As disruptive as Donald Trump has been for the Republican party, House Speaker John Boehner and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell might just be their bigger problem right now. Apparently, major Republican donors are holding back on committing because they think McConnell is spineless and he and Boehner are not fighting President Obama as hard as they should be. Because it really is still all about the black man in the Oval Office. They say, however, it's about uncontrolled spending. So
the targets, as usual, are the budget which has to be passed by the end of September to avoid a shutdown and a debt ceiling hike likely in November, which has to pass to avoid a global economic catastrophe.
[T]he mixture of an ongoing presidential campaign—which encourages lawmakers to play to their base—and the itching for more spending cuts from conservative groups suggests it won't pass without drama.
"Leadership constantly refers to the need to rein in mandatory spending," said Dan Holler, the communications director for Heritage Action for America. "If they do not use the debt limit as an opportunity to enact those policies—policies that are embedded in their bicameral budget—then they have no credibility on the issue. They should use the debt limit to drive down spending, both in the near term and long term, by demanding real entitlement reform such as Medicaid block grant and Medicare premium support." […]
Republican leadership, likewise, seems content to not even hint at fighting this issue. McConnell's office pointed The Huffington Post to a statement that the leader made before recess: "We are not doing government shutdowns and we are not threatening to default on the national debt." Boehner's office was far more vague, with the official company line being: "The debt ceiling is one of many issues that members will address when they return."
When they do return, however, Boehner (and McConnell) likely will be torn choosing between a deep desire to avoid drama but a primal inclination to not be tarred as "liars." Leadership, the moneyed interests of the party, and most rank-and-file members realize a debt limit breach is economically catastrophic and a standoff is politically so. But believing this and acting on that impulse are two different things. And there is dwindling confidence that they will be able to do both.
So McConnell and Boehner have a big decision looming. They have to figure out whether to face this storm and work with the majority of their members and Democrats to avoid the catastrophes, or whether they cave to Heritage Action and the other big-money, astro-turf groups. For McConnell, it's really his best chance at retaining leadership in 2017—he needs the five or six senators he's got running in swing states to return in order to keep his seat.
Then there's the problem of Ted Cruz who will happily take both McConnell and Boehner down if he can. He's made it his campaign's mission to attack McConnell loudly and regularly. And he's the driver behind the House rebels, egging them on again and again. He's the foreman of the wrecking crew that will prove Republicans are capable of governing.