GOP Sen. David Vitter
On behalf of
The Advocate and WWL, Clarus Research Group gives us our first independent poll of this contest in a long time. First up, we have a look at the
rapidly approaching Oct. 24 jungle primary:
David Vitter (R): 24
John Bel Edwards (D): 24
Scott Angelle (R): 15
Jay Dardenne (R): 14
Most polls show Vitter and Edwards taking the top two spots they'll need to advance to the Nov. 21 runoff, and this survey is no different. However, while Angelle and Dardenne are around 10 points back of Vitter, a few other polls have shown a much closer race for the second slot and an upset is by no means impossible.
The problem, though, is that Angelle and Dardenne are splitting the large bloc of Republican voters who want an alternative to Vitter. The senator knows that if one of his two intra-party foes loses too much support the other could capitalize, so he and his super PAC have been attacking them both about equally. If the two remain similarly competitive, it'll be easier for Vitter to reach the runoff.
Vitter obviously is hoping for this outcome, but so is Edwards, as you can see from the hypothetical runoff scenarios Clarus also tested:
• Vitter (R) 41, Edwards (D): 45
• Vitter (R): 35, Angelle (R): 40
• Vitter (R): 35, Dardenne (R): 42
Clarus didn't pair Edwards with the other two Republicans, but a PPP survey last week for an anti-Vitter group
gave Edwards an eye-popping 50-38 lead over the senator while he tied Angelle and only narrowly trailed Dardenne. Edwards' 4-point edge on Vitter in this latest poll isn't quite so gaudy, but it's still surprising to see him do this well in a state that's become so hostile to Democrats over the last few years. Vitter's own flaws, which long appeared to be dormant or even forgotten, almost certainly are playing a role: He's trailing his Republican rivals as well.
But as we noted last week, Edwards is also getting a boost due to the fact that no one's bothered to attack him yet. Thanks to the way going on within the GOP, Republicans have left Edwards alone. Team Red's contenders believe that they'll have a better shot in a runoff against Edwards than against a fellow Republican, so it's in their collective interest to leave Edwards be for now. But in a November runoff, we can count on the GOP spending big to link Edwards to Obama, who has long been extremely unpopular in the South.
Indeed, Edwards should be aware of the cautionary tale of independent Greg Orman, who ran for the Senate in Kansas last year. Orman faced GOP Sen. Pat Roberts, who had worn out his welcome with voters, as Vitter may have. After the Democratic nominee dropped out of the contest in early September and gave Orman a clear shot, polls initially gave Orman a decisive lead against Roberts, who had just survived a nasty primary. But Roberts and his allies relentlessly tied an Obama-shaped anvil around Orman's neck. Voters still weren't enamored with Roberts in November but they decided they preferred him to someone they came to view as an Obama proxy, and Roberts won 53-43.
We also saw similar scenarios unfold in the 2013 special election in South Carolina's 1st Congressional District and the 2014 Kentucky Senate race. Republicans Mark Sanford and Mitch McConnell were very unpopular, and they initially trailed Democrats who were largely blank slates to voters. But both Republicans turned their contests into referendums on the Obama presidency, and they each won by double digits.
If Vitter and Edwards both make it to the November runoff, we're likely to see a repeat. Vitter, like Roberts, Sanford, and McConnell, has deep liabilities, including his association with an absolutely despised Congress and his 2007 prostitution scandal, which opponents have reintroduced to voters via a series of TV ads. But once the primary is over, whichever Republican emerges has a simple and effective playbook to rely on.
Gubernatorial races do tend to be somewhat less partisan than federal contests, but in order to win, Edwards will first need Vitter to join him in the runoff, then he'll need to convince anti-Vitter Republicans who voted for Dardenne or Angelle to look past party labels and go with Edwards in the second round. It could happen, but right now, the polls showing this possibility simply can't account for the inevitable onslaught Edwards will face. Once the real battle begins, then we'll have a much better sense of whether Democrats can pull off an extremely unlikely victory.