RGA ad attacking Democrat John Bel Edwards
Well, maybe national Republicans actually are worried about a Democratic upset next month. The Republican Governors Association is making its first foray into the state by launching a $1 million ad buy that will run until the Oct. 24 jungle primary. Their first spot attacks Democrat John Bel Edwards pretty much the exact way we knew Team Red would attack him: The narrator accuses Edwards, a self described conservative Democrat, of being an "Obama liberal," and argues he wrote the bill "to expand Obamacare in Louisiana," and wants to raise taxes.
Polls consistently show Edwards and Republican David Vitter securing the two spots in the jungle primary that would sent them to a Nov. 21 runoff, and it's very unlikely that the RGA thinks they can knock Edwards down to third place. But a recent independent poll gave Edwards a 44-41 lead against Vitter in the likely runoff, and another survey for an anti-Edwards group had the Democrat up 50-38. Until now, Edwards has been able to skate by without taking any major blows from Vitter or Jay Dardenne and Scott Angelle: All three Republicans believe that they'll have an easier time in the runoff against Edwards than against a fellow Republican in this red state, and they're content to leave Edwards alone for now.
We expected Vitter and his allies to wait until the jungle primary was over before they turned their sights on Edwards. But national Republicans seem to think that if they don't start attacking Edwards now, they may not have enough time to effectively define him as an Obama lackey in the month between the jungle primary and the runoff. It also doesn't help Team Red that Vitter has been taking some damage, especially over his 2007 prostitution scandal, and he may be limping into the runoff with weak favorable ratings. Edwards will now need to prove a bit earlier than he expected that he can stay competitive with Vitter once the GOP attacks begin.
While Vitter looks set to advance to the runoff, his GOP foes aren't giving up. Dardenne is out with a new spot where he speaks to the camera and decries "Washington style politics," and follow him "beyond politics and anger." Dardenne doesn't mention any of his opponents, but it's clear he's contrasting himself with Vitter.