The third installment in my Fair Redistricting series, here's another relatively boring one.
Connecticut was one of the country's few Democratic gerrymanders, managing to squeeze five solidly Democratic seats out of a state that should only have four, plus one swing district. I fixed that, and the result is a clean map that fits the state with a little more clarity and logic. Here we go!
(All work is done on Dave's Redistricting App.)
The close-up map is important for understanding the contours of every district except for the 3rd.
CT-01
Obama-McCain: 53-45
Total population: 711,640
Total VAP: 546,015
Race (VAP): 82% white, 9% Hisp., 5% Af-Am., 2% Asian, 2% other, <1% Nat.
Incumbent: Elizabeth Esty (D)
Predecessor district: CT-05
Based in: Bristol, Waterbury, Danbury, Watertown, Torrington
Includes: Northwestern Connecticut, some outer suburbs of Hartford, Bridgeport, New Haven, and New York City
This district is very white and a true swing district. We have a two-term incumbent in Rep. Esty, so we have the upper hand; nonetheless, we should watch out. Lean D with Esty, Tossup without her.
CT-02
Obama-McCain: 68-31
Total population: 718,863
Total VAP: 556,094
Race (VAP): 65% white, 15% Hisp., 14% Af-Am., 4% Asian, 2% other, <1% Nat.
Incumbent: John Larson (D)
Predecessor district: CT-01
Based in: Hartford
Includes: Hartford, New Britain, the Knowledge Corridor
This district is solidly Democratic and about two-thirds white. Rep. Larson is quite entrenched, and I don't see him going anywhere soon. Safe D no matter what.
CT-03
Obama-McCain: 61-39
Total population: 710,728
Total VAP: 530,984
Race (VAP): 66% white, 17% Hisp., 12% Af-Am., 4% Asian, 1% other, <1% Nat.
Incumbent: Jim Himes (D)
Predecessor district: CT-04
Based in: Bridgeport, Norwalk, Stamford, Fairfield, Greenwich
Includes: Bridgeport, Norwalk, Stamford, Fairfield, Greenwich, other wealthy NYC suburbs
This district is solidly blue. The Democratic primary electorate might be majority-minority or close to it, but Rep. Himes, who is white, is in his fourth term and is only 49. If he doesn't go statewide, this district will continue to be represented by a white man, as Himes hasn't done much to invite a primary challenge (he voted for some Wall Street deregulation, but that's to be expected in this district. He's quite progressive on every other issue, from guns to healthcare to the environment.) No matter what, Safe D.
CT-04
Obama-McCain: 62-37
Total population: 711,368
Total VAP: 558,728
Race (VAP): 74% white, 11% Hisp., 10% Af-Am., 4% Asian, 1% other, <1% Nat.
Incumbent: Rosa DeLauro (D)
Predecessor district: CT-03
Based in: New Haven, Meriden
Includes: New Haven, Meriden, New Haven suburbs
This district is very white and very Democratic. It's Rep. DeLauro's for as long as she wants it. Safe D.
CT-05
Obama-McCain: 60-39
Total population: 714,884
Total VAP: 560,634
Race (VAP): 86% white, 5% Hisp., 4% Af-Am., 3% Asian, 2% other, <1% Nat.
Incumbent: Joe Courtney (D)
Predecessor district: CT-02
Based in: Middletown, Norwich, New London, Willimantic
Includes: Middletown, Norwich, New London, Willimantic, Vernon, the Quiet Corner
This district is a rural district, and is probably the most New England-y of Connecticut's districts (meaning it's dominated by white liberals.) Rep. Courtney is only 62, so he has the potential for at least another five terms if he wants it. Safe D with Courtney, Likely D without him (these types of districts can be willing to vote GOP down ballot.)
Up next: Nebraska, Kansas, and Iowa! Thanks for reading, commenting, and/or recommending.