Louisiana GOP Sen. David Vitter (left)
A few weeks ago, Market Research Insight raised plenty of eyebrows when they unveiled a survey showing presumptive Louisiana gubernatorial frontrunner Sen. David Vitter tied for second place with fellow Republican and Public Service Commissioner Scott Angelle in the Oct. 24 Louisiana jungle primary. The top two vote getters will advance to a November runoff, and it would be utterly shocking if the well-known and well-funded Vitter missed out. And now, the group is doubling down on their surprising findings in a new survey on behalf of GOP lieutenant governor candidate Billy Nungesser.
This poll, which LaPolitic's Jeremy Alford says in his Sept. 1 edition of his Tuesday Tracker was conducted Aug. 24-26, initially found a close three-way fight for the top two spots between Democratic state Rep. John Bel Edwards, Vitter, and Angelle. However, as they often do, MRI redistributes African Americans voters to reflect their usual Democratic preference. The final number puts Edwards in first with 35 percent, and finds Vitter only leading Angelle 22-19 for the second spot; GOP Lt. Gov. Jay Dardenne, who hasn't run any ads yet and whose allies have only just gone on the air, lags in fourth with 11. MRI's July poll, conducted for a different client, also found Edwards safely in first once African Americans were redistributed, and had Vitter and Angelle tied 21 to 21.
GOP pollsters MarplePort and Triumph Campaign were also in the field last month, and they found Edwards and Vitter easily taking the top two runoff spots. But Stu Rothenberg says that Harper Polling surveyed the jungle primary in early August and found Edwards and Vitter at 28 and 26 respectively, but had Angelle in striking distance with 18 percent (Dardenne was at 11). Harper never released the poll and its president refuses to comment on it, which probably confirms that it exists.
It's unclear from clear why Harper didn't release the poll (if they surveyed this contest for a client, that client probably didn't want the results leaking) but if these numbers are accurate, we could see a more exciting race in October than we bargained for. Louisiana is a very conservative state and any Republican would be favored against Edwards. But if Vitter somehow fails to make the runoff, it would have massive repercussions, especially since the jockeying for his Senate seat has already begun. However, Vitter and his allies only recently took to the airwaves while Angelle has been advertising for months, so it's quite possible that Vitter's poll numbers will rebound once his ads get enough eyeballs.
But Vitter's allied super PAC the Fund for Louisiana's Future isn't wasting any time going after Vitter's two GOP rivals in the first negative TV ad of the campaign. Head below the fold for more.
The Fund's ad isn't online yet, but the commercial depicts Angelle and Dardenne as supporters of higher taxes. By contrast, the group's first spot, which began last week, was all positive for Vitter. Maybe the Fund is just being careful, but their negative spot may very well be a sign that they're seeing polls like Harper and MRI's that show Vitter in danger.
For his part, Vitter has unveiled two positive commercials in recent days. His first spot rails against Common Core education standards, with Vitter promoting his efforts to fight it in the Senate and promising to do the same as governor. However, as the Times-Picayune points out, Vitter said as recently as last August that he "strongly supported" Common Core. His second ad has Vitter decrying legislators' perks and pet projects.
Meanwhile, Edwards picked up an endorsement from 2007 candidate Foster Campbell, who never officially ruled out another bid until now. The filing deadline is Sept. 10 and as long as Edwards is the only major Democrat in the race, it'll be hard to stop him from advancing to November. But insiders tell Rothenberg to keep watching wealthy businessman John Georges until filing closes next week. While Georges says he's not planning to run he's refused to actually rule it out, and those insiders think he's more serious than he lets on.
If Georges gets in and splits the Democratic vote in October, it would almost certainly give Angelle or Dardenne a much better shot at making it to a November runoff with Vitter (though if Vitter is actually in danger right now, he'd also have a better chance of advancing), and anything can happen in a Republican vs. Republican contest. For months, this election looked like a layup for Vitter and it's too early to conclude that this is actually slipping away from him. But if MRI and Harper are right or if another major Democrat gets in soon, we're in for a chaotic contest.