Does it sound far-fetched? A public opinion survey from the National Resources Defense Council shows even Republican voters support Obama’s Clean Power Plan and efforts to reduce emissions. With 17 candidates facing off for the nomination, one of these candidates might distinguish him or herself by aggressively addressing climate change. All the other candidates would be dismissing climate change and attacking the EPA rules, creating an opening for a candidate defending the rules and reducing emissions, especially since a majority of Republican voters support policies to reduce carbon emissions.
The polls were conducted in New Hampshire and South Carolina, two states that play a key role in the presidential nomination process. 50 percent of Republican primary voters in New Hampshire support the new EPA Clean Power Plan rules and 42 percent are opposed. 52 percent of Republicans in South Carolina support the rules and 43 percent are opposed. The minority of voters, who are opposed to the rules, will have plenty of candidates to choose from. The competition will be thick in getting those voters' support, but who in the Republican field could the majority of voters support? This seems like a real opportunity for a Republican to break from the pack and win the Republican nomination.
Here is even more public opinion data on Republican support for climate action from the Yale Project on Climate Change Communication. As we see here, there is a vocal minority of Republicans who don’t want to address climate and they will find plenty of candidates to support among those running, but the majority, who like clean air and want to address climate might prefer a candidate who supports their point of view on this urgent issue.
And as for campaign finance, entrepreneur Jay Faison is pledging $175 million to move the GOP on climate change. If there was a Republican presidential campaign that addressed climate, this would be an advantageous place for Jay Faison to invest his pledge, particularly with a majority of Republican voters supporting climate action.
Whether any of these candidates will see this opportunity to break from the pack remains an open question. It is a crowded field and candidates need to distinguish themselves. A successful candidate needs donors and voters and one addressing climate would attract both. A Republican candidate focused on climate would generate a lot of momentum and news coverage as well.