Don’t let China’s free falling economy and stock market distract you from what’s really important. Reports emerged earlier last week that seemed to confirm a May invitation extended by Djibouti’s President Ismail Omar Guelleh to his Chinese counterparts concerning the construction of a military base on the small African nation’s territory.
However, that invitation wasn’t expected to come at the expense of a small American facility based in Djibouti’s Obock region. Counterpunch, a radical American magazine, published a story that was widely picked up, alleging that the contingent of U.S. soldiers was ordered to vacate the installation, seemingly in preparation for a future Chinese base.
According to Want China Times, “Djibouti reportedly ordered the U.S. to vacate the Obock military base so that it can be turned over the People’s Liberation Army.” It’s unclear at this point whether the reports are accurate, as no official response has yet to be published. China has refused to confirm Guelleh’s previous invitation, while the White House has adopted an equally muted stance.
However, if the story turns out to be true, it will amount to nothing less than a massive shake up of US strategy in the African region. While the Pentagon’s main base on the continent, Camp Lemonnier, is also in Djibouti and has yet to be threatened, Guelleh’s sudden embrace of Beijing’s People Liberation Army (PLA) heralds dark times ahead. Losing access to Camp Lemonnier and its strategic position on the tip of the Eastern ridge of Africa, overlooking the Red Sea and monitoring access to and from the Suez Canal would dent the U.S.’ ability to project power in an area ranging from the Indian Ocean to the Middle East. Accordingto a senior U.S. official, “The trade deal between Djibouti and China has raised serious security concerns with regard to Camp Lemonnier. There are fears that if President Guelleh gets too close to China then he may be tempted to impose restrictions on US access to the base, which would seriously affect the West’s attempts to collect intelligence on Islamic State and al-Qaeda.”
But why are two of the greatest military powers on Earth interested in a minuscule patch of land, considerably smaller than the metro area of New York City? The answer lies in Djibouti’s relative stability as a nation in an otherwise extremely volatile region. From its ports, patrol boats can keep an eye on the traffic flowing through the Gulf of Aden, and the country also serves as a main hub for goods crossing in and out of neighboring landlocked Ethiopia, a country where Chinahas invested billions over the years.
So far, Djibouti has been sailing on calm waters. Its economy has steadily grown, propelled by the massive influx of Chinese credit, substantial Western aid, and the rents paid by Japan and the U.S. for the military bases they maintain there. As a reward for being such a pivotal puzzle piece in the War on Terror, Washington has downplayed the many human rights abuses committed by the Guelleh regime: arbitrary arrests, cracking down on and jailing opposition voices, and rampant use of torture. The Committee to Protect Journalists (CPJ) ratesthe country as one of the most restrictive in the world, while Reporters Without Borders placesthe country in the 170th spot, just under Cuba.
But all that stands to change as Republican voices in Congress have been turning the screws and calling on the State Department to put an end to American collusion so-called “benevolent autocrats” in Africa. Letterswritten by (R-Pa) Tom Marino and (R-Ca) Duncan Hunter “insist on an orderly change of Djibouti’s government” as Guelleh is expected to renege on his promise not to run for a fourth consecutive term in the 2016 elections. Implied in these letters is the fact that the U.S. had turned a blind eye to the regime’s previous abuses, but if Hunter’s comments are followed up on by Defense Secretary Ash Carter, Washington may well pull the plug next year, as retaliation for Djibouti’s growing Chinese adventures.
While the world would definitely be better off if another aging autocrat is chased away from power, it is nevertheless saddening to know that the only way African countries with strategic significance for the West will ever get to experience democracy is only as an act of revenge from an aggrieved United States.