Everest, also known as Sagarmatha or Chomolungma. The Himalaya stretches hundreds of miles and forms the northern border of Nepal. I was once told that when a Nepali child asked their mother what was on the other side, she would answer "Nothing. Those mountains mark the end of the world." On the other side is Tibet. Maybe the Tibetans would dispute that characterization. See the map below for discussion of road quality.
Just Joining this? here's the
background of Nepal's crisis.
Waiting to be rescued
In Kathmandu, the petrol crisis has reached the point where private vehicles are forbidden to buy petrol, and the airport has rescheduled flights. Yesterday I recited the catalog of hardship that seemed to be growing by the hour. In all the tweets and editorials, people are focusing on India, and saying "where is the international community?"
The answer is: The "international community" is not coming to rescue Kathmandu any time soon. Yesterday the New York Times published an editorial that said in part:
There is a real risk now that a historic opportunity for national unity and healing has been squandered. Every effort should be made to address the grievances of these groups, including amending the new Constitution to ensure their equitable participation.
That seems to be the way they all look at it.
Here's today's gem: a long piece of firsthand reporting from the Terai submitted by Prashant Jha, a first-class oracle of Nepal's feudal politics. Mr. Jha's writing starts simply enough:
In two days, Binay Chaudhary lost both his father and his son. He was mourning as a child and grieving as a parent.
Chaudhary was sitting on a chair in his courtyard; the house overlooked a pokhari, pond, one of the many which punctuate the landscape across the plains. A lean man, he was bare-chested, in a dhoti, with his head shaved off. A janau, sacred thread, was hanging across his torso.
Chaudhary was quiet for a while, before narrating his story. from: http://www.hindustantimes.com/...
From there, he brought us to Jaleshwor, Janakpur, Rajbiraj, Biratnagar, and Birgunj, all hot spots in the Terai Andolan. He paints a picture of the people and their struggles.
He gave details of the
resolve of Nepalis of the Terai to see this through. It's convenient for Nepalis of Kathmandu to make India the scapegoat for their petrol crisis. Mr Jha reinforces the message that the crisis will not end until the Nepalis of Terai are satisfied. And they are skeptical.
But for now, let's talk about something very practical. Roads. And Logistics. And of course, elephants - lots of playful baby elephants! And Everest! with heroic western mountaineers!
So click on the "continue reading" button and away we go!
Logistics Quote of the Day
“Leaders win through logistics. Vision, sure. Strategy, yes. But when you go to war, you need to have both toilet paper and bullets at the right place at the right time. In other words, you must win through superior logistics.” - Tom Peters
The statistics and the numbers and the predictions are not as much fun as the drama of protest, the high-pressure meetings in which Great Men discuss geopolitical implications, or the bravado of
Gorkhali pride.
The reality is, if one side runs out of petrol, the vehicles will stop. Nobody has invented a vehicle that will run on the exhalations of the politicians.
Among Kathmandu people there was an attitude of "So what if India is blocked, we'll just go through China." This was a fantasy. It's good that a journalist did the work to quantify the logistical challenge posed by this idea.
This diagram is just the beginning. Let's look more closely.
The above photo shows The Prithvi Highway, the road to Kathmandu, during a traffic jam a few years back. These traffic jams happen all the time, even when the political situation is normal. For my USA readers, you can imagine the chaos.
http://myrepublica.com/...
The Indian blockade along the southern customs points since the last one week has not only created shortages of essential goods and fuel but also bled the economy white, said Finance Minister Ram Sharan Mahat. The customs revenue has plunged to almost 5 percent from the usual mobilization, he said, adding that the prolonged blockade is certain to create humanitarian crisis. - See more at: http://myrepublica.com/...
Maps of Blacktopped Roads
The map below comes from the following site: http://www.slideshare.net/...
Roads in Nepal. (2011) There has been a hopeful daydream in Kathmandu that goes like this "If India blocks cargo and petrol, we can just go through China!" um, no. Not even close. There are a few entry ports, but then again there is this geographical barrier known as "The Himalaya" in the way. And on the other side? Tibet, which is largely empty. It's a long way to any major Chinese city. And the Chinese recall how Nepal worked with the US CIA, a few years back. So anybody who says it's do-able and it will happen next week, is engaging in a dream.
Please note, there are very few blacktopped roads to the north, and some of these were blocked by landslides since the earthquake. The dry port of Birgunj alone serves
700 trucks per day - the gravel road through the Himalaya will never match that capacity.
They are working hard to re-open this road to the north. It was blocked by landslide after the earthquake. Will it carry 700 trucks a day?
Here is another map:
This one shows population density. The Terai is relatively small, but much more densely populated and it's right next to India. Will they ever get their cargo and petrol from China? who are we kidding? The Terai has about 50% of the total population of the country.
The fact is, you can get from Kathmandu to Pokhara overland without going through the Terai, but you must get to the East-West Highway in the Terai to get anywhere else. Oh, you can fly from Tribhuvan International Airport to other cities - but you're not going to ship cargo that way. Without the road, Kathmandu is isolated, not just from the outside world, but from most of the rest of Nepal.
The conclusion about China
If you add up all these things, it is obvious that China is not going to solve the present problem in any way.
Flying in petrol using special tanker planes?
The government is said to be "exploring the idea." Do they have the planes? How much does it cost to buy one? Can somebody fly them? where will they refuel? From India? If you ponder all these issues, you will see that whoever said they were "exploring" was a polite person who did not want to disappoint the person asking the question.
Here is something else to consider. To open that road to China will require petrol, lots of petrol. Moving heavy equipment hundreds of miles and running it all day long. Is that the best place to allocate the small stock of remaining petrol? On a project that will open "too little, too late?" Why not use that petrol to bring food to victims of the earthquake in Sindhupalchowk?
A heroic accomplishment of the Terai Andolan
The fact remains, as I wrote a week ago, that choking the Prithvi Highhway is a way to lay siege to Kathmandu, from 108 miles away. It's been tried before, by the Maoists, but never caused as much hardship as it is now doing. It's a historic event, up there with epic sieges of history, and will have far-reaching consequences.
Before I forget
Babar and Celeste are the stars of a series of beloved children's books from France. If Babar was in Kathmandu today, he would be riding his bike to save petrol. I don't mean to make light of the hardship that people are experiencing, but I did promise my American readers some kind of elephant picture - they will only read about Nepal when there are pictures of Elephants and/or Everest, or so it seems. I wish it were otherwise. Most Americans will happily come to Nepal's aid if there's another earthquake, but - for now - an elephant.
Today's Bollywood
To ease the pain of Bollywood-blocking, click on this link.
There may be developments in the next day or two regarding amendments to the constitution, or perhaps an agreement. Who knows. Let's send the negotiators good karma.
While the Nepalis of the Terai and the Nepalis of Kathmandu government are engaging in this test of wills over a failed constitution, the rest of the problems of the country are not being addressed. Tourism will suffer, bringing in fewer rupees, renminbi, euros, and dollars.
Let's all pray that this crisis is resolved and that Nepal will become a prosperous democracy.