Every two weeks we take the pulse of the Daily Kos community, seeing how you guys stand on the Democratic primary. Here's how the first three months have looked:
8/19 8/5 7/21 7/9 6/23 6/9
Sanders 58 58 57 67 63 69
Clinton 34 35 36 29 31 24
O'Malley 1 1 1 1 1 2
Other 1 2 1 1 0 1
No clue 3 2 3 2 1 2
We've gotten over 7,000 respondents every straw poll, so while this isn't a "scientific poll" under any reasonable definition, the consistency of results truly does suggest that the large sample size is giving us a pretty accurate view of this community's preferences in this race. The consistency of results is almost creepy!
In short, the community is locked into its preferences. But will it stay that way? Polling suggests that Bernie Sanders is making a real move in New Hampshire and tightening in Iowa. Meanwhile, Hillary Clinton has fallen below 50 percent nationally or she hasn't, depending on which poll you want to believe, with Sanders somewhere in the mid 20s but still on an upward trajectory.
So will the Daily Kos community shift along with national trends, or are we locked into our preferences already? I'm still betting on the latter—we are too politically engaged to follow national trends. But hey, there's only one way to find out. So vote!
p.s. I'm pulling Martin O'Malley from the poll. If "other" starts hitting three percent I'll break him out again. But as of now, this is a two-person game.