As we can see, many people are jumping the bit about the NBC/WSJ poll showing Bernie Sanders behind Hillary Clinton by less than 10% (even tho the poll has an abnormally large sampling error). Nevermind that the other polls nationally maintain Sanders being behind by double digits. Some are saying "he's Obama 2008," and likening this race to that race.
Aside from the demographic problem with comparing Sanders to Obama, Sanders is much further behind in the endorsement primary at this point in the 2016 race than Obama was at this point in the 2008 race. I think its a problem when almost no one in the party (the people who would know well about the electoral apparatus) wants to get on board. This reminds me of something.
From 1999-2000, New Jersey Senator Bill Bradley sought the Democratic nomination against Vice President Al Gore. At similar points in 1999, for early voting states Iowa and New Hampshire, as we are in 2015, Bill Bradley was actually as, or more, competitive than Bernie Sanders is now. In New Hampshire during September 1999 (not a neighboring state for Bradley):
Bill Bradley and Vice President Al Gore are running neck and neck in New Hampshire in the race for the Democratic presidential nomination, according to a Boston Globe/WBZ-TV poll.
The poll also found that many voters in the first-primary state are eager for political change despite the economically prosperous times.
Among 400 likely Democratic primary voters, Gore led Bradley, the former New Jersey senator, by 40% to 36%, the Globe reported Sunday.
At times, Bradley
even led in New Hampshire:
Dueling town meetings 20 miles apart came on the heels of a state poll by Franklin Pierce College and TV station WNDS, showing Bradley with 43 percent support among Democrats, and Gore with 36 percent, with a 4-point margin of error. A new Newsweek magazine poll released Saturday gave Bradley a lead of 46 percent to 36 percent in the state.
Lets look
at Iowa too:
Bill Bradley has closed the gap in the Iowa race for the Democratic presidential nomination against Vice President Al Gore, according to a poll released Tuesday.
Gore had the support of 43 percent of those responding, to 40 percent for Bradley, who is a former U.S. senator from New Jersey. Seventeen percent of respondents were undecided in the survey taken last week for KCCI-TV in Des Moines. The sample of 303 likely Democratic caucus voters has a margin of error of 6 percentage points.
Some people here, when I've brought up the comparison, tried to say things like "Bill Bradley never led in Iowa or NH." (use the search function of comments to find it) DEAD WRONG, per the numbers.
Bradley even led in NJ in the pre-election year period, a state which when Bill Clinton and Al Gore carried in 1992, had not gone Dem since 1964.
Nationally, there were also points where the race got closer, and the big crowd guy had "momentum," even tho he stayed behind.
Lesson: Bernie is no Obama. When one outlier poll comes out, thats no reason to start gloating. We've seen this story before. How many states did Bill Bradley win in 2000?