Joaquin deepened into a Category 4 hurricane as it crawled over the central Bahamas today, while many models shifted eastward indicating an out to sea track for the future.
THE BASICS
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE JOAQUIN MEANDERING
OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.9N 74.6W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM ESE OF CLARENCE TOWN LONG ISLAND BAHAMAS
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM S OF SAN SALVADOR
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...935 MB...27.61 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Central Bahamas
* Northwestern Bahamas including the Abacos, Berry Islands,
Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence
* The Acklins, Crooked Island, and Mayaguana in the southeastern
Bahamas
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Bimini
* Andros Island
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Remainder of the southeastern Bahamas including the Turks and
Caicos Islands
* Andros Island
* Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Los Tunas, Holguin, and Guantanamo
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Joaquin. A
Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watch may be required on Friday.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Joaquin was
located near latitude 22.9 North, longitude 74.6 West. Joaquin is
moving toward the west near 3 mph (6 km/h). A turn toward the north
is expected on Friday, and a faster motion toward the north or
north-northeast is expected Friday night and Saturday. On the
forecast track, the core of strongest winds of Joaquin will move
near or over portions of the central Bahamas tonight and pass near
or over portions of the northwestern Bahamas on Friday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts. Joaquin is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some strengthening is possible tonight and
Friday, with some fluctuations in intensity possible Friday night
and Saturday.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (85 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles
(335 km).
The latest minimum central pressure estimated from reconnaissance
aircraft data is 935 mb (27.61 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to continue across portions
of the central and southeastern Bahamas through Friday. Hurricane
conditions are expected over portions of the northwestern Bahamas
tonight and Friday. Tropical storm conditions will affect other
portions of the southeastern Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos
Islands through Friday. Tropical storm conditions are expected
over portions of eastern Cuba through Friday morning.
STORM SURGE: A very dangerous and life-threatening storm surge will
raise water levels by as much as 6 to 12 feet above normal tide
levels in the central Bahamas in areas of onshore flow. A storm
surge of 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels is expected in the
remainder of the Bahamas within the hurricane warning area. Near
the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous
waves.
RAINFALL: Joaquin is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 12 to 18 inches over the central Bahamas with isolated maximum
amounts of 25 inches. Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches are
expected over the southeastern Bahamas, with 2 to 4 inches over the
northwestern Bahamas. This rainfall could result in life-threatening
flash floods. Outer rain bands of Joaquin may affect portions of
eastern Cuba, Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and the Turks and
Caicos Islands through Friday.
SURF: Swells generated by Joaquin will affect portions of the
Bahamas during the next few days, and will begin to affect portions
of the southeastern coast of the United States tonight and spread
northward through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Regardless of
Joaquin's track, a prolonged period of elevated water levels and
large waves will affect the mid-Atlantic region, causing significant
beach and dune erosion with moderate coastal flooding likely. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.
and the discussion.
HURRICANE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015
1100 PM EDT THU OCT 01 2015
The eye of Joaquin contracted in satellite imagery late this
afternoon, but has become obscured by cirrus clouds since that time.
Recent microwave imagery and aircraft observations have not shown
any indications of an eyewall replacement, but the intensity appears
to have leveled off for now. The aircraft has measured peak 700-mb
flight-level winds of 123 kt and reliable SFMR surface winds of 116
kt, which support an initial wind speed of 115 kt. Satellite images
show that the outflow is well established over the hurricane and
some additional strengthening is possible during the next 12 hours
or so. After that time, there could be some fluctuations in
intensity due to eyewall replacement cycles. Joaquin is forecast to
encounter increasing southwesterly shear in 2 to 3 days, which is
expected to cause some weakening during that time. However, Joaquin
is expected to remain a large and powerful hurricane for the next
several days. The NHC intensity forecast is near the upper-end of
the guidance in the short-term, and is close to the intensity
consensus throughout the remainder of the forecast period.
Recent reconnaissance fixes suggest that Joaquin has turned westward
and slowed down, with an initial motion of 260/3. The mid- to
upper-level ridge that has been steering Joaquin southwestward is
expected to quickly weaken overnight while a mid- to upper-level
trough over the southeastern United States deepens and cuts off.
This should cause Joaquin to turn northward on Friday, and move
north-northeastward at a faster forward speed Friday night and
Saturday. The model envelope has again shifted eastward, with the
GFDL and NAVGEM models now joining the other dynamical models which
keep Joaquin offshore of the United States east coast. This has
required another eastward shift to the NHC forecast, but it still
lies to the west of the multi-model consensus and the most recent
runs of the GFS and ECMWF models. The updated track is closest to
the GFS ensemble mean. Additional eastward adjustments could be
required to the official forecast overnight.
Surface and reconnaissance aircraft data indicate that Joaquin's
wind field has expanded during the past 24 hours. The initial and
forecast wind radii have been adjusted outward accordingly. The
increase in size has resulted in the issuance of a Tropical Storm
Warning for eastern Cuba where wind gusts above tropical-storm-
force have already been observed.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Joaquin's slow motion means that extremely dangerous conditions
will continue over portions of the warning areas in the Bahamas well
into Friday.
2. The forecast models continue to indicate a track farther away
from the United States east coast and the threat of direct impacts
from Joaquin in the Carolinas and mid-Atlantic states appears to be
decreasing. However, the threat of impacts in Bermuda has increased
and a Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watch could be required for that
island on Friday.
3. Efforts to provide the forecast models with as much data as
possible continue, with twice daily NOAA G-IV jet missions in the
storm environment, and extra NWS balloon launches.
4. Even if Joaquin moves out to sea, strong onshore winds
associated with a frontal system will create minor to moderate
coastal flooding along the coasts of the mid-Atlantic and
northeastern states through the weekend. In addition, very heavy
rains, not associated with Joaquin, are expected to produce flooding
over portions of the Atlantic coastal states. Please see products
issued by local NWS Forecast Offices.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/0300Z 22.9N 74.6W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 02/1200Z 23.2N 74.7W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 03/0000Z 24.7N 74.4W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 03/1200Z 26.6N 73.4W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 04/0000Z 29.0N 72.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 05/0000Z 33.4N 70.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 06/0000Z 37.0N 68.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 07/0000Z 42.0N 61.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
Before we get into the forecast, let's get into what's happening right now.
The central Bahamas are getting absolutely slammed.
The eye of the hurricane crossed Samana Cay this morning and afternoon. Samana Cay is officially uninhabited but apparently there were people from a neighboring island visiting as they occasionally do to gather resources. There is no word on their welfare. Meanwhile storm surge flooding has swamped Acklins Island. A weather station on the island was reporting sustained Category 3 conditions--before the station lost power or was destroyed.
The hurricane will crawl through the Bahamas as it begins to turn late tonight and during the day tomorrow. Even though it's forecasted to remain east of Nassau it may come uncomfortably close to New Providence island, where the vast majority of Bahamian citizens live, as a still severe hurricane (webcams out of Nassau right now indicate a fairly nice, albeit breezy day right now)
Islands in the Bahamas have experienced hurricane conditions, some very severe, since yesterday. San Salvador reported Category 2 conditions last night until the station failed (by either power outage, or its destruction.)
The hurricane caught people by surprise.
PRIME Minister Perry Christie said on Thursday that the government has to use the impact of Hurricane Joaquin as a “teachable moment”, adding that his administration must also implement a process where dangerous weather systems do not catch people by surprise.
#“We have to see this again as a teachable moment and to ensure that provisions are put in place to not have a repeat of the same mistake,” he told reporters on Thursday. “Look, we are dealing with it as best as we can and we are prepared to dedicate all of the resources necessary to deal with the situation and hopefully we will be able to come out with minimal damage to land and no damage to the people.”
#Mr Christie was speaking to reporters after attending a service honouring straw market vendors. His administration has faced criticism for not being more aggressive in helping people in the southern Bahamas, such as Acklins and Crooked Island, who are reportedly currently experiencing heavy flooding and storm surges from the hurricane. Joaquin strengthened into a dangerous category four hurricane as of 2pm today, according to the US’ National Hurricane Center.
#He added: “We have to, firstly, learn from any experience where people are caught by surprise because as an island nation we have to depend and put in place a process that will ensure immediately we are informed that danger may come which means that people are not to be caught by surprise to the extent that they cannot reach telephone, cannot put in place protection for their homes and other assets. And so the first point I'd make that since this time we've had a full report on what has taken place.”
The Bahamas have experienced many hurricanes in the past, many of them severe. I can't think of one off the top of my head that took many days to pass through, and subjected portions of the islands to a sustained major pounding. Construction there is good and the country is generally not impoverished but keep them in your thoughts. This is likely a devastating hit.
THEN WHAT?
It's actually simple now.
Either an upper level low over the Atlantic provides an escape route, sending Joaquin off to the northeast and out to sea, or an upper level low and a negatively tilted trough over the southeastern US captures the hurricane and propels it inland somewhere between North Carolina and New Jersey.
I can also say with some confidence that it's not going to Florida.
What's complicated are the details.
Detail one: It's going to rain.
Dennis Mersereau was kind enough to let me borrow his rainfall map and you can read his thoughts here. Take a look. This is going to happen even if Joaquin goes out to sea. The stage is being set right now. Charleston, SC is flooding right now as a nor'easter develops thanks to the energy of this upper level low.
This is going to happen because of one of the upper level lows will cut off over the southeast. The interaction between this low and the hurricane will suck a huge plume into the Carolinas. In short, a devastating flood will ensue.
The biggest killer in hurricanes around the world is not wind, it's water. Inland freshwater flooding is a serious concern, so much so that North Carolina is under a state of emergency. And the rains will continue north into Virginia and the rest of the Atlantic.
Detail two: There will be wind along the coast that will raise seas and cause beach erosion and coastal flooding. Part one of this is a nor'easter developing now and overnight. Then Joaquin's slow movement up the coast as it heads out to sea. This is going to last for several days, through several high tide cycles. This nor'easter is not going to be an average one. It may in fact be a preview of what El Nino will throw up the coast this coming winter.
WHAT ABOUT THE HURRICANE?
I know it's not going to Florida, that's locked in. Nothing is getting through that trough, which is still digging all the way into the Yucatan. It's the atmospheric equivalent of a wall.
I know it will continue to pummel the Bahamas through tomorrow. That's also locked in. Please keep them in your thoughts.
What happens after it turns, remains to be seen. Most model guidance this afternoon has shifted to the east. Very few indicate a landfall in the United States. But this is not yet a done deal.
I am almost leaning toward an out-to-sea solution, although both Bermuda and Atlantic Canada would be in Joaquin's future path. This is still a low confidence forecast. Regardless, from tomorrow through Tuesday, weather along the US East Coast will be exceptionally ugly and inland flooding in the Carolinas northward could be catastrophic. Now's the time to get prepared, so do so.
WHAT IF IT DOES HIT THE US?
The GFDL model still takes Joaquin inland around Norfolk on Monday but of the models that still forecast a landfall, there's still a spread from South Carolina through New England. Even that is uncertain.
I favor the GFDL's solution (if it hits, which is looking increasingly unlikely) because of the location of an upper level low and the trough expected to negatively tilt, plus the GFDL's been persistent for the last couple days with this landfall location. If it happens effects would be similar to some extent to 2003's Hurricane Isabel. However the GFDL has a slow moving hurricane meandering up through Chesapeake Bay and then moving northeast. The resulting rainfall would be incredible.
Updates through 11pm tonight and a new update tomorrow.
UPDATE 1: The government of Cuba has issued a tropical storm warning for its eastern provinces.
UPDATE 2:
Updated with the 11pm cone, advisory, and discussion. The coastal flood impacts are still going to be significant, as well as the flooding rains.