Mapping Campaign Donors: The Methodology
The
Federal Election Commission is the data source. Its individual contribution file includes a zip code for each campaign donor. The cumulative total contribution amount for each zip code shows where each candidate has a concentration of donors.
For mapping in the limited space available on this page the area of a zip code would be too small to see clearly. The FEC data includes each donor's state of residence which could be used instead of zip codes. But the map would give no hint about the details and variations that normally occur within states.
A county map is the best solution. Counties are small but they have a way of acting like their neighbors. Two, or four, or eight clustered together or sprawling out across state lines make visible patterns that usually say something.
After the zip codes are mapped to their home counties, the data must be manipulated to make it speak.
First, the inequality gap between the Clinton campaign contributions and the Sanders campaign contributions must be resolved so that it doesn't distract from anything the data may want to say.
According to the FEC, Clinton's campaign collected $46,443,507 in individual contributions while Sanders' campaign collected $13,612,749. The amounts collected by all of the campaigns, so far, aren't necessarily a predictor of success, at this point. The relative dollar amounts of each campaign may become a determining factor once the primary elections begin. But for now, they aren't making or breaking the candidates.
By multiplying each individual contribution for Sanders by a factor of 3.411765471, the data for his campaign is equalized with Clinton's.
There's also inequality among the counties where donors are located. Los Angeles has a population of 10.1 million. Haakon, South Dakota's population is only 1,847. Naturally, the counties with the most population also have the most donors. To avoid ending up with a variation on a county population map, divide the total contribution amount for each county by the county's population.
Let's see what the maps reveal.
The Key to Reading the Maps
- Sanders' campaign received contributions from donors in 759 counties.
- Clinton's campaign received contributions from donors in 878 counties.
- The counties where there were no donors are unshaded (white.)
- The counties with donors are ranked by per capita contribution amount and separated into four graduated levels shaded correspondingly from dark green to light green.
The 25% of counties with the highest per capita contribution amount are shaded dark green.
The second highest 25% are shaded lighter green.
The third quartile of counties is shaded lighter again.
The counties shaded with the lightest green had the lowest per capital contribution amount.
As expected, Sanders is very strong throughout New England. How about that? He may have an edge in all six states except Rhode Island.
Clinton's campaign is very strong in New York. There, she has an edge over Sanders in the city and on Long island where half the state's voters are located. She also has an advantage in New Jersey and in the string of big cities from Philadelphia, to Baltimore, Washington, DC, and Richmond, VA.
Delaware and West Virginia could go to Sanders.
Farther south, the map shows an edge for Clinton in North and South Carolina, and Georgia. In Florida, a large state with many delegates, Clinton appears to have a huge advantage, In fact, Clinton looks much stronger than Sanders across the South, including Texas. The hot spots for contributions include Austin, Houston, and San Antonio, as well as south Texas where there is a Latino majority.
Arkansas clearly favors Clinton, too. Looking northward, her support is stronger than Sanders' in the cities of St. Louis, Chicago, and Indianapolis.
Sanders could take Michigan, Wisconsin, and Iowa, which would make a good pair for him with New Hampshire, to give his campaign momentum.
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On the West Coast, Sanders has strong support in a narrow strip from Seattle to LA.
Washington and Oregon go in his column.
Clinton also has very strong support in the San Francisco Bay Area, and in LA. She has an edge over Sanders in Orange County, which is California's third largest after LA and San Diego.
Sanders is stronger from Napa northward to Oregon.
With 475 delegates, the state looks like a toss up.
Sanders is also strong in the Mountain West with the exceptions of Wyoming, Nevada, and New Mexico where Clinton looks favored. Like California, Colorado could be a toss-up.
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How does the delegate count shake out?
Clinton's projected total is 2,803 which is 561 more than the 2,242 needed for the nomination. The key to her edge is in the Southeast.