Because the House isn't already screwed up enough, Speaker John Boehner has decided to
postpone the floor vote for his position until the end of the month, just prior to his departure, though the secret-ballot election within just the Republican conference will still go forward this Thursday, October 8. The elections for the remaining positions have been postponed indefinitely. What does all that mean for the future leadership?
Who knows?
Votes on a new majority leader and whip will not take place until after the full House votes to elect a new Speaker on Oct 29 — the day before Boehner is to resign. It's possible those elections won't take place at all.
Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) is favored to win the Speakership vote, but Rep. Jason Chaffetz (R-Utah) insists the leader won't have the 218 votes necessary to win on the floor. Chaffetz on Sunday announced a late bid for the job. Rep. Daniel Webster (R-Fla.) is also running.
While the Speaker nominee will only need 124 votes to win the internal GOP conference election, they must secure 218 votes during the House floor vote. It's possible conservatives determined to prevent McCarthy from winning could withhold support at that time.
That could mean that team McCarthy is convinced they've got the 124, and ultimately 218, votes that he'll need to win, and they want to shut down the upstart Chaffetz as soon as possible. But, the intervening three weeks between the secret, all-Republican vote for speaker Thursday and the official floor vote on the 29th also creates the possibility of vote-switching between now and then. And that has implications for how much room Boehner feels he has to try to fix stuff before he goes—whether getting a budget deal in place or raising the debt ceiling.
In announcing this change, Boehner said that the "new process will ensure House Republicans have a strong, unified team to lead our conference and focus on the American people's priorities." That might mean he actually is thinking about what's best for the country and would work to make sure we don't default on our debt and the government doesn't shut down in December. Doing that could tank McCarthy's chances with any member who might be leaning Chaffetz, since his position in leadership links him inextricably to Boehner. On the other hand, it could help McCarthy secure all the Democratic votes he'd need at the end of the month.
As usual, whatever Boehner is doing here is questionable, and generally means that the last month of Boehner's tenure is going to be just as chaotic as the last five years.