Recently, we have started to get an increasing number of polls coming out showing Bernie Sanders' support breaking into the 30s. These include both national polls, like the recent CNN and FOX polls, and also state level polls (most notably in New Hampshire, where the race is either about tied or, according to one poll, Sanders has pulled into the lead).
The latest of these polls comes from Arizona, where Sanders has climbed to 34% according to Gravis marketing. Clinton still leads by 22%, of course, 56%-34%. But just a few months ago, nobody would have imagined that Bernie Sanders would be polling as high as 34% in a Red State not known for its progressivism like Arizona.
Predictably, the usual crowd who seem to jump into every pro-Bernie Sanders diary and immediately attack will jump in and attack this poll. That is what happens every time a poll comes out that shows good news for Bernie Sanders. Undoubtedly, they will argue that Gravis Marketing is not the best pollster. OK, I'll grant that, but for now, it's the only recent view we have of the race in Arizona, and it generally confirms other polls that have shown Sanders increasingly moving into the 30s. So the poll just confirms what other polls have recently started to show. Likewise, they'll argue that Clinton still has a substantial lead (22%), which is true. But the real question is what will the race look like a few months from now?
Any one poll can be attacked. But what is clear, and what is much more difficult to attack, is the overall trend. Every time people start claiming that Bernie Sanders has peaked, he just keeps on picking up support, and keeps on pulling closer and closer to Clinton.
Here's the national trend:
And here's
the trend in New Hampshire:
The trend is, we are seeing more and more polls - both nationally and in more and more individual states - in which Bernie Sanders is starting to break into the 30s, and in which
Clinton's lead, which once stood at about 60%, has dropped to more like 20%. Moreover, while Sanders is rising, he is not just picking up undecideds, but Clinton is also falling. So Sanders has the potential (with enough time, and if the trend continues) to eventually pull ahead of Clinton, as he already seems to have done in New Hampshire.
If the trend continues, Sanders will be within striking distance of Clinton by the time actual voting begins.