Presidential candidate Rick Santorum made some very bold statements about the climate science consensus (and the Pope) on Real Time with Bill Maher. Santorum tries a new tactic against the 97% consensus, citing a study that supposedly finds that 57% of climate scientists don't agree with the consensus on human causes of climate change. Maher, true to form, says to Santorum: "I don't know what ass you're pulling that out of, but… you know that is not true."
Fortunately, we do know where he's getting that misinformation. It stems from a specific misreading of a 2012 survey (in a paper published in 2014) about scientists' views on warming. The survey asked scientists how confident they are that more than 50% of warming is man-made, and a problematic figure—which includes those that didn't even respond—arises from that question. The figure that Santorum is pointing to simply states that 97% of scientists agree climate-warming trends over the past century are very likely due to human activities, which uses a different benchmark than the survey question.
To tackle any remaining confusion over the issue, the survey's lead authorBart Verheggen has a post explaining it; ATTP has a quick and easy post, if you're short on time; and Verheggen is interviewed about it in a video at Climate Crocks (along with another interview featuring John Cook, who authored the paper on the 97% consensus).
Here's the bottom line: while Santorum cited a dissent rate of 57%, only 12% of scientists in the Verheggen study were found to disagree with the consensus. Additionally, even the lower figure cannot really be compared to Cook's findings, since the survey included a wide variety of scientists outside the smaller climate science community. It's also important to note that the more expertise the scientists had in climate science, the less likely they were to disagree with the evidence around the human causes of climate change. This serves to reinforcing yet another consensus study.
So despite the frothing at the mouth from Santorum and other deniers, the climate science consensus remains strong.
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