election in 2012 with just 52 percent of the vote. So if there's something to this inquiry, he could find himself in electoral as well as legal jeopardy.
• NH-01: Even though she just filed paperwork with the FEC, Democratic ex-Rep. Carol Shea-Porter is still refusing to say whether she'll make a second comeback bid. In the meantime, other New Hampshire Democrats have no choice but to wait on her decision, and one top alternative says he's likely to defer if CSP makes a go of it. Chris Pappas, who serves on the state's Executive Council, said, "One can make the case that Carol was wronged in a couple of elections and she deserves a shot to take the seat back." Pappas is referring to the campaign finance violations that GOP Rep. Frank Guinta was found guilty of a few months ago; Guinta beat Shea-Porter both in 2010 and 2014 (she took the middle match in 2012).
• NY-13: Democratic state Sen. Bill Perkins, who recently expressed interest in a bid to succeed retiring Rep. Charlie Rangel, has now filed paperwork with the FEC. As is so often the case in these situations, he hasn't made any formal announcement. Perkins would join a crowded Democratic field in this safely blue district if he does indeed get in.
Other Races:
• Salt Lake City Mayor: Ralph Becker, the two-term mayor of Salt Lake City, Utah, advanced from Tuesday's five-candidate primary to the November general election, but he's in dire shape. That's because Becker finished with only 31 percent of the vote, 15 points behind former state Rep. Jackie Biskupski's 46 percent share. The mayoralty is a non-partisan position, but both Becker and Biskupski are Democrats, and the issues dividing them appear to be decidedly local in nature.
• Special Elections: In addition to Georgia (see our lead item), Johnny Longtorso recaps a trio of races in Pennsylvania:
Pennsylvania HD-174: This was an easy hold for Democrats; Ed Neilson defeated Republican Tim Dailey by a 62-38 margin.
Pennsylvania HD-191: Democrat Joanna McClinton easily won this seat, winning with 71 percent of the vote. Independent Tracey Gordon came in second with 22 percent, while Republican Charles Wilkins was last with 7 percent.
Pennsylvania HD-195: Democrat Donna Bullock defeated Republican Adam Lang by an 85-15 margin.
Grab Bag:
• FL Redistricting: Democratic Rep. Corrine Brown, whose attempt to intervene as a defendant in a redistricting lawsuit got derailed when plaintiffs withdrew their case earlier this week, has now filed her own suit to halt the dismantling of her congressional district, Florida's 5th. Law professor Justin Levitt, a top redistricting expert, calls Brown's case "uphill." That's putting it politely. Brown alleges that the current configuration of the 5th is protected by the Voting Rights Act, but the Florida Supreme Court already considered and rejected this argument when Republicans advanced it.
• Polltopia: You might not think about exit polls much, because they don't tell you what will happen. But in retrospect, they're very important, if you want the actual details on what did happen in an election. Unfortunately, they're getting rarer and rarer (because media organizations don't have the money to pay for thousands of people standing outside polling places anymore), and also harder to do (because the notion of "polling place" itself is getting odder, with the rise of early voting days, easier access to absentee ballots, and, in some states, vote-by-mail).
In light of all this, the Associated Press is trying to figure out how to adapt exit polls to this new future, and National Journal's Scott Bland has some interesting details on what that effort might look like. The AP will be testing new methods in this year's gubernatorial race in Kentucky election as well as next year's presidential election, which might include supplemental online polling from panels, in the same way that exit polls have recently started using supplemental telephone polling.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir and Jeff Singer, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, and Daniel Donner.