I didn't see today's Reuters/Ipsos national poll diaried, so I figured I'd put it out there for everyone.
http://www.ipsos-na.com/...
They've been doing fairly regular polls for each party, so we've got some trend lines to look at.
The headline numbers:
Dems:
Clinton 55
Sanders 18
Biden 11
Cuomo(?)/O'Malley 2
Webb 1
Chafee 0
Republicans:
Trump 21
Bush 12
Carson/Rubio 8
Huckabee 7
Fiorina/Paul 6
Walker/Cruz 5
Christie 3
Perry 2
Kasich/Pataki/Santorum 1
more below the fold
There isn't a great deal to say about the Democratic race. Clinton is up 3 points from their last poll, Sanders is up 1, Biden is down 3. Their last poll showed that a race without Biden benefited Clinton primarily, but I could not find Biden-free numbers in this release.
Either way, they've included Biden in each of their three released polls for the Democratic race, which appears very stable.
Poll 1 (7/25-7/29)
Clinton 58
Sanders 15
Biden 12
Poll 2 (8/1-8/5)
Clinton 52
Sanders 17
Biden 14
Poll 3 (8/8-8/12)
Clinton 58
Sanders 18
Biden 11
It looks like the race is in a holding pattern at this point, and the 538 article about the end of the Sanders surge is backed up by this data. Even if Biden enters the race at this point, Clinton appears dominant, though Biden could certainly make a race for second place as the most credible alternative to Clinton if something happens.
We have one additional poll for the GOP nomination as they did a poll after the GOP debate in addition to their regular weekly poll. For the sake of brevity, we will only look at the top five. Full results are at the link:
Poll 1 (7/25-7/29)
Trump 27
Bush 11
Walker/Rubio 7
Carson 6
Poll 2 (8/1-8/5)
Trump 24
Bush 16
Walker 12
Paul 7
Cruz 6
Poll 3 (8/6-8/10 Post Debate Poll)
Trump 24
Bush 12
Carson/Rubio/Huckabee 8
Walker 7
Poll 4 (8/8-8/12)
Trump 21
Bush 12
Carson/Rubio 8
Huckabee 7
There are a few stories to tell here. Obviously Trump's support has softened a bit, as he's down about 6 points since the end of July, but his lead is still commanding. There is a lot of jostling for position among those not named Trump and Bush, but there is one glaring change. Walker was among the top of the pack in all of these polls until the last one, where he gets just 5% support, and is in SEVENTH place, even behind the gasping for air campaign of Rand Paul.
Compared to what we saw in 2012, Trump's lead is a lot more durable than the parade of not-Romneys we saw take their time in the lead, and Bush is a lot weaker than Romney was.
Bottom line-
In the race for the Democratic nomination we've seen little movement for several weeks now, confirmed by other national and state polls. Clinton remains the prohibitive favorite, Sanders is struggling to break through a ceiling of 20%. Biden's prospects if he decides to run don't look too rosy unless something catastrophic were to happen to the Clinton campaign, in which case he'd likely quickly become the strong frontrunner.
For the Republicans, the picture is less clear, and whatever the blurry picture is of, it is not pretty. Trump's continued dominance is just one muddling factor. Bush's status as the presumed establishment candidate is undermined by the fact that he can't seem to hit 15% in a poll. If we continue to operate under the assumption that Trump must implode at some point, we have no idea how his supporters break after he's gone. The debate seemed to have some serious effects on the horse race, and most of them were the opposite of what the Beltway media expected (besides Fiorina's strong performance). Trump's support did not crater, Kasich did not improve, Rand Paul did not come of as a strong defender of liberty and the American way. The only thing you can really say is that the Republicans find themselves in a mess of their own creation.